Kylo
Member
Agreed. I think/hope this is just a response to the slow roll through ph6. Ph7-8 are really good patterns for Feb.
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Agreed. I think/hope this is just a response to the slow roll through ph6. Ph7-8 are really good patterns for Feb.
If only it was January!? ;(
SnowNiner
Member
We've been waiting for the WAR to retrograde over the top all winter. I'm not confident that happens.
Hot off the press from JB:
“Bounce back warmups occur in high amp patterns when the intrusion of strong height falls naturally stimulate a response from ridges, They are not a sign winter is over, as the very pattern that enabled the extreme cold is still there as an underlying cause, GFS likely catching”
Any comments?
Edit: weeklies out shortly
“Bounce back warmups occur in high amp patterns when the intrusion of strong height falls naturally stimulate a response from ridges, They are not a sign winter is over, as the very pattern that enabled the extreme cold is still there as an underlying cause, GFS likely catching”
Any comments?
Edit: weeklies out shortly
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't look now but the ECMWF tries to develop a subtropical cyclone in the southwestern Atlantic around day 6.
Easy to spot the shallow warm core here on the model's 850 hPa temp field which is almost directly superimposed underneath the moderate-deep convection.
Already time to crank up the hurricane season thread? Lol.
Easy to spot the shallow warm core here on the model's 850 hPa temp field which is almost directly superimposed underneath the moderate-deep convection.
Already time to crank up the hurricane season thread? Lol.
Storm5
Member
I am sure this week three will verify
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I am sure this week three will verify
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That's not just the week 3 forecast, that's the difference of this week 3 forecast vs the previous run for the same time period, it's about 4-5F warmer than the last run. OOF
Yes.Maggie will cover the ground. cataloochie will get easy 2-4”
Jessy89
Member
Thank you. Got tired of seeing no snow at home. So packed the kids up brought them up here to hopefully see a good snow
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Jealous. Breathe it in! Eat some pancakes at Joey’s for me
Jessy89
Member
Oh we love that place! Eat there every time we come up
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So who won the Weeklies bet?
I haven’t seen them yet, but I know you’re typically the perennial betting favorite for this just like you are for guessing the Dow open.
Meanwhile, check out the 18Z GEFS: SE torch is already DEAD on 2/11 followed by solid cold/+PNA/strong Greenland Block along with subtropical moisture in the area. To those thinking winter is about to be done after the next few days, think again!
pcbjr
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
So maybe JB was right about something? I know he over hypes the cold but he is more knowledgeable then 100% of the people on this site.
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pcbjr
Member
Huh?
No offense to our friend SoutheastRidge, who we all love, but the SE Ridge is killed by then. This all would be just in time for prime time SE snow climo, especially during El Niño.
Shawn and rolltide win today’s Euro weeklies contest.Congratulations, they win a trip to the ECMWF HQ to see a future version of the weeklies being released before the rest of the world gets to see them!
The weeklies came in about normal for all of weeks 3-6, which means most weeks were warmer than the prior run. But here’s the good news.
We toss? Why? 1. They come out at Happy Hour and this is an extension of the SouthernWx Happy Hour GFS toss rule.
2. They’re out of date because the Weeklies are based on the 0Z EPS. We already know that the end of week 2 on the 12Z EPS was significantly better than the 0Z EPS in the Pacific. Furthermore, the 18Z GEFS late week 2 was much better than prior GEFS runs.
So, conclusion: today’s weeklies are an obvious toss.
The weeklies came in about normal for all of weeks 3-6, which means most weeks were warmer than the prior run. But here’s the good news.
We toss? Why? 1. They come out at Happy Hour and this is an extension of the SouthernWx Happy Hour GFS toss rule.
2. They’re out of date because the Weeklies are based on the 0Z EPS. We already know that the end of week 2 on the 12Z EPS was significantly better than the 0Z EPS in the Pacific. Furthermore, the 18Z GEFS late week 2 was much better than prior GEFS runs.
So, conclusion: today’s weeklies are an obvious toss.
Kylo
Member
Can’t unsee this.
NCSNOW
Member
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No doubt, and im still hopefull. But the pattern repetition weve had since mid Dec leades me to beleive mid feb re shuffle may yield same results. Well see. I just look at models for storms now, through chasing patterns 10+ days out once feb rolls around