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Pattern Fabulous February

Get something inside day 7. And it will at least have my attention. Right now it’s just fun looking at the possible scenarios


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Storm5 said:
The message is clear . Models are all over the place with timing . But someone in the SE has a chance to score some type of winter storm in the 8th-12th period .


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Yep lots of moving pieces and we are far from a final scenario here. The main takeaway is there will likely be a significant winter storm somewhere in the south if the HP builds in as currently modeled.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not to be outdone but if these winter storms don't pan out, it's worth reminding everyone it's almost that time of the year once again where we have to legitimately worry about tornadoes, especially if you're in Mississippi & Alabama.
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Those are very low probabilities arent they ? 0.15% doesnt seem very high. Now if it were 15% that would be high.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Those are very low probabilities arent they ? 0.15% doesnt seem very high. Now if it were 15% that would be high.
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This is the probability of significant (EF2+) tornadoes over just a single day within 80 kilometers of any location. Integrated probabilities over a few weeks to a month or so and 0.15% turns into something pretty substantial. If you were to look at all severe, the probabilities are about an order of magnitude higher every day than significant tornadoes.
 
Speaking of severe weather, gfs does shows some weak to mod low level shear next week with instability of 500-1000jkg, but constant clouds are not supportive of severe wx, flooding is definitely a threat, based off gfs soundings there’s a deep warm cloud layer/very moist sounding next week with PWATs of 1.5+
41F1C7F3-4EA3-4B52-8637-A42E01F867A6.png
 
Gfs was Slightly more snowier this run due to less ridging off the east coast, get that ridge a little bit more weaker and the Carolinas can be in play 708598EA-F05A-4DEB-8680-9AA288DFC9FA.gif
 
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FV3 at 240
gfs_wnatl_240_dom_precip_type.gif
 
Fv3 really has been locked in and has not blinked much. Should be in the Euro range for the feb 10th storm tomorrow


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Week 4 is the coolest with an average of 1 below normal in the SE at 2 meters. That's near normal. Weeks 3 and 5 average right at normal. Week 6 averages a hair above. Normals based on 1981-2010.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Those are very low probabilities arent they ? 0.15% doesnt seem very high. Now if it were 15% that would be high.
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Probably the tornado threat, and the sn/ip threat are similar in winter, lol. Actually, it's probably a lot easier to get a tornado :) Now a snow tornado, or a sleetacane, have smaller odds, but would be out of sight on the way cool o meter.

Sure do wish for something other than these drive by cold hits. One night of good cold doesn't offer much chances moisture would come along. A 23 and a 24 for two different cold shots is pretty weak. In the middle of a torch in a recent Jan I got a low of 17 one night.
 
The weeklies have a La Ninaish pattern continuing with the core of the cold anomalies from the Midwest to the NW US as opposed to the southern tier. Also, there is a -PNA averaged out unlike the +PNA of past weeklies. So, without the +PNA, there's no sustained SE cold. There is Greenland and -AO blocking but without the +PNA it doesn't do that good for the SE.

**Corrected for -PNA
 
GaWx said:
The weeklies have a La Ninaish pattern continuing with the core of the cold anomalies from the Midwest to the NW US as opposed to the southern tier. Also, there is a -PNA averaged out unlike the +PNA of past weeklies. So, without the +PNA, there's no sustained SE cold. There is Greenland and -AO blocking but without the +PNA it doesn't do that good for the SE.

**Corrected for -PNA
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"without the +PNA it doesn't do that good for the SE"
Larry, Understatement of the season ... ;)
 
dsaur said:
Probably the tornado threat, and the sn/ip threat are similar in winter, lol. Actually, it's probably a lot easier to get a tornado :) Now a snow tornado, or a sleetacane, have smaller odds, but would be out of sight on the way cool o meter.

Sure do wish for something other than these drive by cold hits. One night of good cold doesn't offer much chances moisture would come along. A 23 and a 24 for two different cold shots is pretty weak. In the middle of a torch in a recent Jan I got a low of 17 one night.
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23 and 24 is especially weak considering how historic this polar vortex was and all the records set for areas to your north.
 
GaWx said:
The weeklies have a La Ninaish pattern continuing with the core of the cold anomalies from the Midwest to the NW US as opposed to the southern tier. Also, there is a -PNA averaged out unlike the +PNA of past weeklies. So, without the +PNA, there's no sustained SE cold. There is Greenland and -AO blocking but without the +PNA it doesn't do that good for the SE.

**Corrected for -PNA
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I wonder if that will put the upper south (particularly TN) in the battle zone, possible ice storm setups?
 
Had a feeling fv3 would lose it today. But of course gfs now has it.


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In case anyone was wondering why the FV3 was suddenly a no go..here’s hour 216 just before precip moves in. This model likely ---- the bed here on this run. Suddenly much much warmer than it’s previous 8 runs. I’m sure there’s more to this but I don’t have time to investigate reasons why atm
CCA6C7D3-C5FD-476A-A0C6-09BD58311B2C.png
 
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