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Pattern Fabulous February

Rain Cold said:
I definitely see some strong warm shots showing up in the long range, but I'm not really concerned about a warm pattern locking in for the SE. I don't think the backloaded consistent cold pattern has much of a chance either. It's probably going to be variable, averaging out within a degree or two of normal from here on out. We'll still have a shot at another winter storm or two before all is said and done.
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Now that its almost Feb1st, that's all that matters. I love long sustained Cold and don't care if its dry or not. However thats not gonna happen this year as we close out the last month of met winter. Also by Feb 1st I realize winter will start waning now on a daily basis. I can already tell when I get home in evenings last week it wasn't quite yet pitch black dark. If we could only get summer to come and go as fast as winter seems to. Summer always gets going a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule and seems to hang around an extra couple of weeks on the tail end.
 
NCSNOW said:
Now that its almost Feb1st, that's all that matters. I love long sustained Cold and don't care if its dry or not. However thats not gonna happen this year as we close out the last month of met winter. Also by Feb 1st I realize winter will start waning now on a daily basis. I can already tell when I get home in evenings last week it wasn't quite yet pitch black dark. If we could only get summer to come and go as fast as winter seems to. Summer always gets going a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule and seems to hang around an extra couple of weeks on the tail end.
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We could still have close to 3 weeks of sustained cold in Feb. It is too early to make that call.
 
NCSNOW said:
Now that its almost Feb1st, that's all that matters. I love long sustained Cold and don't care if its dry or not. However thats not gonna happen this year as we close out the last month of met winter. Also by Feb 1st I realize winter will start waning now on a daily basis. I can already tell when I get home in evenings last week it wasn't quite yet pitch black dark. If we could only get summer to come and go as fast as winter seems to. Summer always gets going a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule and seems to hang around an extra couple of weeks on the tail end.
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If you remember last year we got cold to late. We still have plenty of time as I am sure something will pop up between Feb 10th and 20th. Even 20th thru end of month. We have plowed many times in between those dates.
 
GaWx said:
We could still have close to 3 weeks of sustained cold in Feb. It is too early to make that call.
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I agree that we could, but I don't think we will. But we don't need it in order to snow. Don't get me wrong, though. I'd much rather have sustained cold than not.
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree that we could, but I don't think we will. But we don't need it in order to snow. Don't get me wrong, though. I'd much rather have sustained cold than not.
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I think what's more of the concern is the overall H5 setup. If we get an unfavorable setup such as a GOA low or the SER coming in and not moving, we can punt at least that week it dominates. Since things aren't showing any sticking pattern in the LR then maybe we could get lucky and see something. I just hope we don't get another false hope storm or just too warm event.
 
All aboard!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree that we could, but I don't think we will. But we don't need it in order to snow. Don't get me wrong, though. I'd much rather have sustained cold than not.
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Agreed. If I had to bet, we've lost the +PNA for the winter. Tropical forcing is all kinds of messed up and has been all winter. I don't see that changing. We may finally get a stout -NAO to show up to keep us in the game a couple more times. My optimism however for the rest of the winter is gone.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Is this a cold look? smh
View attachment 14084
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Not really, but check this out:

Here is today's 12z FV-3 (top) and yesterday's 18z FV-3 (bottom). If you want southern sliders and overrunning events in the south and southeast, you need an upper level pattern that evolves similar to this, especially the 18z. Heights press south, due to blocking. You don't have a big wound up PV/cold center (particularly on the 18z). Cold highs move across the northern tier instead of dropping into the SE or due south into TX. Waves can move across the southern tier without getting too wound up and cutting. Great pattern shown on the 18z, especially, although the 12z isn't all that far off. In fact, the last several runs of the FV-3 have evolved similarly near the end. This doesn't mean that we'll go this way, but it should offer hope that we have plenty of cold nearby to tap. The bottom line is, whatever warm pattern we get shouldn't have a lot of staying power, nor should it be hard to work out of.

12z.png

18.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I thought we learned a lesson too about cold fronts showing snow...
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That lesson won’t be learned until tomorrow afternoon, when Al/GA peeps are looking at bare ground! Some people are visual learners! LMAO
 
Rain Cold said:
Not really, but check this out:

Here is today's 12z FV-3 (top) and yesterday's 18z FV-3 (bottom). If you want southern sliders and overrunning events in the south and southeast, you need an upper level pattern that evolves similar to this, especially the 18z. Heights press south, due to blocking. You don't have a big wound up PV/cold center (particularly on the 18z). Cold highs move across the northern tier instead of dropping into the SE or due south into TX. Waves can move across the southern tier without getting too wound up and cutting. Great pattern shown on the 18z, especially, although the 12z isn't all that far off. In fact, the last several runs of the FV-3 have evolved similarly near the end. This doesn't mean that we'll go this way, but it should offer hope that we have plenty of cold nearby to tap. The bottom line is, whatever warm pattern we get shouldn't have a lot of staying power, nor should it be hard to work out of.

View attachment 14086

View attachment 14087
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Somebody needs to smack the pizzert out of your mouth! Showing 384 GFS maps!!
 
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