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Pattern Fabulous February

IF Feb through the 18th is as warm as the GEFS suggests, 2018-9 will have a very high chance to be a top 3 warmest and legit shot at being THE warmest El Nino DJF at KATL of some 47 or so of them. The current warmest is 2015-6. Wouldn't that be amazing after such cold predictions by the Pioneer/JB and other models like several Euro monthlies last fall?

Edit: IF this happens, it would likely become THE worst SE DJF temperature forecasting debacle by the model consensus in history. I can't recall a winter that had so many solidly to very cold SE forecasts that ended up being very warm. We may be looking at a +5 DJF at KATL vs JB's latest forecast of about -4.5 there (earlier one had -5). So, it could end up being a +10 miss!!! Predicting a near top 10 cold and instead getting a near top 10 warm? Insane.
 
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Geez bro this makes me want to pull my fro out, imagine if we had a +PNA, weaker SER, look at that 50/50, and strong epo ridge in AK, what a waste, things can never go right, if -PNA/strong SER continues, we’re not getting much winter wx unless you get lucky with a HP to your north that has some staying power, but that would really be threading the needle
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I said I wouldn't stay up for the EPS, but I was wrong. It continues to be day and night vs both the near record warm GEFS and the very warm GEPS with near normal temps in the SE 2/13+. It has cold not too many 100s of miles NW of us and very cold in the Midwest and Plains thanks to many days of cross polar flow into the NW US. That pattern would not only need to verify but also would need to shift to get the SE into the cold. This is so La Ninalike!
 
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GaWx said:
I said I wouldn't stay up for the EPS, but I was wrong. It continues to be day and night vs both the near record warm GEFS and the very warm GEPS with near normal temps in the SE 2/13+. It has cold not too many 100s of miles NW of us and very cold in the Midwest and Plains thanks to many days of cross polar flow into the NW US. That pattern would not only need to verify but also would need to shift to get the SE into the cold.
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Eps also begins to weaken the SER down by hour 240 and troughiness looks to be on the move, also has a taller EPO ridge, I can’t see past hour 240 on there
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Eps also begins to weaken the SER down by hour 240 and troughiness looks to be on the move, also has a taller EPO ridge, I can’t see past hour 240 on there
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The 360 hour EPS still has WSW flow from N Mexico into the SE and what I'd call a weak SER still hanging on not too dissimilar to the 240 hour map you posted. So, it never goes away. So, there'd still need to be a shift to get the cold into the SE. It's just that it wouldn't be very warm like the GEFS and warm like the GEPS have. It is near normal.
 
GaWx said:
IF Feb through the 18th is as warm as the GEFS suggests, 2018-9 will have a very high chance to be a top 3 warmest and legit shot at being THE warmest El Nino DJF at KATL of some 47 or so of them. The current warmest is 2015-6. Wouldn't that be amazing after such cold predictions by the Pioneer/JB and other models like several Euro monthlies last fall?

Edit: IF this happens, it would likely become THE worst SE DJF temperature forecasting debacle by the model consensus in history. I can't recall a winter that had so many solidly to very cold SE forecasts that ended up being very warm. We may be looking at a +5 DJF at KATL vs JB's latest forecast of about -4.5 there (earlier one had -5). So, it could end up being a +10 miss!!! Predicting a near top 10 cold and instead getting a near top 10 warm? Insane.
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this winter is quickly headed for a giant F to me... it wouldnt be so bad if it wasn't hyped to death but I mean come on now... all I heard for months was how great it was gonna be, every snowy analog we've ever had was dug up and analyzed and we have had 5 minutes of flakes and a minimum LOW in the mid 20s... it's embarassing
 
Brent said:
this winter is quickly headed for a giant F to me... it wouldnt be so bad if it wasn't hyped to death but I mean come on now... all I heard for months was how great it was gonna be, every snowy analog we've ever had was dug up and analyzed and we have had 5 minutes of flakes and a minimum LOW in the mid 20s... it's embarassing
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if the GEFS/GEPS is correct watch for where the dryline will set up in the future, forget winter wx
 
I can't believe the cold snap in mid-November may have been the most impressive(I mean it almost snowed then, one of the earliest ever)... before it was even winter lol the averages were way higher then

and the irony is when it happened everyone said "just imagine that in January"

such a waste
 
EPS took a step towards the GEFS with the trough over the east coast of Russia lifting up more towards the Bering Sea and NE Siberia, causing the downstream ridge-trough couplet over the NE Pacific and western North America to shift westaward, giving more room for the SE to expand.

This is not what we want to see.

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The EPS has nice -EPO, -AO, and Greenland blocking, but unfortunately it also has decent SER blocking, which is trumping them all for the SE preventing the cold from making it there and instead just allow for near normal.

I need to get to bed. Night night!
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS took a step towards the GEFS with the trough over the east coast of Russia lifting up more towards the Bering Sea and NE Siberia, causing the downstream ridge-trough couplet over the NE Pacific and western North America to shift westaward, giving more room for the SE to expand.

This is not what we want to see.

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I just saw that and was about to say the same, damn, what a fail this winter has been and will likely be, I keep on saying this but I really appreciate the 6” of snow i got back in December
 
One last thing: the EPS is a great example of why the correlation of a -EPO and SE cold isn't all that strong and not as strong as the correlation of a +PNA and SE cold. The correlation of -EPO to cold is a good bit stronger in the Midwest than it is in the SE. Night night.
 
