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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
You're right. But I’m saying I like today's GEFS because I love the first week or so’s big drop in the amp vs recent day's progs (now going toward the COD) and I also feel the 2nd week's backwarsds move is just a bunch of doodoo (not believing it).
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Gotcha. I agree. I don't like seeing the second week's action, but it's probably overdone. JB says that pressures need to get up over Australia to force a trough in the east. That may be a couple weeks away, so it may fit with the MJO prog. Either way, there should still be areas of high pressure dropping into the US and spilling east, which could help, even with a tendency for some ridging along the east and southeastern seaboard. Maybe we can time something out, after the torch, before a better pattern sets in...hopefully.
 
Well, I think I found the ugliest analog ever...first the background to it...total precip for CHA for Nov-Jan is at 23.35 inches, which is the 4th wettest Nov-Jan ever recorded here going back to 1879. So being curious I looked at snowfall totals for the February-March period following the top 10 wettest November-Januarys...it's ugly.

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.3
1.8

Granted, analogs don't tell the whole story and they are often wrong for seasonal forecasting, so I sure hope this is wrong too lol.
 
GFS tries
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Guys I think we gotta count that system late next week as something to watch, good overrunning setup, of course things can wildly change especially inside 24 hours.....
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Yeh there is certainly some moisture creeping around in the Deep South waiting to go over some cold air. Let's see how it unfolds..
 
GaWx said:
When was the last time this kind of reversal actually occurred in Feb?
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I have no idea. But I wouldn't put it past this winter. It seems to want to do it's own thing and is ignoring the shoulda's. This winter seems like something is going on in the maritimes where the mjo wants to be 4-6.
 
Sleet City USA said:
GFS tries
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
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The high is in a good spot and pretty strong. Definitely like that. Not sure the shortwave(s) in the southern stream are going to hold together, but it's not a bad look for a little something. Always like seeing high pressures drop into that area. That's the first thing on my checklist. Now, will it be there in 198 hours?
 
just as I said the WAR has been trending stronger and is that a pv lobe on the GLs ?
041A1475-07E6-4536-B6B9-653384CA2D65.gif
 
The FV3 does have something at 198 (and possibly before but I went directly to that number). I'm guessing when we have better maps it'll look like a major winter storm, but it mostly is for Tennessee and the western parts.

Now to explore further...
 
Not the best run of the CFSv2 on the second to last day of the month...we have one more day to turn this around. I could still work with this though.
194b8e2bfecdae07e86dc463dd3ff0aa.gif


The good news is the model is seeing the cold HPs based on the 2mT look. It would be, by far, the coldest month of the winter.



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Jon said:
Not the best run of the CFSv2 on the second to last day of the month...we have one more day to turn this around. I could still work with this though.
194b8e2bfecdae07e86dc463dd3ff0aa.gif


The good news is the model is seeing the cold HPs based on the 2mT look. It would be, by far, the coldest month of the winter.



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I know you know this but for those who don't, the CFS turns on a dime sometimes in just 6 hours.
 
The gfs does have a storm the 13th and the 15th. Fantasy I know but happy to see some good looks


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