Thanks. That's better than a sharp stick in the eye, but I'm not sure I'd call that an effective -NAO, although the values would probably be negative. Would be better to have an elongated PV, squashed southeast by a high pressure zone over Greenland. The EPO region looks good and we don't have a raging Pac Jet. The WAR is gone and the SE ridge is retreating, which is good. The storm track is still going to be too far north. But hopefully, we can get a Miller B out of it. Hopefully even more, it evolves into a more favorable pattern.
JB still thinks the SE will experience a very harsh 30 day period of winter weather, centered in the SE after Feb 10th or so. He's been all over that, so we'll have to see if it works out. I'm skeptical.
Also, it's good to remember the above image is a blend. The trough in the west could end up being centered farther east. And the PV could be as well. Anyway, better to see an image like that than some of the recent ones. Also good to see Webber's MJO post with the pulse looking more likely to make it into the colder phases. My own feeling is that winter only takes a brief hiatus. We'll have a couple of more legit chances for snow.
