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Pattern Fabulous February

SnowNiner said:
I just have so little faith in a winter storm working out with such a progged strong SE ridge. That doesn't make sense to me. Probably the midatlantic but not the south east. I can't get excited about anything until that things goes away and the trough pushes more east.

Anybody got the last day CFS run of the month for February? Usually it tells the tale.
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You need a little SE ridge to keep from being too suppressed . Looks good at this lead!
 
Still a cad sig this run altho weaker and I don’t like the position of the HP, bring it south some, also the HP has been weakening with time, typical.
74E9482D-49D3-4A40-BCB0-ADA8A28D9C46.gifE84651CA-DACA-47D1-AE4F-5E1EC966FEF9.png82A1CE3C-CE53-4D9E-9FDD-365B717265B5.png
 
There’s a strong signal for a Miller B. Surface features are going to bounce around 9-10 days out. Getting overly optimistic or pessimistic by one run at this lead seems silly to me.
 
That fv run yesterday that hammered nc/sc with ice and pasted the MA had similar look to feb 2014 but also Jan 2016(Jonas), I expect it to come back on some run or model
 
This is through next Saturday lol

12z gefs
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1940-41, the 2nd in a series of 3 El Ninos during World War 2 was another classic, yet lesser known & more ancient example of a backloaded winter.

1940-41 was virtually hot garbage in NC until this storm showed up right at the end of February and saved this winter's bacon. One of those rare times where the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to Greensboro wasn't a general diving line between haves & have nots, they got cored.

Point being there's still a lot of winter left this year, even a winter storm of this magnitude shown below would push this winter's snow total in NC "above average".
February 27-28 1941 NC Snowmap.png

Another little event came in mid March for the SW piedmont.
March 13-14 1941 NC Snowmap.png


The next winter (1941-42) followed the same formula except the storms in late February & March were bigger & screwed over RDU.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This winter loves to produce western piedmont ice storms, wouldn't be surprised in the least even if a low tried to cut into the OH Valley, we got another one right off the bat.
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And hickory getting the brunt again, honestly tho I think with this setup it has potential to be a lot worse, pretty sure there is way more snowpack to our north than previous setups
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can already see the miller B evolution and the bad thing is the pattern supports a storm like this in the future View attachment 14521
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I’ve said this every year sine 2002, “We’re due for another major Carolina ice storm”

It just hasn’t happened yet
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Where?
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I'm not sure I understand your question.. @packfan98 posted a euro image with the statement "end of the Euro looks like it had the CAD storm". I replied by stating that with a 1042 high over the lakes and moisture coming out of the gulf you could see where it was heading, as in the model was heading towards what pack had stated, the CAD storm. That's what I was referencing, not sure this answers your question or not
 
The unfortunate thing about that end of Euro run is that the mechanism responsible for allowing that High to build into the Lakes is moving northeast through eastern Canada. As it does, that high will move northeast from there. It is already that far north at 240. My guess is based on the translation of features the model is showing, it will shift even farther north as we move in. But who knows? Maybe we'll get lucky. At least you can see good wedging east of the Apps via the isobars.
 
Storm5 said:
Eps is a little more active in the 8th-11th range vs previous runs


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Yeah I mean it shows a glimmer of hope, maybe firing that first shot and things will improve from here on out.....
 
Rain Cold said:
The unfortunate thing about that end of Euro run is that the mechanism responsible for allowing that High to build into the Lakes is moving northeast through eastern Canada. As it does, that high will move northeast from there. It is already that far north at 240. My guess is based on the translation of features the model is showing, it will shift even farther north as we move in. But who knows? Maybe we'll get lucky. At least you can see good wedging east of the Apps via the isobars.
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Gefs has shown that aswell, more NE moving HP
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs has shown that aswell, more NE moving HP
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One thing’s for certain, I’ve had 100” of ensemble snow this year and 1” has verified. I’m not terribly let down by a mediocre snow mean atm. Strong convergence on a possible Miller B solution is good enough to hold my attention right now
 
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