Pattern Fabulous February

[snowlover91]

You mean the euro ? Cause the FV3 sucks


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Fv3 and Euro are the top two models for verification scores. Fv3 is much better than GFS and has been better at times than the Euro.

We are inside 200 hours now with a general threat window of February 8-10th showing up on models. Fun times ahead!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You mean the euro ? Cause the FV3 sucks


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Yeahhh... but no fr I was talking about the FV ?

 

[jackendrickwx]

I'll take this

 

[Webberweather53]

Congrats Louisiana then

DGEX is that u?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I'll take this

Wait wutttt, was that after the first interesting system ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I'll take this

Nope here’s the DGEX. Wowzer @Webberweather53

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

DGEX is that u?

Thought I had seen a ghost ???

 

[Storm5]

Fv3 and Euro are the top two models for verification scores. Fv3 is much better than GFS and has been better at times than the Euro.

We are inside 200 hours now with a general threat window of February 8-10th showing up on models. Fun times ahead!

I’ve seen the statistical graphics . And at H5 it has been doing well at certain leads . I’m still salty from Monday night to be honest . I hope some on the board score something nice over the next few weeks . I’ve set my expectations at zero


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[ForsythSnow]

I'll take this

95% ice I bet? The clown maps are fun, but I'm not buying a ticket to this circus yet.

 

[pcbjr]

I’ve set my expectations at zero

Far more optimistic than Hogtown, and that's for damn sure ...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Wait wutttt, was that after the first interesting system ?

Yes. I noted that the FV3 was going for another system after the first one in an earlier post.

It will mostly be ice I believe.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Wait wutttt, was that after the first interesting system ?

252 and on won't load for precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol I can already see the WAA, just like what @snowlover91 said that SER will be a issue, gonna cause more ice

 

[Shawn]

yeah. cae is still hell for those wondering:





And the clown maps above are just a sleet/zr storm for us.

 

[BufordWX]

 

[snowlover91]

I’ve seen the statistical graphics . And at H5 it has been doing well at certain leads . I’m still salty from Monday night to be honest . I hope some on the board score something nice over the next few weeks . I’ve set my expectations at zero


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I like the Fv3 inside 7 days, it is usually the first to pick up on H5 changes and trends from the storms I’ve followed closely. It’s thermal profiles are suspect at times with a cold bias in the extended range from what I’ve seen but it’s a great model for getting a picture of the overall 5H setup.

Hopefully the FV3 is right and we can get a board wide storm soon!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Sleetfest. Pass

 

[snowlover91]

Lol I can already see the WAA, just like what @snowlover91 said that SER will be a issue, gonna cause more ice
View attachment 14435

Yep the upcoming pattern favors ice over snow, that SER is going to have warm air trying to overtake the cold air. Could see a big ice storm if the HP is strong and in a good spot.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

FV3 at 240 on the 500 map:

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This is at least encouraging if nothing else. NS looks calm around this timeframe. Nice HP to work with if you believe what you’re looking at

 

[Snowfan]

Seems we have another storm signal.

 

[Kylo]

18z GEFS hitting the alcohol tonight.

 

[packfan98]

First glance at the GEFS supports the storms showing on the operational.

 

[Kylo]

DFW place to be in the south

 

[WxWatch]

I'll take this

That's mostly ice and sleet, that's why it shows high snowfall amounts, which it's not snow. I recommend not to fall for that clown map.

 

[Kylo]

Super active

 

[Stormlover]

DFW place to be in the south

View attachment 14444

why? there's more in Arkanss

 

[Kylo]

why? there's more in Arkanss

Brent is from Dallas. Anyone here from Arkansas?

 

[packfan98]

It definitely looks like there could be a CAD storm left to go this winter.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

From the way this looks, no thanks. Good chance I try to tap out if this becomes 3-4 days in advance:

 

[pcbjr]

It definitely looks like there could be a CAD storm left to go this winter.

is that what we're left with? ... yup, probably based on current dynamics ... stressing "current" ...

... in other words, there's always room for ...

 

[Arcc]

18z GEFS hitting the alcohol tonight.

View attachment 14442View attachment 14443

Nice positive PNA signal there as well.

 

[SD]

Sleetfest. Pass
View attachment 14438

Not a good setup if you want a pure snow event honestly. The evolution on the fv is driven by a low amplitude wave and strong waa over the existing surface cold. Would be the typical snow to sleet to freezing rain/ rain for many

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[Storm5]

Through day ten

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[Brent]

DFW place to be in the south

ha sure

 

[Rain Cold]

Sleetfest. Pass
View attachment 14438

Lol, I’ll take that all day freakin long.

 

[SD]

Its going to be interesting to see how things start to resolve on the models in the coming days. We could easily see the models stronger with the mid week system next week and flatten the above normal heights in the SE leaving us cold and dry ahead of the next rain maker early the next week. Conversely they could be too strong with the wave and the SE ridge flexes more and we are above normal and rainy. If we do happen to hit the sweet spot like the gfs/fv3 show the timing and amplitude of the disturbances embedded in the stj riding under the ridge in the pacific will change run to run so wild run to run changes are bound to happen. Its certainly an interesting period and one I personally am a little excited about. Give me an active STJ and cold readily available across southern canada and the northern us any winter and I will take my chances.

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[Myfrotho704_]

Not a good setup if you want a pure snow event honestly. The evolution on the fv is driven by a low amplitude wave and strong waa over the existing surface cold. Would be the typical snow to sleet to freezing rain/ rain for many

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December repeat but colder at the sfc? Based off what fv is showing

 

[SD]

December repeat but colder at the sfc? Based off what fv is showing

You could draw some similarities. Kind of reminds me of the mid feb 2014 evolution but that's just me shooting from the hip and not really digging in to it

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[Storm5]

Its going to be interesting to see how things start to resolve on the models in the coming days. We could easily see the models stronger with the mid week system next week and flatten the above normal heights in the SE leaving us cold and dry ahead of the next rain maker early the next week. Conversely they could be too strong with the wave and the SE ridge flexes more and we are above normal and rainy. If we do happen to hit the sweet spot like the gfs/fv3 show the timing and amplitude of the disturbances embedded in the stj riding under the ridge in the pacific will change run to run so wild run to run changes are bound to happen. Its certainly an interesting period and one I personally am a little excited about. Give me an active STJ and cold readily available across southern canada and the northern us any winter and I will take my chances.

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You really should be working more and not worrying about the weather


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