Storm5
Member
Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
To show how warm models/forecasts were as of 1/3/19 for 1/8-17/19, check the image below for the 1/3/19 Radiant 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts as well as what both the GEFS and EPS had (below their forecasts): +4 to +5 for ATL and RDU. What ended up happening? ATL was right at normal and RDU -2. RDU got a big snow, also. So, the forecasts/models ended up verifying about 5 too warm. So, that would be comparable to looking now at 2/8-17. Folks, when you consider big model misses like this, 2/8-17 is still an eternity away.
Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
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Definitely can see that ice signal in cad areas, it appeared more ensemble members had ice/sleet for CAD areas aswell, hmmm
Storm5
Member
Fv3vs gfs same time 
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GEFS is garbage past 7 days. Barely usable inside 7Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
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pcbjr
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Why? The only big storm we had it had it a week out.
Now contrast the above to the forecasts/models of yesterday in the image at the bottom below: there’s much colder air available to tap not too far to our NW in contrast to virtually no cold air showing up anywhere in the US as of 1/3 looking out 6-15 days. But still, NC got a big snow just 9-10 days later and the SE as a whole got to a little colder than normal. What happens if the models end up being way too warm once again in the SE US, this time due to much too strong of a SER? This EPS MJO forecast of low amp left side makes me wonder:
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Gefs says the FV3 is on crack
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Yeah, it did awesome with the snow we were supposed to have this week, while the models didn't have anything. Guess which ones were right?
It’s whiffed on other storms this winter and sucks at H5, I gotta say tho it does do well with CAD storms
The thing about the FV3 is it did nail the Dec storm from downtown and has proven to nail surface conditions at 7 day leads but we just don’t know enough about it in these pattern change scenarios I don’t think. Imo it just doesn’t have that kind of merit just yet
By hour 216, it looked weaker than same time last run, maybe baby steps ?
As you know we have 2 camps. GEFS says no winter left (or really one for that matter) EPS says JB hang on we have more winter left.
pcbjr
Member
Agree, Larry, except the 18Z does drop Hogtown one last freeze at the end of the run ... so I'm tossing, but keeping it in the recycle bin for a tad bit ...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
All I know is the storm threats we were supposed to have this week kept showing on the ensembles even know the ops didn't show anything, and people kept saying as long as the ensembles show snow then don't worry about the ops. Well, the ops turned out to be right and nothing happened this week. So, I don't know why we should be putting so much weight on the ensembles now and dismissing the ops.
It very well might be the other way round next time. I think there isn’t always a really good understanding of how to use the ensembles or even what they actually are.
MichaelJ
Member
I think JB and MANY others have busted badly on the temps for the SE but oddly enough, some areas are well within reach of the 167% of normal for snow. Personally I believe most of us will see some more wintry precip, maybe a couple of times, in the next 3-6 weeks after a stout warmup the next 2 weeks. Overall I believe the MJO is going into the phase 8 region and then 1 and 2 will happen (like the EURO predicts) and blocking will set up in a good location for most of us. Obviously long range forecasting. (much like most global warming model predictions) are still not to be trusted for the most part because the influencing factors have not been quite figured out yet.
Storm5
Member
The FV3 has been crap . Of course you love cause it one storm right in December that gave your backyard snow
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Storm5
Member
The FV3 was showing two storms in the western part of the southeast east a week and a half ago . It busted on both of them
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NCSNOW
Member
FV3 isnt alone. 12z CFS says next Saturday ought to be fun as well. Get your Milk n Bread lol.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The ensembles were crap for this week.
NCSNOW
Member
Also Heres the GDPS 12z today. This time frame (next weekend) has popped up alot on&off on models for several days. No way saying its legit, but it isnt a hiccup that just popped up today out of the blue.
Edit: Could also slap the 18z GFS hr 168 & 12zGFS same time. Summary theres alot of barking by the models. Euro has nice 1040 hp building in through NE same time, but it is dry at the surface.
Edit: Could also slap the 18z GFS hr 168 & 12zGFS same time. Summary theres alot of barking by the models. Euro has nice 1040 hp building in through NE same time, but it is dry at the surface.
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If that happens, I'm calling JB!
I would be totally shocked if we didn't see at least one more winter storm!!!
pcbjr
Member
Good night folks; enjoy Sunday ...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Maybe it just does really well for CAD storms in NC.
