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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
You're right. But I’m saying I like today's GEFS because I love the first week or so’s big drop in the amp vs recent day's progs (now going toward the COD) and I also feel the 2nd week's backwarsds move is just a bunch of doodoo (not believing it).
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Gotcha. I agree. I don't like seeing the second week's action, but it's probably overdone. JB says that pressures need to get up over Australia to force a trough in the east. That may be a couple weeks away, so it may fit with the MJO prog. Either way, there should still be areas of high pressure dropping into the US and spilling east, which could help, even with a tendency for some ridging along the east and southeastern seaboard. Maybe we can time something out, after the torch, before a better pattern sets in...hopefully.
 
Well, I think I found the ugliest analog ever...first the background to it...total precip for CHA for Nov-Jan is at 23.35 inches, which is the 4th wettest Nov-Jan ever recorded here going back to 1879. So being curious I looked at snowfall totals for the February-March period following the top 10 wettest November-Januarys...it's ugly.

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1.8

Granted, analogs don't tell the whole story and they are often wrong for seasonal forecasting, so I sure hope this is wrong too lol.
 
GFS tries
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Guys I think we gotta count that system late next week as something to watch, good overrunning setup, of course things can wildly change especially inside 24 hours.....
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Yeh there is certainly some moisture creeping around in the Deep South waiting to go over some cold air. Let's see how it unfolds..
 
GaWx said:
When was the last time this kind of reversal actually occurred in Feb?
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I have no idea. But I wouldn't put it past this winter. It seems to want to do it's own thing and is ignoring the shoulda's. This winter seems like something is going on in the maritimes where the mjo wants to be 4-6.
 
Sleet City USA said:
GFS tries
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
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The high is in a good spot and pretty strong. Definitely like that. Not sure the shortwave(s) in the southern stream are going to hold together, but it's not a bad look for a little something. Always like seeing high pressures drop into that area. That's the first thing on my checklist. Now, will it be there in 198 hours?
 
The FV3 does have something at 198 (and possibly before but I went directly to that number). I'm guessing when we have better maps it'll look like a major winter storm, but it mostly is for Tennessee and the western parts.

Now to explore further...
 
Not the best run of the CFSv2 on the second to last day of the month...we have one more day to turn this around. I could still work with this though.
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The good news is the model is seeing the cold HPs based on the 2mT look. It would be, by far, the coldest month of the winter.



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Jon said:
Not the best run of the CFSv2 on the second to last day of the month...we have one more day to turn this around. I could still work with this though.
194b8e2bfecdae07e86dc463dd3ff0aa.gif


The good news is the model is seeing the cold HPs based on the 2mT look. It would be, by far, the coldest month of the winter.



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I know you know this but for those who don't, the CFS turns on a dime sometimes in just 6 hours.
 
The gfs does have a storm the 13th and the 15th. Fantasy I know but happy to see some good looks


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Kylo said:
Wow, sure is. And inside day 10 :)
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I'm just not seeing the positive here. Ridging over the top but all the cold is in the west, central and the east torches still due to the SE ridge. 12 GEFS still has it hanging there through the end of the run. The greenland blocking is actually starting to look east based. Less ridging over Hudson Bay

All this can change, but I'm not particularly liking anything about that run. I just need to come back next week and see where we are. This pattern hunting is killing me. :confused:
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm just not seeing the positive here. Ridging over the top but all the cold is in the west, central and the east torches still due to the SE ridge. 12 GEFS still has it hanging there through the end of the run. The greenland blocking is actually starting to look east based. Less ridging over Hudson Bay

All this can change, but I'm not particularly liking anything about that run. I just need to come back next week and see where we are. This pattern hunting is killing me. :confused:
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This could work into something better fairly easily, HLB/-EPO. Will be interesting to see which gives, the -EPO or the west coast trough. Think there will hopefully be trough in plains.

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Kylo said:
This could work into something better fairly easily, HLB/-EPO. Will be interesting to see which gives, the -EPO or the west coast trough. Think there will hopefully be trough in plains.

View attachment 14389
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Very nice with Greenland, -AO, and -EPO blocking, At 2 meters, SE tmperatures for that same 8-13 day period are near normal as opposed to warmer than normal with cold just to our NW and there's lots of moisture..so a very workable pattern. Folks need to remember that we don't want a plunging cold pattern...those are normally very dry. who wants that here? Most here don't care about cold unless there's wintry precip.
 
Kylo said:
This could work into something better fairly easily, HLB/-EPO. Will be interesting to see which gives, the -EPO or the west coast trough. Think there will hopefully be trough in plains.

View attachment 14389
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That trough east of HI is not a good corroborator of a trough in the western US. It argues for the US trough to be farther east. Where does the model go over the next frames?
 
Kylo said:
These snow maps are so bad but still, just maybe.

View attachment 14390
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Hopefully, it will be accurate this go round. A lot of posters were saying not to worry about the ops and look at the ensembles with the threats we were supposed to have this week, and we got burned by them.
 
Jessy89 said:
The fv3 sure is locked in on the icy look on the 10th


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The GEFS has quite a few members with something around then as well although they differ quite a bit with track and timing... a solid signal for something of interest at least. The February 8-12th period REALLY interests me for a possible snow/ice threat for many in the south.
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Look at this HP, you can't get much better than this look right here. If we can get a cold front to stall and a wave or multiple waves to move along it many would be in business.
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snowlover91 said:
The GEFS has quite a few members with something around then as well although they differ quite a bit with track and timing... a solid signal for something of interest at least. The February 8-12th period REALLY interests me for a possible snow/ice threat for many in the south.
View attachment 14396

Look at this HP, you can't get much better than this look right here. If we can get a cold front to stall and a wave or multiple waves to move along it many would be in business.
View attachment 14397
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Definitely a very interesting threat if modeled correctly. If being the key word. Any north trending of that PV lobe and its over. I wouldn't like to bet against those odds.

The FV3 is pretty much deja vu of yesterday's storm.
 
Arcc said:
Definitely a very interesting threat if modeled correctly. If being the key word. Any north trending of that PV lobe and its over. I wouldn't like to bet against those odds.
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Yeah still a long ways out but there is at least a solid signal from the GEFS and FV3 of some activity worth watching. The latest FV3 has a 1048 HP in a nice position with ice all the way into southern GA. I like this period quite a bit, the look of strong HP after strong HP dropping down on the GEFS and FV3 is intriguing. As soon as one leaves a new one is dropping down. Some icy threats coming up if that pattern were to verify.

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snowlover91 said:
Yeah still a long ways out but there is at least a solid signal from the GEFS and FV3 of some activity worth watching. The latest FV3 has a 1048 HP in a nice position with ice all the way into southern GA. I like this period quite a bit, the look of strong HP after strong HP dropping down on the GEFS and FV3 is intriguing. As soon as one leaves a new one is dropping down. Some icy threats coming up if that pattern were to verify.

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Agree on both counts. Definitely about time for a board wide ice threat.
 
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