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Pattern Fabulous February

DarkKnight said:
My wife loves storms.. lol. She’s always asking are we getting a storm. Lol.
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The funny part about it is. Sometime the local news and weather will be blowing it way out of context. Like hide your wife and kids. And she will ask me about it and I just say. “Meh”. There has been a few times I have said. You need to get you and the kids in the bathroom.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Feb 8-12 storm threat went poof in the FV3 as well. And it’s not one of those looks that just comes back in a couple of runs. The pattern no longer supports it
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Yup I stated this morning that fv3 would lose it. And that’s exactly what happened. It’s just the same pattern we are following this winter. It’s very predictable. You get a storm 10 plus days for several runs then poof it’s gone. Sorry if banter but I feel like I’m describing the pattern we are in thus winter


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Wake me up when we actually get a legitimate threat inside day 6, these day 9-12 modeled fantasies are obviously far more apt to largely continue to fall flat on their face as we've seen time & time again lately. All the models including the GFS, FV3, ECMWF, CMC, etc have decoupling biases over areas w/ snow cover which causes some of their long range forecasts to end up too cold & the surface highs to our north are usually too intense as a result, which in effect pushes the storm track SEward, likely too far SE vs reality all else considered equal which is part of the reason why these LR storms "trend NW" as we get closer to verification.
 
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This looks good to me. Hopefully it will verify.


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Checking the ops from overnight, The American suite (GFS & FV3) have backed off the Feb 9-10 flip, postponing it , if that until day 13-15. The Canadian(GDPS) and CFS are still on board for ending the torch next weekend ( 2/9-2/10). Fact the CFS has 2 LR fantasy hits NC Pre-Feb 15. Euro looks like it has a nice HP 1040 ish for next weekend sitting up over NE by Sunday that should at least keep the surface cold east of the apps.

The EPS agrees with its op and the GEFs looks good especially NC Starting 2/13 onward. Bottom line Is the Flip looks like 2/10-2/12 instead of 2/8-2/10. I'm sure in By late this weekend it will be getting kicked down the road another 2 or 3 days, we'll see. I've learned the hard way this season to not trust anything or anyone advertising a pattern change until inside 5 days. Until we cross this thresh hold personally I'm in the winter is over camp. If the models can ever get us back inside 120 hrs then and only then will I change my tune.
 
I would say it looks like the pattern was overhyped again, but sometimes it seems like we have no idea anymore what pattern and indices really give us a better than normal shot at winter storms here. It feels like what applied in the past doesn't apply anymore.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wake me up when we actually get a legitimate threat inside day 6, these day 9-12 modeled fantasies are obviously far more apt to largely continue to fall flat on their face as we've seen time & time again lately. All the models including the GFS, FV3, ECMWF, CMC, etc have decoupling biases over areas w/ snow cover which causes some of their long range forecasts to end up too cold & the surface highs to our north are usually too intense as a result, which in effect pushes the storm track SEward, likely too far SE vs reality all else considered equal which is part of the reason why these LR storms "trend NW" as we get closer to verification.
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Not to take anything away from Web's awesome explanation, layman's translation the models suck..
 
GEFS says things flip to cold on the 12th. EPS is actually pretty similar. This actually looks pretty good to me. True -NAO starting to show up with lower heights in the 50/50 region. Pacific is still not good, but Atlantic looks to co-operate and maybe keep us in the game. Pleasant surprise this morning, I thought long range was going to suck.


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NCSNOW said:
Checking the ops from overnight, The American suite (GFS & FV3) have backed off the Feb 9-10 flip, postponing it , if that until day 13-15. The Canadian(GDPS) and CFS are still on board for ending the torch next weekend ( 2/9-2/10). Fact the CFS has 2 LR fantasy hits NC Pre-Feb 15. Euro looks like it has a nice HP 1040 ish for next weekend sitting up over NE by Sunday that should at least keep the surface cold east of the apps.

The EPS agrees with its op and the GEFs looks good especially NC Starting 2/13 onward. Bottom line Is the Flip looks like 2/10-2/12 instead of 2/8-2/10. I'm sure in By late this weekend it will be getting kicked down the road another 2 or 3 days, we'll see. I've learned the hard way this season to not trust anything or anyone advertising a pattern change until inside 5 days. Until we cross this thresh hold personally I'm in the winter is over camp. If the models can ever get us back inside 120 hrs then and only then will I change my tune.
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Just curious why the sucky models show snow and ice 10+ days away, then loose them and go warm, but never show a 10 day torch or rain, trend towards cold and snowy?? It should go both ways!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just curious why the sucky models show snow and ice 10+ days away, then loose them and go warm, but never show a 10 day torch or rain, trend towards cold and snowy?? It should go both ways!
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Cold bias in the long range? I mean how often do we see a 1035 high trend south and to a 1042 inside 5 days? Like you said, It’s always the opposite. Maybe models are meant to hone in on the worst possible outcomes in the LR to give a longer lead time to prepare and forecast
 
They were posted at another board, but I was somewhat impressed with the 6z GEFS snow mean. Very nice run. Individual members had quite a few long range hits for the carolinas.