We went through this in mid Dec to mid January. Big trough from AK towards Siberia. This took us weeks to get out of then and in previous winters when this occurs. It was mildly interesting yesterday with the EPS building a poleward EPO but it backed off that as Webb pointed out.


GEFS Ensembles undefined undefined 360.png

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Hot off the press from none other than JB, His conclusion remains the same
He believes SOI crash is coming and the MJO into 8.
Also he still thinks strongest positive develop over Greenland mid Feb into March!
core of widespread severe cold in west and plains but pushing out front with the cold to the east coast except the southeast, ( which should lead to plenty of winter weather events southern place to New England) then the core of this shifting southeast for Feb 15-Mar 14

He's not backing down YET!!! lol Let's hope he's right!!
 
Kylo said:
We went through this in mid Dec to mid January. Big trough from AK towards Siberia. This took us weeks to get out of then and in previous winters when this occurs. It was mildly interesting yesterday with the EPS building a poleward EPO but it backed off that as Webb pointed out.


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It doesn’t look like it’s backing off. Day 15 vs latest Day 12 (this is probably a later time period if you’re referring to the under a day 10 period Webb posted about) but in any event this is significant change in 3 days and outside of Day 12 nonetheless. We have time...
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So this is the Fab February thread? I was lost for a moment
 
The big thing that keeps me hopeful is the fact that the Feb 15-Mar 7 period has been kind to our area over the last 30 years. Obviously this has no reflection on the current weather but statistically is a higher than normal 3 week period

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There’s no fantasy storms on the FV3 and GFS until it makes a move to the euro EPS solution. This 10-15 Day is brutal. Until this ensemble flips, if it does at all, don’t bother looking at GEFS snowfall. If it caves the the EPS, snowfall members will come back.
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Jon said:
There’s no fantasy storms on the FV3 and GFS until it makes a move to the euro EPS solution. This 10-15 Day is brutal. Until this ensemble flips, if it does at all, don’t bother looking at GEFS snowfall. If it caves the the EPS, snowfall members will come back.
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Jon,
It scares a Curmudgeon when you post warm maps ... :eek:
 
Well, now the storm went poof on the models, and looks like my theory of not getting anymore snow here after having a big storm might hold true this winter. Not sure why that happens, but it just does. Glad I got the big storm in December, but it's like winning the ACC regular season and tournament, getting a one seed in the big dance, and then losing in the first round. We pulled a UVA.
 
Jon said:
There’s no fantasy storms on the FV3 and GFS until it makes a move to the euro EPS solution. This 10-15 Day is brutal. Until this ensemble flips, if it does at all, don’t bother looking at GEFS snowfall. If it caves the the EPS, snowfall members will come back.
bc4f852fdebc752b7b4a4050e0a23b36.jpg

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I'll see your five and raise you ten ...

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RollTide18 said:
So even with that awful bust of a storm last week, some places in the deep south got nearly half of the snow Boston has gotten this winter, thats amazing.
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Exactly and many areas in NC are spanking the NE US 95 corridor besides the DC area. Certainly makes the recent fail whales sting a lot less knowing your counterparts to the N with way better climo are getting next to nothing by their standards
 
Tarheel1 said:
DTs on the JB train! Sad!? Saying 7 other models caved to the Euro??View attachment 14775
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The EPS hopefully and likely has the upper hand now. (The CMC and JMA totally suck imho as far as MJO prediction abilities in general, but that’s beside the point and they have tended to be somewhat closer to the EPS than the GEFS from my recall.) Despite the GEFS moving in the direction of the EPS, GEFS and EPS are still far different with the GEFS going backward into moderate amplitude phase 6 through 2/9 while the EPS is then into the COD. The GEFS then goes into high amplitude 7 and 8 while the EPS is in low amp 7, 8, and 1 (by the way GEFS has been horrible recently while EPS has been much steadier in comparison):




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Myfrotho704_ said:
What @Webberweather53 mentioned yesterday but ridge/trough is moving west allowing for a more expansive SER...... only keeps trending stronger as time gets closer
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Yeah, the trends in the GEFS have been most disturbing. The hope is that it is totally out to lunch. With its MJO still quite different from that of the EPS, that is not a far-fetched hope. Today’s 12Z EPS will be quite telling to me. Does it cave to the GEFS idea of a stronger SER? If so, the rest of Feb would obviously be getting closer to “toast” territory as I have had a very hard time finding Febs that in the SE were very warm through the midpoint and turned much colder for an extended time in the 2nd half. I actually found no Febs that did that. But OTOH, if the 12Z EPS not only were to maintain its 0Z position but also were to weaken the SER further, it would mean there’s still a decent chance for winter to return to the SE this month in a big way. By the way, the GEPS is in the middle but even it is quite warm in the SE, MidAtlantic, and NE for the 11-15 day period. That’s not good. So, EPS is on its own.

Edit: think of the positive if EPS caves. We’d have a good shot at having one of the warmest 3 SE El Niño DJFs on record and even a shot at THE warmest El Niño at at least KATL. That would be amazing (though not at all desirable) considering how cold the consensus was for the SE.
 
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One positive on the GEFS is the pac ridge weakens and allows trough to pull back far enough west and heights lower in SE. And of course NAO but we know that won’t happen

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