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Pattern Fabulous February

The southern stream remains active in the medium/LR guidance. If true, and if it remains active through February and early March, we should be able to get at least one viable widespread winter storm threat, I'd think.
 
BufordWX said:
Based on TT maps I can’t tell if the euro has that storm at the end of next week, but looks like it has the cold with a 1047 High dropping out of Canada. My takeaway from tonight’s model runs are that at least the cold air looks to return by the end of next week, but of course a lot can and will change by then.View attachment 14360
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This is exactly why I said to watch Feb 12 for a pattern change back to cold and it looks even earlier than I thought! There’s no feature that will lock a bad pattern in atm. Can’t trust Day 15 anomalous heat!

Hopefully the ensembles turn around as well.


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tennessee storm said:
We all know how this last cold air done... wasted ... im skeptical....
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The cold air on the Euro and other modeling is different than the cold air associated with a PV. It’s a true high digging over the west and moving east with time. 1040-1050mb or so. With good timing, this is when we can get a good southern storm track. With cold air associated with a PV, all the cold air is wrapped up around the PV lobe itself.


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I don't know why folks want cold from a polar vortex anyway. It never results in any action here. We have our best chances when we go from warm to just cold enough. It's a thin line, but it still gives us a better shot at getting an actual storm to work out than it does when we rely on the polar vortex for the cold air.
 
Well, everybody was saying backloaded winter! Its not even February yet, we will have more opportunities, I'm sure.
 
And if we really warm up the beginning of next week to near 70, and there is a storm showing up on the models next weekend in the long range, I'd say that's a good sign and to keep watching.
 
I think I could roll with this setup. With some adjustments it looks good (minus the zr lol)
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png
 
The FV3 and Euro both have an interesting look starting around day 8-9, basically a sharp gradient between warm air from the south and colder air trying to filter in from the north. Looks like a setup that could be quite icy with some snow at times if this verifies... and from the looks of the FV3 it could be multiple systems close together.
 
The 6z FV-3 is essentially a parade of southern stream storms and cold arctic highs in the medium to LR portion of it's run. If something like that comes to fruition, and I expect it will for a time, we are going to be very busy. This thread might actually even outpace the complaint thread for a short time!
 
Rain Cold said:
The 6z FV-3 is essentially a parade of southern stream storms and cold arctic highs in the medium to LR portion of it's run. If something like that comes to fruition, and I expect it will for a time, we are going to be very busy. This thread might actually even outpace the complaint thread for a short time!
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The 6z Retired GFS, has a few very near misses, or NC specials , in the same timeframe!
 
Everyone who’s skeptical of the model outputs getting active shouldn’t be skeptical. The difference between the cold we experienced/ are experiencing now is the polar vortex lobe slapping up in the face then saying bye. That is hard to get systems to match up with a small window of time. But the upcoming pattern featured long lasting cold enough air, constant cold high pressures from the north. This is going to prove to have many chances of winter precip over the coming weeks into mid and late February. People who called off winter ... are going to have a very awkward next few weeks in the SNOW LOL
 
Yeah, the GEFS wants to keep the SE ridge hanging around longer and longer over night. Not a trend I want to see. Until that's gone and we're in an eastern trough I can't be optimistic. The central/western trough looks like it has staying power.

1548859133509.png
 
I got say, for now I'm pumped about next week, Jon and Webb has been talking about this time frame for us to watch. This thread should be named "February prime time"
 
accu35 said:
I got say, for now I'm pumped about next week, Jon and Webb has been talking about this time frame for us to watch. This thread should be named "February prime time"
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I'm still going with flambè February. I don't feel any of this will materialize for most of us. Plus next week is a pure torch.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, the GEFS wants to keep the SE ridge hanging around longer and longer over night. Not a trend I want to see. Until that's gone and we're in an eastern trough I can't be optimistic. The central/western trough looks like it has staying power.

View attachment 14381
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I’ll ask how often has gefs been right this year?


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