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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
If you can appreciate the beauty of a La Nina-like stubborn SE ridge, you'll enjoy the 12Z GEFS.
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With an MJO chart like this, I was surprised the 6z was as good as it was. 12z makes more sense considering the phase it's got it going to, western trough/SE ridge. Smart minds say this turn back to phase 6 is not going to happen. I don't know, it's wanted to be over that way this winter. We'll see soon. Euro doesn't agree.

Again, I just get this feeling that everything the weeklies, CFS, etc pointed too in regard to blocking and -NAO is going to come back around right in time for March again, like it has the last couple years. I really think persistence forecasting is the new way to go for our winters.

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Here comes the winter storm that I was talking about in the banter...only a day later than what I was predicting on the FV3.
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WxWatch said:
Here comes the winter storm that I was talking about in the banter...only a day later than what I was predicting on the FV3.
dc3a13ee2c71e0aced0ad03f107eb7ae.jpg
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You want it earlier. By 330, the 50/50 is pulling out, confluence is lifting north, and the wave will start moving north. Let's see if that happens when the next frames come out. In either case, the whole height field will probably be well north by then anyway.
 
Rain Cold said:
You want it earlier. By 330, the 50/50 is pulling out, confluence is lifting north, and the wave will start moving north. Let's see if that happens when the next frames come out. In either case, the whole height field will probably be well north by then anyway.
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It doesn’t matter H5 will change drastically each cycle at this lead...
 
NCSNOW said:
Having a + PNA always trumps only having a -NAO for the SE. I will always choose a +PNA over any tc/signal. That post from Ventrice is a good example of why.
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Agreed, give me a +PNA and I'll take my chances here in the south. The -NAO is nice but I personally have seen better success from the +PNA and -EPO combo. Unfortunately the +PNA has been scarce this winter and looks to remain that way.
 
the apple weather app seems to be hitting the liquor cabinet. Does anyone know why those flakes would suddenly appear?
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NCSNOW said:
Having a + PNA always trumps only having a -NAO for the SE. I will always choose a +PNA over any tc/signal. That post from Ventrice is a good example of why.
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snowlover91 said:
Agreed, give me a +PNA and I'll take my chances here in the south. The -NAO is nice but I personally have seen better success from the +PNA and -EPO combo. Unfortunately the +PNA has been scarce this winter and looks to remain that way.
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I'm not sure. I always refer to this study.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nc-snowfall
 
snowlover91 said:
The Euro shows a pretty strong HP dropping down at 192, anyone with precip maps? This looks like it would be an icy setup for someone if there is moisture moving in.
View attachment 14641
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No precip then (hour 192) on this 12Z Euro. Also, virtually no wintry precip SE US entire 10 days. But the one good thing is that this run looks much better than that crapfest at the end of the last run.

Man, I hate -PNAs!!
 
Screw looking at d8+ fantasy snows or surface maps, what may be of more immediate concern is the potential for some thundestorms and/or severe weather across the Arklatex region and/or lower Mississippi Valley later next week. As @Myfrotho704_ showed in the other thread, this definitely looks interesting to say the least and fits in general w/ the longwave pattern and our increasingly favorable severe climo that begins to ramp up in February. The weathermodels maps also showed some appreciable CAPE, deep layer shear, etc. but as usual in the front half of the severe season, CAPE will likely be the limiting factor here if severe weather is going to occur.

This is only about 5-6 days out so worth monitoring going forward.

This system is on the SPC's radar
" A larger-scale trough will
seemingly develop over the western U.S. on Tuesday before moving
eastward into the Great Plains Wednesday (day 6) and OH/TN Valleys
on Thursday (day 7). Considerable model run-to-run variability is
apparent by mid week but increasing Gulf moisture will likely reside
ahead of this system in the Mid-South/lower MS Valley."


ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_7.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Screw looking at d8+ fantasy snows or surface maps, what may be of more immediate concern is the potential for some thundestorms and/or severe weather across the Arklatex region and/or lower Mississippi Valley later next week. As @Myfrotho704_ showed in the other thread, this definitely looks interesting to say the least and fits in general w/ the longwave pattern and our increasingly favorable severe climo that begins to ramp up in February. The weathermodels maps also showed some appreciable CAPE, deep layer shear, etc. but as usual in the front half of the severe season, CAPE will likely be the limiting factor here if severe weather is going to occur.

This is only about 5-6 days out so worth monitoring going forward.

This system is on the SPC's radar
" A larger-scale trough will
seemingly develop over the western U.S. on Tuesday before moving
eastward into the Great Plains Wednesday (day 6) and OH/TN Valleys
on Thursday (day 7). Considerable model run-to-run variability is
apparent by mid week but increasing Gulf moisture will likely reside
ahead of this system in the Mid-South/lower MS Valley."


View attachment 14642
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Starting to take this a little more serious instead of playing around, typical setup for severe wx with a diving trough/ULL in the sw which creates the jet streak seen above, like you said tho CAPE may be questionable due to things like clouds, rain cooled air
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Starting to take this a little more serious instead of playing around, typical setup for severe wx with a diving trough/ULL in the sw which creates the jet streak seen above, like you said tho CAPE may be questionable due to things like clouds, rain cooled air
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Agree, this definitely is worth watching more so than fantasy range cold/snow bs. Yeah early February boundary layer is at best marginal for significant severe, the Gulf still needs some time to really warm up and until we get deeper into April, CAPE is almost always limiting for severe weather. From May and beyond it's usually shear.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Agree, this definitely is worth watching more so than fantasy range cold/snow bs. Yeah early February boundary layer is at best marginal for significant severe, the Gulf still needs some time to really warm up and until we get deeper into April, CAPE is almost always limiting for severe weather. From May and beyond it's usually shear.
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Most of our strongest storms/peak damaging wind climo come from summertime pulse storms if I’m not mistaken correct ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're definitely headed in the wrong direction.

View attachment 14656
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I’m all in . Winter sucked , everyone was wrong . Yes we’ve all had good snows late February into March . We’ve been kicking the can all winter. The seasonal models were wrong , the weeklies suck and I’m over it . Bring on tornadoes and hail


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Storm5 said:
I’m all in . Winter sucked , everyone was wrong . Yes we’ve all had good snows late February into March . We’ve been kicking the can all winter. The seasonal models were wrong , the weeklies suck and I’m over it . Bring on tornadoes and hail


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Bbbbbut the Pioneer says....
 
getting rid of the SER is hard, last year was similar, I thought there may have been a pattern change by mid month but everything got delayed (ssw) To March, i know things are never the same but all I got to say is that JBs forecast is about to verify horribly for the SE
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're definitely headed in the wrong direction.

View attachment 14656
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Wow look at all those positive heights across the Western Hemisphere. Seems like the past few years it is a 2:1 ratio of positive to negative heights in general. When it is cold, it can be very cold like the polar vortex we had this week, but they tend to “suck up” all the cold air into one location. I guess this is the new norm for winter now.
 
Storm5 said:
I’m all in . Winter sucked , everyone was wrong . Yes we’ve all had good snows late February into March . We’ve been kicking the can all winter. The seasonal models were wrong , the weeklies suck and I’m over it . Bring on tornadoes and hail


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We have found every way to suck this year. It started in September with the pacific typhoon and hasnt stopped. Im actually impressed with the staying power and how ugly the models have gotten in the longer range. We all know this is setting up a miserable march and april

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cyclogent said:
Some of you guys give up too soon. Patience. :cool:

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I’m sure phase 8 for 2 days will save winter!? How can that happen and a SE ridge!? We rock!
 
SD said:
We have found every way to suck this year. It started in September with the pacific typhoon and hasnt stopped. Im actually impressed with the staying power and how ugly the models have gotten in the longer range. We all know this is setting up a miserable march and april

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Yep, blocking, PNA, -NAO till April, starting early March. Gonna have to wear a jacket until May....watch.
 
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