Storm5
Member
Brent
Member
Yup still waiting for all that FV GFS snow
Gfs has a in-situ CAD, kinda looks like that January ice event for N.C., honestly fits the pattern , get a high pressure that will hit a red light in the NE than once precip starts here it hits the dash
Failboat version 3 holds on to the backdoor cold front idea that changes things over but it’s way less impressive and looks to be a massive cutter developing after this storm
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Jessy89
Member
Just like that fv3 has no storm. Very bad models this year
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Not even an inkling of hope if you buy what the GEFS is selling. Ridge city beginning to end. I’d advise you guys not to even look at it. It’s a heavy burden to bear
Jessy89
Member
That’s the most likely outcome the remainder of winter
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accu35
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Fv3 has western parts of southeast storm, FWIW
The 0Z GEFS is going for what would likely be a top 5 warmest KATL 2/1-18 on record. that's what a persistent -PNA/SER can do in the SE. I hope it is wrong!
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Hot off the press from Larry Cosgrove:
"I will admit that some of the recent weather model output has concerned me. There is the matter of the heat ridge over FL, The Bahamas, and Cuba, which the GFS and GGEM series insist will bring an early end to winter across the eastern half of the nation (say roughly to the right of a Chicago IL to Dallas TX line). But the dissenting ECMWF suite seems to recognize suppression of the subtropical high to the Caribbean Sea side, due partly by intense storms and increased ridging in the vicinity of Alaska and Greenland. Since the European panels have been consistent with this scenario for quite a few runs, I lean toward its colder solution.
With the weakening El Nino trying to assume a Modoki signal before dispersing in late spring (more on that later), there should be more opportunities in February to have cold troughs dominate the lower 48 states. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is not cooperating as of now (weakening and not linked to the polar jet stream), but may do so as a larger trough moves off of the Asian mainland in about a week or so. Last, but not least, the vast snow cover will continue to generate immense cold air that would be pulled south into the U.S. with an active southern/eastern storm track shown by the CFS and ECMWF weeklies. There is a risk for a significant cyclone in this arrangement around February 15 - 17.
But for all of this to happen, two things must be evident. That the European series is correct (because the other main ensemble packages will make snow lovers over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states cry), and the heat ridge complex drops down below the Greater Antilles. The latter feature is the kiss of death for winter, which looks to be the case next month as the subtropical high will almost surely expand or move northward into Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. But before that happens, in theory colder air could still dominate much of the U.S. before about March, when the analog sets shows a strong retreat of cP and cA values."
"I will admit that some of the recent weather model output has concerned me. There is the matter of the heat ridge over FL, The Bahamas, and Cuba, which the GFS and GGEM series insist will bring an early end to winter across the eastern half of the nation (say roughly to the right of a Chicago IL to Dallas TX line). But the dissenting ECMWF suite seems to recognize suppression of the subtropical high to the Caribbean Sea side, due partly by intense storms and increased ridging in the vicinity of Alaska and Greenland. Since the European panels have been consistent with this scenario for quite a few runs, I lean toward its colder solution.
With the weakening El Nino trying to assume a Modoki signal before dispersing in late spring (more on that later), there should be more opportunities in February to have cold troughs dominate the lower 48 states. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is not cooperating as of now (weakening and not linked to the polar jet stream), but may do so as a larger trough moves off of the Asian mainland in about a week or so. Last, but not least, the vast snow cover will continue to generate immense cold air that would be pulled south into the U.S. with an active southern/eastern storm track shown by the CFS and ECMWF weeklies. There is a risk for a significant cyclone in this arrangement around February 15 - 17.
But for all of this to happen, two things must be evident. That the European series is correct (because the other main ensemble packages will make snow lovers over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states cry), and the heat ridge complex drops down below the Greater Antilles. The latter feature is the kiss of death for winter, which looks to be the case next month as the subtropical high will almost surely expand or move northward into Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. But before that happens, in theory colder air could still dominate much of the U.S. before about March, when the analog sets shows a strong retreat of cP and cA values."
Brent
Member
maybe the stupid groundhog was right...
even here the Euro is trending warmer and warmer
even here the Euro is trending warmer and warmer
Nothing wrong with the euro run more cold than the Gfs at the end of the run which would be the 13th ... easy to get a good storm track a day or so after the euro