I just hope that it doesn't disappear in 2 hours. Probably will, but yeah.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just curious why the sucky models show snow and ice 10+ days away, then loose them and go warm, but never show a 10 day torch or rain, trend towards cold and snowy?? It should go both ways!
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I believe we saw some torchy model runs in early January that flipped to cold. It happens both ways. They are just unreliable beyond 5 days.


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Should we be concerned with severe weather/fooding next week ? I know with the active southern stream clouds will ruin instability but models still depict some diurnal Instabilty as a cold front slowly oozes west, flooding concerns me as soundings look loaded with water
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Cold bias in the long range? I mean how often do we see a 1035 high trend south and to a 1042 inside 5 days? Like you said, It’s always the opposite. Maybe models are meant to hone in on the worst possible outcomes in the LR to give a longer lead time to prepare and forecast
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Most models have a cold bias, maybe that’s all there is to it. Cold trends north so does the low. It seems a lot of things trend poleward and like hurricanes I think it just might be part of low pressure evolution and what not. It doesn’t help us in the SE having that as the natural state of the planet but oh well. It’s also the fact that people don’t really talk about trending cold inside 10 days unless there’s a storm that it implicates, so there’s bias in the viewers part too


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I do think the models are underestimating the cold shot late next week into next weekend. 1040+ HP coming out of Canada with the MJO getting into phases 8, 1, or left side of the COD argues for well below average temps for most of the SE. Could be wrong but i tend to think we'll see a flip in the coming days.
 
It shouldn’t surprise anyone about gfs and GEFS ridge city. The MJO it has us in favors that. In fact I think it was showing us to basically forget winter. Eps was much different and better on the MJO.
 
deltadog03 said:
It shouldn’t surprise anyone about gfs and GEFS ridge city. The MJO it has us in favors that. In fact I think it was showing us to basically forget winter. Eps was much different and better on the MJO.
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SER is a killer, still getting the feeling the last 10 days of feb will get better
 
Encouraging feel from Radiant this morning due to model progged convection drying up Indonesia and instead concentrating near Dateline; last time that happened was in Jan when we were headed to low amp phase 8, the period of the big NC snow:

"How Will Monday’s Forecast Look?

Monday’s 11-15 Day period is expected to feature a colder than normal national pattern, totaling 152.8 GWHDDs. This is colder versus both the 10-year (137.4) and 30-year (138.6) normals. While support for a colder national pattern comes from guidance, including the weekly climate models, confidence is low in the regional details. For example, ECMWF projects troughing remaining more west-focused versus the forecast. This setup could keep the West colder while offering more variability downstream including the enhancement of a Southeast ridge (-PNA/+TNH response). The tropics, however, point to a different scenario that could allow for warming in the West and an Eastern Half focus of belows. The maps below illustrate the risk based on tropical storminess near the International Dateline and lesser activity around Indonesia...."
 
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As I posted last night there are a lot of changes going on in the atmosphere right now, much more chaotic than usual. Don't expect models to show much consistency outside of 4-5 days, like the latest GFS run going from a 1037 HP in Canada to 1048 and a colder look. Lots of details to be ironed out in the coming days.
 
snowlover91 said:
As I posted last night there are a lot of changes going on in the atmosphere right now, much more chaotic than usual. Don't expect models to show much consistency outside of 4-5 days, like the latest GFS run going from a 1037 HP in Canada to 1048 and a colder look. Lots of details to be ironed out in the coming days.
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It's been like this all Winter....3 days out is about the max to get a decent idea about what's going to potentially happen
 
Flurry said:
It's been like this all Winter....3 days out is about the max to get a decent idea about what's going to potentially happen
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That's funny right there because Chattanooga was a complete bust Tuesday. This wasn't a fail it was an epic fail.

1. Precep was wrong.
2. time of Precep was wrong.
3. Temps were wrong.
4. Cold temps were right but, the timing was wrong.

I don't ivy NOAA at all, when things go like last Tuesday.... This was definitely a Snow game last week and we lost.
 
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