B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I was thinking the same thing. It ended up trending colder as we got close for Raleigh and to the north and west. A lot folks dismissed the FV then, but it was pretty accurate for where I am.
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
I was thinking the same thing. It ended up trending colder as we got close for Raleigh and to the north and west. A lot folks dismissed the FV then, but it was pretty accurate for where I am.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The blind squirrel found a nut with this last arctic outbreak. Hopefully it's big brother the Fv3 has another one as we enter the 2nd week of February.
pcbjr
Member
Too much ... 
The southernwx check didn't comeYou really should be working more and not worrying about the weather
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Believe me it will be different next run.
Even IF it did happen, maybe it would trend colder at the last second like Feb 2014 did and get 3 inches of sleet. Yikes
olhausen
Member
Freezing rain is the one thing in weather that causes me to rather torch then deal with. A little bit is pretty cool to look at but no more then that.
You don't want to see the sounding. It'd be a ZR storm from Hell for a lot of people with the low sitting there like that. Deep warm layer with temperatures well below freezing at the ground level. Temperatures 27-29 degrees and that.. even under heavier circumstances would be very bad since latent heating from the freezing process wouldn't overcome it.
pcbjr
Member
Like some one said ... "too much" ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I.e. what HM is saying below is important and essentially we need to develop a big Scandinavian high (SCAND)-Eurasian trough couplet to produce a big cold outbreak and associated surface anticyclone (because obviously cold air is dense and surface pressures rise in response) which triggers a positively signed east Asia Mountain Torque. This SCAND-Eurasian trough couplet is kicked off in part by our huge vortex over eastern North America via a game of proverbial atmospheric hot potato where a Rossby wave packet emanates from the huge PV lobe.
If you recall, the positively signed mountain torque (as also shown below) actually acts to decelerate earth's rotation forcing the atmosphere (in the form of the Pacific jet) to pick up the slack & extend further into the Pacific >>> bigger Aleutian Low. The larger Aleutian Low (at least relative to the previous period) shifts the waves downstream further east, in particular the big Rockies trough we see in the first week or so of February moves eastward in response or at least isn't anywhere near as prominent.
Notice the big surface high descending towards Manchuria (northern China) & Mongolia.
The huge Hadley Cells in the eastern hemisphere which are partially a function of AGW + lack of a formidable NINO are gonna try to screw w/ this favorable large-scale signaling
If you recall, the positively signed mountain torque (as also shown below) actually acts to decelerate earth's rotation forcing the atmosphere (in the form of the Pacific jet) to pick up the slack & extend further into the Pacific >>> bigger Aleutian Low. The larger Aleutian Low (at least relative to the previous period) shifts the waves downstream further east, in particular the big Rockies trough we see in the first week or so of February moves eastward in response or at least isn't anywhere near as prominent.
Notice the big surface high descending towards Manchuria (northern China) & Mongolia.
The huge Hadley Cells in the eastern hemisphere which are partially a function of AGW + lack of a formidable NINO are gonna try to screw w/ this favorable large-scale signaling
but a couple tweaks and it’s all snow..
Primetime, baby!
I always like to see a wedge strong enough to push through GA and turn north up the great valley into TN. Usually means more sleet for us.
pcbjr
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
CAD exists east of the mountains as shallow cold air is trapped against the apps. A cold high over roughly upstate New York funnels in cold dry shallow air and locks it in
ATLwxfan
Member
Hard to believe ATL will be in the 70’s next week. Gotta believe we will have some severe weather to follow.
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agree, Instability will definitely be elevated with that SER pumping in warm, moist air, get a artic front to combine with some of that instability and were dealing with some severe weather
cd2play
Member
I'm telling you, they're not very good
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It’s been on the GFSv3 for all 4 runs, atleast for last 2 days!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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A December 02 look!
Kylo
Member
Just 3-6” across SE next 2 weeks. EPS isn’t far off, more TN valley jackpot.
NCCWOP9077
Member
Sub X MME (63 member ensemble) has slightly colder than normal temps for a good part of the eastern and southern US weeks 3-4 in February.
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Takes a good but more than 70's to get a decent severe weather event. A juiced up southern stream is not one of them, neither is arctic air.
Banter thread
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I know. That’s how it’s always is only to disappear after we all get sucked in.
Yeah but, we can't get "sucked" in. I'm even more "salty" with the models after the huge bust.
You have to move on. Kinda like having a motorcycle wreck. You just have to hoop back on and ride again. I have moved in. Let’s reel this one in!!!!
Big meaty 1047 dropping into MT on the GFS. Much stronger than 18z. Should be a fun run
It takes a strong high in perfect position but January 29 2005 is one example. In that setup cold air wrapped around the Apps into northwest GA, eastern AL, and east TN and dammed against the Cumberland Plateau. That was the last significant ice storm for East TN, northwest GA, and eastern AL.
NWS Morristown .... Local Weather History For January 29th... In 2005, freezing rain glazed the area with 1/4-1/2" of ice, many power lines downed.
https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_01282005
https://www.weather.gov/ffc/istorm13005
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS has our system around 180 still. 1047 HP dropping down, it was 1045.
Hey man. You were the 1st to call that system out and call it BS. You caved to the hype some but we all did. We all knew the bust potential was HUGE with an Arctic front supposedly leading moisture. That scenario never ends well for most of us and I will never trust another solution like that. Should have known better this time....
This setup = completely different.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GFS seems like it's continuing to take steps towards what the FV3 has been showing.
Snowflowxxl
Member
It's warmer for our system around 180 this time, but honestly its just nice to have a system and a strong HP at this point.
JLL1973
Member
More precip to the north on this run. Gfs is trending to the fv3 looks like
If we can get the energy to time out right. It should pulled down cold air into the system.
It takes a strong high in perfect position but January 29 2005 is one example. In that setup cold air wrapped around the Apps into northwest GA, eastern AL, and east TN and dammed against the Cumberland Plateau. That was the last significant ice storm for East TN, northwest GA, and eastern AL.
NWS Morristown .... Local Weather History For January 29th... In 2005, freezing rain glazed the area with 1/4-1/2" of ice, many power lines downed.
https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_01282005
https://www.weather.gov/ffc/istorm13005
I remember that icestorm very well, it was the highlight of that entire pathetic winter.