Much closer to severe tha. Any winter promise u thatEven if you like severe weather.
My wife loves storms.. lol. She’s always asking are we getting a storm. Lol.Even if you like severe weather.
The funny part about it is. Sometime the local news and weather will be blowing it way out of context. Like hide your wife and kids. And she will ask me about it and I just say. “Meh”. There has been a few times I have said. You need to get you and the kids in the bathroom.My wife loves storms.. lol. She’s always asking are we getting a storm. Lol.
Feb 8-12 storm threat went poof in the FV3 as well. And it’s not one of those looks that just comes back in a couple of runs. The pattern no longer supports it
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This looks good to me. Hopefully it will verify.
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Not to take anything away from Web's awesome explanation, layman's translation the models suck..Wake me up when we actually get a legitimate threat inside day 6, these day 9-12 modeled fantasies are obviously far more apt to largely continue to fall flat on their face as we've seen time & time again lately. All the models including the GFS, FV3, ECMWF, CMC, etc have decoupling biases over areas w/ snow cover which causes some of their long range forecasts to end up too cold & the surface highs to our north are usually too intense as a result, which in effect pushes the storm track SEward, likely too far SE vs reality all else considered equal which is part of the reason why these LR storms "trend NW" as we get closer to verification.
Here’s to hoping!
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Just curious why the sucky models show snow and ice 10+ days away, then loose them and go warm, but never show a 10 day torch or rain, trend towards cold and snowy?? It should go both ways!Checking the ops from overnight, The American suite (GFS & FV3) have backed off the Feb 9-10 flip, postponing it , if that until day 13-15. The Canadian(GDPS) and CFS are still on board for ending the torch next weekend ( 2/9-2/10). Fact the CFS has 2 LR fantasy hits NC Pre-Feb 15. Euro looks like it has a nice HP 1040 ish for next weekend sitting up over NE by Sunday that should at least keep the surface cold east of the apps.
The EPS agrees with its op and the GEFs looks good especially NC Starting 2/13 onward. Bottom line Is the Flip looks like 2/10-2/12 instead of 2/8-2/10. I'm sure in By late this weekend it will be getting kicked down the road another 2 or 3 days, we'll see. I've learned the hard way this season to not trust anything or anyone advertising a pattern change until inside 5 days. Until we cross this thresh hold personally I'm in the winter is over camp. If the models can ever get us back inside 120 hrs then and only then will I change my tune.
Cold bias in the long range? I mean how often do we see a 1035 high trend south and to a 1042 inside 5 days? Like you said, It’s always the opposite. Maybe models are meant to hone in on the worst possible outcomes in the LR to give a longer lead time to prepare and forecastJust curious why the sucky models show snow and ice 10+ days away, then loose them and go warm, but never show a 10 day torch or rain, trend towards cold and snowy?? It should go both ways!
Just curious why the sucky models show snow and ice 10+ days away, then loose them and go warm, but never show a 10 day torch or rain, trend towards cold and snowy?? It should go both ways!
Most models have a cold bias, maybe that’s all there is to it. Cold trends north so does the low. It seems a lot of things trend poleward and like hurricanes I think it just might be part of low pressure evolution and what not. It doesn’t help us in the SE having that as the natural state of the planet but oh well. It’s also the fact that people don’t really talk about trending cold inside 10 days unless there’s a storm that it implicates, so there’s bias in the viewers part tooCold bias in the long range? I mean how often do we see a 1035 high trend south and to a 1042 inside 5 days? Like you said, It’s always the opposite. Maybe models are meant to hone in on the worst possible outcomes in the LR to give a longer lead time to prepare and forecast
It shouldn’t surprise anyone about gfs and GEFS ridge city. The MJO it has us in favors that. In fact I think it was showing us to basically forget winter. Eps was much different and better on the MJO.
As I posted last night there are a lot of changes going on in the atmosphere right now, much more chaotic than usual. Don't expect models to show much consistency outside of 4-5 days, like the latest GFS run going from a 1037 HP in Canada to 1048 and a colder look. Lots of details to be ironed out in the coming days.
That's funny right there because Chattanooga was a complete bust Tuesday. This wasn't a fail it was an epic fail.It's been like this all Winter....3 days out is about the max to get a decent idea about what's going to potentially happen