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Pattern Fabulous February

Webberweather53 said:
If you're looking for a little glimmer of hope or a way out of this pattern in the next 10 days, keep looking, because the torch is only getting worse w/ time.


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That's downright ugly... there is no sugarcoating that one. Only thing we can hope for is that it is still 8 days away and there are some big highs modeled to be in southern Canada. Perhaps we can get some backdoor cold front action / Cad.
 
Both GFS and FortniteV3, have the next weekend storm! Just a few tweaks and we’re golden! Both have a 1045,1049 respectively, in SE Canada, all you can ask for!!22F3806B-BAA5-49EE-95AB-B462C745AD70.png04D1EA09-0D1A-4371-8B32-2FC9C135BD72.png
 
Impressive spread between 2m and 850 anomalies on the NAM towards the end of the run. Positive 850s up to southern WI while negative 2Ms are down into southern MO. Obviously, a shallow artic airmass in play. These are consistently handled very poorly by the globals in general so like i was saying yesterday, I believe surface temps end of the week into next weekend are going to end up much colder than currently shown for the Southeast US.


2m anomalies NAM vs GFS for Tuesday evening are night and day for OK, KS, MO, IA, and IL.
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I’ll be In Richmond Virginia the 10th-14th I can assure you this won’t verify
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Lol everyone canceling winter and both Gfs and Fv3 have TWO winter storms hitting NC and even part of south east BEFORE hour 240 ... cmc also support the first winter storm ... everyone always throws the towel in when models give us a WEEK of warm weather ... lol come on guys get a spine and remember models always go back colder
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Lol everyone canceling winter and both Gfs and Fv3 have TWO winter storms hitting NC and even part of south east BEFORE hour 240 ... cmc also support the first winter storm ... everyone always throws the towel in when models give us a WEEK of warm weather ... lol come on guys get a spine and remember models always go back colder
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Hell, we could get a winter storm if were lucky, but that southeast ridge is no joke, Going to be tough for the rest of the southeast to score, looks like there’s a backdoor cold front that changes things over as @Cad Wedge NC said is the way we will have to score, this just argues more IP/ZR if it was to be wintry
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yes NC still has a chance, you always do. Where is the threat for AL, SC and Ga?


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Exactly winter is probably over for everyone outside of North Carolina. I see more cold rain opportunities coming up. It’s been a very boring winter pattern we been stuck in. But as always I’ll continue to watch and learn


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Jessy89 said:
Exactly winter is probably over for everyone outside of North Carolina. I see more cold rain opportunities coming up. It’s been a very boring winter pattern we been stuck in. But as always I’ll continue to watch and learn


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You have to go with trends and MJO ... the long range usually always has a completely different look past hour 270 ... so that would be around mid February ... so ur canceling winter for everyone because a long range solution that will change that only goes out to mid February isn’t showing monsterous snow storms for everyone?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
You have to go with trends and MJO ... the long range usually always has a completely different look past hour 270 ... so that would be around mid February ... so ur canceling winter for everyone because a long range solution that will change that only goes out to mid February isn’t showing monsterous snow storms for everyone?
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Not canceling for everyone. Just everyone outside North Carolina. Based on the overall pattern this winter. And the fact that models have been totally useless this year. I think North Carolina Tennessee stands a good chance at a winter storm


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really want to see the gefs mslp map to see if there’s a stout cad sig at that timeframe, still can’t write it off
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Barely any gefs support for that storm next week on the gfs/fv, just a few members (2-4) have some freezing rain, I’m really not buying fv/gfs storm
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And folks were saying a couple of weeks ago to ignore the ops when the ensembles were showing snow here for this week, and that didn't work out, either.
 
Storm5 said:
Oh look a day 7-8 threat on the gfs for NC and another threat for parts of the southeast Days 9-10 . Lol we would be measuring snow in feet of all these day 7 plus threats verified this year


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Didn't you say something a fee weeks ago about people kicking the can down the road?
 
CyclonicFury said:
GFS has a winter storm in NC next Sunday
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There has been a storm showing on the models for next weekend for a while now. I would not dismiss it at all. People worrying about the ensembles, but the ensembles were wrong with the threat they were showing for this week, and the ops were right in not showing anything. The GFS and more importantly the FV3 seem to be locked onto this one.
 
GaWx said:
Wow, vs the last 3 runs, every single day of the 12Z GFS is colder on a National HDD basis and practically every day in the E US is colder. What suddenly happened? 12Z GFS MJO forecast change to more like the favorable for cold 0Z EPS? Groundhog stew fed to the GFS?

https://dashboard.truewx.com/energy/
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Larry,
Here's really hoping you've found the diamond ... all I come up with is sadly a lump of coal ... :confused::(:mad:

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Brick Tamland said:
There has been a storm showing on the models for next weekend for a while now. I would not dismiss it at all. People worrying about the ensembles, but the ensembles were wrong with the threat they were showing for this week, and the ops were right in not showing anything. The GFS and more importantly the FV3 seem to be locked onto this one.
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Aye it will be 70+ degrees before it happens, you know what that means.....
 
Ignoring all other factors (yes it is only one factor of several), fwiw it is hard to have a better MJO for SE cold chances than what the EPS has for week 2: (hope the EPS is right & then we at least can have hope for week 2 of the run/Feb 8th on): Edit remember how much colder it got last month than earlier runs were showing for mid January

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