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Pattern Fabulous February

gfs starts to break down ser by hour 240, I don’t know or think it will completely collapse, in fact I think it may strengthen again
 
Lol everyone focusing on the old Gfs when it is barely a model anymore. Gfs is a crap model. Fv3 should be the only model looked at when looking at an actual American global model. And the new Fv3 still shows significant ice storm for the CAD regions basically all of NC at hour 200
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Lol everyone focusing on the old Gfs when it is barely a model anymore. Gfs is a crap model. Fv3 should be the only model looked at when looking at an actual American global model. And the new Fv3 still shows significant ice storm for the CAD regions basically all of NC at hour 200
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Is that what the 18z Fv3 is it back to showing CAD Storm?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Is that what the 18z Fv3 is it back to showing CAD Storm?
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Storm5 said:
I’m all in . Winter sucked , everyone was wrong . Yes we’ve all had good snows late February into March . We’ve been kicking the can all winter. The seasonal models were wrong , the weeklies suck and I’m over it . Bring on tornadoes and hail


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We'll score now!
 
Lots of hints of blocking showing up in the LR. It fits with how this winter should evolve, so I give it credibility. Just gotta get that PNA to respond. I still think it will. My guess is that within a couple days either side of 2/15, we’ll either be in or transitioning to a +PNA/-NAO regime or on the cusp of doing so.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lots of hints of blocking showing up in the LR. It fits with how this winter should evolve, so I give it credibility. Just gotta get that PNA to respond. I still think it will. My guess is that within a couple days either side of 2/15, we’ll either be in or transitioning to a +PNA/-NAO regime or on the cusp of doing so.
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Thanks for not throwing "sun angle" in there ... ;)
 
Rain Cold said:
Lots of hints of blocking showing up in the LR. It fits with how this winter should evolve, so I give it credibility. Just gotta get that PNA to respond. I still think it will. My guess is that within a couple days either side of 2/15, we’ll either be in or transitioning to a +PNA/-NAO regime or on the cusp of doing so.
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So in other words, just in time for March.
 
This looks awfully familiar...

Aside from the local sensible impacts here, the bigger picture is what a pattern like this does globally in the longer run say like several months to perhaps even a year from now as far as setting a few key pieces of the puzzle that have some sway in the winter of 2019-20.

Mid-late winter -NPOs (North Pacific Oscillation) fuels positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) events in the spring that ultimately provides a boost to El Nino during the spring predictability barrier and is favorable modoki/CP ENSO and El Nino in general at least until we're deep into the summer anyways because there's some seasonality in the ENSO-PMM relationship. Given we already have set the table for a NINO as is holistically, and we're reinforcing what's already a pretty decent downwelling Kelvin Wave in the central Pacific as subseasonal forcing persists in the Pacific, I'd lean towards another +ENSO winter next year, and go insofar as to say we'll probably find ourselves contending with a legitimate El Nino in 2019-20.

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Rain Cold said:
Lots of hints of blocking showing up in the LR. It fits with how this winter should evolve, so I give it credibility. Just gotta get that PNA to respond. I still think it will. My guess is that within a couple days either side of 2/15, we’ll either be in or transitioning to a +PNA/-NAO regime or on the cusp of doing so.
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Geez imagine the potential we could have for something/scoring once that PNA goes positive along with favorable MJO phases, once the ser can back off to extent where it alows storms to curve up off the coast poleward, alright ima chill out but Can’t help and see the potential pattern if things work out
 
NAO goes negative, PNA goes from negative to neutral (and looks to be climbing), EPO is a solid negative and AO is slightly negative all by the 15th; MJO looks like a possible 8 close to the circle in that time frame ... other than "snow" (or medication), what else could anyone possibly want ... o_O
 
I really hope we aren’t headed to our 3rd way above average February in a row. February 2017 and 2018 were 7 and 6 degrees above the mean average for me. I’m sure others on here were the same or worse and I wish this on no snow or winter lover. I know I’m one of the more optimistic people when it comes to winter weather but even I am about to hit the panic button soon. It’s getting really hard not to be extremely worried based on the past few years and the warmth that’s coming now.
 
Arcc said:
This is probably the year that when we all give up hope near March, there will be some type of blockbuster storm. Then in five or ten years we will remember each bad turn favorably due to what happens at the end.
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That or either we torch into March, get leaves on the trees and then get a devestating ice storm. Then we curse this winter for all time due to not having power for three weeks.
 
Arcc said:
This is probably the year that when we all give up hope near March, there will be some type of blockbuster storm. Then in five or ten years we will remember each bad turn favorably due to what happens at the end.
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I've had an epiphany ... and it's all figured out ... Charlie's gonna start a SouthernWX retirement village, and after he has all of us in there years from now, in wheelchairs and walkers, then it'll snow outside but we'll all want to stay safe in front of the lone gas heater ...
 
olhausen said:
I really hope we aren’t headed to our 3rd way above average February in a row. February 2017 and 2018 were 7 and 6 degrees above the mean average for me. I’m sure others on here were the same or worse and I wish this on no snow or winter lover. I know I’m one of the more optimistic people when it comes to winter weather but even I am about to hit the panic button soon. It’s getting really hard not to be extremely worried based on the past few years and the warmth that’s coming now.
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If February torches to the extent of the last 2, the winter temps will verify the exact opposite of JB's winter forecast. Instead of -5, it will be near +5. I'm beginning to think this is just another one of those winters without any significant events.
 
FWIW, and prolly not much, but 0z Icon has a strong high up north and almost an overrunning event for the south
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If we're going to score this month, we're going to have to thread the needle. Sustained cold is out of the question now
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
?
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Models not handling the pattern change well. Complicated atmosphere we’re dealing with right now. Corona holes opening up. GEFS is initializing in the wrong MJO phase? MaDookie Niño not fully sampled yet. 8-1-2 Incoming
 
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