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Pattern Fabulous February

Stormdoc said:
I am honestly happy to be leaving this polar vortex pattern, it gets cold but you usually only get these piddly storms like we will have on Tuesday, or it is very hard to time a short wave that doesn’t just get squashed. This pattern gives you a chance but as we have seen you often just get “teased” by the models over and over. Give me a better split flow pattern where storms have a better chance to amplify any day of the winter. I think by the second week in February a more productive flow over North America will give better odds for a big storm. At this point in my life I like any snow, but really yearn for that “big dog” to come around!
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That is why I think this pattern is overhyped everytime. We don't need days of below normal temps. It was almost 70 degrees here a week before the storm in December. I think we have better shots at storms when we have a back and forth pattern like that than when we have days of really cold temps.
 
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
 
Poimen said:
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
Click to expand...
If we could just ease up bit on this progressive pattern ... get some cold air to settle in little longer .. it might work... if not. We’re going have to thread the needle again .... and usually that don’t play out to good for us ... hopefully the mjo is heading right direction .
 
Poimen said:
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
Click to expand...

Still a ways out, but hopefully this will be the real deal, and we can get some consistency on the models. It would be nice to know if this is something to really watch or just another 10 day fantasy.
 
Poimen said:
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
Click to expand...

Obviously bad idea to take the model verbatim but for everyone watching at home and beside themselves after this fail whale in AL, GA, & MS there's a lesson to be learned even by looking at this fv3 forecast. Anafronts like that do in fact work but the difference between what's modeled on the fv3 and today is that...

a) the front isn't moving very fast, so moisture can be continually replenished and advected more easily to same exact places on the cold side of the front
b) a wave of low pressure rides along the front and throws more moisture back into the cooler air, increasing both the intensity & longevity of precipitation and/or increasing local advection as cold air wraps in on the backside of the low.
c) usually helps to have the colder air already in place by the time the event begins

You typically need at least one if not more of the 3 above prerequisites to get an anafront setup to succeed and actually produce legitimate snow/ice. Pattern recognition like this may seem archaic but if more including professional mets in local NWS offices, were actually aware of what this setup actually was from the onset (crap because none of these aforementioned prerequisites were present) they wouldn't have been so apt to throw down winter storm warnings & get everyone else sucked into all the fantasy, bogus 10:1 clown maps particularly from the globals.
 
I am going to assure that we will have some winter weather soon. I will take one for the team and set some eggs to hatch. To be sure, there will be something to cause the power to go out and ruin them...I'm glad to do it though. I want snow:D
 
Wouldn’t surprise me if we have a shot at something in the last 10-12 days of February. End of the run 12z GFS and 06z GEFS trying to erode our SER/WAR (whatever it is not sure how to tell the difference quite honestly) and push it up into Greenland. Seen this movie before though so not sure I’m extremely excited about it. Waiting on the 12z GEFS
 
Fv3 now has the same over running winter storm threat in about 240 hours ... cmc showed potential too along with other models I think the potential is there for a more significant overrunning event during that period with a big high pressure coming down
 
One thing we know for certain, he WILL be wrong on his winter outllook for temps. He had us at -3 for the winter and in GSO we have been .5 below normal for Dec and a whopping 5.9 above normal for Jan. With the first 2 weeks of February looking warmish, it is almost impossible for him to catch up in the last 2 weeks of Feb unless the arctic decides to live in the SE Feb and March
 
MichaelJ said:
One thing we know for certain, he WILL be wrong on his winter outllook for temps. He had us at -3 for the winter and in GSO we have been .5 below normal for Dec and a whopping 5.9 above normal for Jan. With the first 2 weeks of February looking warmish, it is almost impossible for him to catch up in the last 2 weeks of Feb unless the arctic decides to live in the SE Feb and March
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Lol agreed
 
It survived the night, looks better toward the end of the run but not cold until the very end in the SE. That WAR will not go away to give us a true -NAO. Ridging up top, but no 50/50. Don't think that's going to help unless the PNA goes positive again.


1548784528118.png
 
MichaelJ said:
One thing we know for certain, he WILL be wrong on his winter outllook for temps. He had us at -3 for the winter and in GSO we have been .5 below normal for Dec and a whopping 5.9 above normal for Jan. With the first 2 weeks of February looking warmish, it is almost impossible for him to catch up in the last 2 weeks of Feb unless the arctic decides to live in the SE Feb and March
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March won't matter. His DJF forecast was for -3 to -5 much of the SE with colder than -5 centered on E TN. Huge bust is guaranteed though I predict he'll harp on the current Midwest record cold as evidence he did well/had the right idea.
 
Some things never change.

Kind of this VP200 quadripole in the western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean that's persisted thru the spring, summer, & fall and the entirety of this winter so far. Ahh, old habits die hard don't they, even when it comes to the climate system.

Persistence forecasting would have absolutely nailed the wave train that's emanating from it.

Previous summer & fall
compday.zydxnnJpR3.gif

This winter.
compday.Z8Zq30izsD.gif
 
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