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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
I haven’t seen them yet, but I know you’re typically the perennial betting favorite for this just like you are for guessing the Dow open.

Meanwhile, check out the 18Z GEFS: SE torch is already DEAD on 2/11 followed by solid cold/+PNA/strong Greenland Block along with subtropical moisture in the area. To those thinking winter is about to be done after the next few days, think again!
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Haha I’m as wrong as it get me with this stuff! Good news about the 18z gefs!
 
Ive expierenced crap patterns all winter way worse than this one and hit the lotto late season. 1993, 2004, 2013( beleive that was the year) and a few others come to mind. But Im just wondering if ive used up all my credit and it needs time to rebuild. Ive got my biggest storms post Feb28th. 2002 had 17, 1993 was in cullowhee for those 15. The late season storms are eitheir historic or nada. My biggest displeasure is they melt away the next day.
 
GaWx said:
I haven’t seen them yet, but I know you’re typically the perennial betting favorite for this just like you are for guessing the Dow open.

Meanwhile, check out the 18Z GEFS: SE torch is already DEAD on 2/11 followed by solid cold/+PNA/strong Greenland Block along with subtropical moisture in the area. To those thinking winter is about to be done after the next few days, think again!
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Hopefully this gets pushed forward instead of back. Wouldn’t surprise me either way
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olhausen said:
Is that good or bad? Up here feb 16th- March 5th 2015 had epic cold and snow for February or any winter month for that matter. But I’ve also heard people further south missed out so it depends on where you lived.
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We had a small snow event in janurary 2015 and then had a 8-9 inches in February. So good for mby.
 
Rain Cold said:
This looks good to me:

View attachment 14173
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Same
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
As a matter of fact, I might be forced to use the word “epic”, stopping just short of Biblical or deathly amazing.
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The weeklies progression actually looks right to me. Finally they're realistic imo. I'm sure the se ridge would leave and the pna would return right in time for March. Smh.

And RC, I'm not used to seeing you this optimistic and positive. You're freakin me out man! Cut it out! Lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
The weeklies progression actually looks right to me. Finally they're realistic imo. I'm sure the se ridge would leave and the pna would return right in time for March. Smh.

And RC, I'm not used to seeing you this optimistic and positive. You're freakin me out man! Cut it out! Lol.
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I go where the data leads, baby! So far this winter, I have been optimistic about eventually getting into a colder and more favorable pattern, while concurrently being pessimistic about individual storm threats. The result of my optimism has yet to match the accuracy of my pessimism. Hopefully, that will soon change.
 
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Rain Cold said:
I go where the data leads, baby!
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If the gefs looks the same or similar a week from now I'll be right there with you! Be nice to get at least half of February favorable. However I doubt it'll last till tomorrow morning. I'm embittered!
 
SnowNiner said:
If the gefs looks the same or similar a week from now I'll be right there with you! Be nice to get at least half of February favorable. However I doubt it'll last till tomorrow morning. I'm embittered!
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Ha I’d be willing to bet that in a week they will look similar to the way they do today. Softball pitch alert for @Tarheel1
 
Back before Christmas, I remarked that the EURO weeklies were calling for warmer than normal for the first third to one half on January and was told "pay no attention to the weeklies cause they are trash". I did it because everyone was touting the wonderful January coming up (according to what the models were showing just prior to that time ) and I just wanted to caution that this was the first warning shot fired by the EURO or ANY OTHER MODEL that we might have a different result than what we could get. Now the reverse is true the EURO weeklies are showing warm or normal for the SE but this should also be considered only after it has occurred. Will it? Beats me but I won't count any monthly model projection coming out for February, good or bad
 
I am honestly happy to be leaving this polar vortex pattern, it gets cold but you usually only get these piddly storms like we will have on Tuesday, or it is very hard to time a short wave that doesn’t just get squashed. This pattern gives you a chance but as we have seen you often just get “teased” by the models over and over. Give me a better split flow pattern where storms have a better chance to amplify any day of the winter. I think by the second week in February a more productive flow over North America will give better odds for a big storm. At this point in my life I like any snow, but really yearn for that “big dog” to come around!
 
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