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Pattern Fabulous February

Kylo said:
Wow, sure is. And inside day 10 :)
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I'm just not seeing the positive here. Ridging over the top but all the cold is in the west, central and the east torches still due to the SE ridge. 12 GEFS still has it hanging there through the end of the run. The greenland blocking is actually starting to look east based. Less ridging over Hudson Bay

All this can change, but I'm not particularly liking anything about that run. I just need to come back next week and see where we are. This pattern hunting is killing me. :confused:
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm just not seeing the positive here. Ridging over the top but all the cold is in the west, central and the east torches still due to the SE ridge. 12 GEFS still has it hanging there through the end of the run. The greenland blocking is actually starting to look east based. Less ridging over Hudson Bay

All this can change, but I'm not particularly liking anything about that run. I just need to come back next week and see where we are. This pattern hunting is killing me. :confused:
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This could work into something better fairly easily, HLB/-EPO. Will be interesting to see which gives, the -EPO or the west coast trough. Think there will hopefully be trough in plains.

D3BED107-0E84-49DB-9C3B-138588A8C4E7.png
 
Kylo said:
This could work into something better fairly easily, HLB/-EPO. Will be interesting to see which gives, the -EPO or the west coast trough. Think there will hopefully be trough in plains.

View attachment 14389
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Very nice with Greenland, -AO, and -EPO blocking, At 2 meters, SE tmperatures for that same 8-13 day period are near normal as opposed to warmer than normal with cold just to our NW and there's lots of moisture..so a very workable pattern. Folks need to remember that we don't want a plunging cold pattern...those are normally very dry. who wants that here? Most here don't care about cold unless there's wintry precip.
 
Kylo said:
This could work into something better fairly easily, HLB/-EPO. Will be interesting to see which gives, the -EPO or the west coast trough. Think there will hopefully be trough in plains.

View attachment 14389
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That trough east of HI is not a good corroborator of a trough in the western US. It argues for the US trough to be farther east. Where does the model go over the next frames?
 
Kylo said:
These snow maps are so bad but still, just maybe.

View attachment 14390
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Hopefully, it will be accurate this go round. A lot of posters were saying not to worry about the ops and look at the ensembles with the threats we were supposed to have this week, and we got burned by them.
 
Jessy89 said:
The fv3 sure is locked in on the icy look on the 10th


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The GEFS has quite a few members with something around then as well although they differ quite a bit with track and timing... a solid signal for something of interest at least. The February 8-12th period REALLY interests me for a possible snow/ice threat for many in the south.
1548871840371.png

Look at this HP, you can't get much better than this look right here. If we can get a cold front to stall and a wave or multiple waves to move along it many would be in business.
1548871960061.png
 
snowlover91 said:
The GEFS has quite a few members with something around then as well although they differ quite a bit with track and timing... a solid signal for something of interest at least. The February 8-12th period REALLY interests me for a possible snow/ice threat for many in the south.
View attachment 14396

Look at this HP, you can't get much better than this look right here. If we can get a cold front to stall and a wave or multiple waves to move along it many would be in business.
View attachment 14397
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Definitely a very interesting threat if modeled correctly. If being the key word. Any north trending of that PV lobe and its over. I wouldn't like to bet against those odds.

The FV3 is pretty much deja vu of yesterday's storm.
 
Arcc said:
Definitely a very interesting threat if modeled correctly. If being the key word. Any north trending of that PV lobe and its over. I wouldn't like to bet against those odds.
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Yeah still a long ways out but there is at least a solid signal from the GEFS and FV3 of some activity worth watching. The latest FV3 has a 1048 HP in a nice position with ice all the way into southern GA. I like this period quite a bit, the look of strong HP after strong HP dropping down on the GEFS and FV3 is intriguing. As soon as one leaves a new one is dropping down. Some icy threats coming up if that pattern were to verify.

1548872485850.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah still a long ways out but there is at least a solid signal from the GEFS and FV3 of some activity worth watching. The latest FV3 has a 1048 HP in a nice position with ice all the way into southern GA. I like this period quite a bit, the look of strong HP after strong HP dropping down on the GEFS and FV3 is intriguing. As soon as one leaves a new one is dropping down. Some icy threats coming up if that pattern were to verify.

View attachment 14399
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Agree on both counts. Definitely about time for a board wide ice threat.
 
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