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Pattern Fabulous February

If this HP moves, this might be an uh oh run ice wise:

1548909306936.png

Edit: Well, nevermind, posted this before checking the energy. Doesn't seem like as if there is as much energy.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
This system at day 7 is just another cold chasing moisture on cold front. I would watch the period after that around the 10-12
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Not necessarily, it may not work out but it’s definitely an overrunning set up, there’s no moisture with the front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
 
-EPO has definetly trended stronger during this timeframe with the possible winter storm, notice how the WAR is a problem and has gone slightly west altho this run barely did much, trough/lobe is moving more towards the center of the country, a +PNA would help out but looks nonexistent(-) at this time, this still supports overrunning E4CAE5AA-90FE-42C3-B715-007CC876A713.gif
 
Euro doesnt want anything to do with the FV3 ice storm, thankfully. (based off generic surface charts)
 
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6z still a go!24359490-0F42-44F3-B303-3689B77C32D6.png
 
whatalife said:
I like the 06z FV3 better the 00z FV3
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Good to see the models still have the storm overnight. FV3 looks locked on and coming in colder now. I would not be surprised to see it come in a little colder as we go and keep this look. Same thing happened with the December storm.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Good to see the models still have the storm overnight. FV3 looks locked on and coming in colder now. I would not be surprised to see it come in a little colder as we go and keep this look. Same thing happened with the December storm.
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We’ll see where it goes. At this point I am not overly excited just yet. I have not checked the soundings for my area and the FV3 surface map looks a little different then it’s radar image. BTW...The 06z GEFS still has a solid storm signal on it.
f26ddfea887a18f66f5325a4c5320d38.jpg
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1040 high looks good! If it starts trending weaker, think the storm comes NW and is warmer. Better than tracking a cool down after the 15th, like we thought would happen
 
Long range GEFS was pretty bad for us over night. SE ridge and western trough are locked in. I've heard the EPS didn't trend well either. Haven't seen them though. GEFS seems certain the MJO loops around and stays in 6 so that's likely the problem. Euro wanted to kill the pulse last time and the GEFS was right keeping it amped. Who's right this time, euro or GEFS?

1548940643010.png
 
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