Ensembles at 384 are almost as useless as Ops at 384. At least the Ops carry the benefit of giving you a nice 6 sd fantasy block, a once-in-a-100-year PV intrusion into the deep south, or a monster SE blizzard on occasion.
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
12z GFS gave me mid 70’s at 198 lol
Is that past truncation? I think that used to be 192. Wonder if that's still the case?
Jessy89
Member
Anyone think I’ll see a couple inches of snow. If I spend the night in Maggie valley tonight?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Kylo
Member
EPS day 10 v/s day 12 from 2 days ago.
Weeks 3-6 will be the coldest and snowiest we have ever seen! And they will look that way next run, then the run after that, until April and we will never see the dream pattern materialize, unless your dream pattern is spring or summer
A middle ground between torchy and colder. Basically a stalemate and more of the wait and see thing. lol
Kylo
Member
Flip by mid Feb with major blocking/cold. It's made it this far on that forecast, why stop now.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RollTide18
Member
A mix, nothing locked in.
All out reversal torch zonal southeast ridge raging +epoalnaowpo.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Warmer for the first week beyond what we already know from the EPS. About the same as the last time for the weeks after that week.
Though the SE ridge is stubborn as a mule and there's plenty of SE torch on it as a result, the 12Z EPS actually looks better Pacific-wise on many days vs the 0Z. The Plains states are significantly colder vs the 0Z 2/2 to the end of the run. The 348 hour map looks markedly better than the 0Z's 360. My point is that it wouldn't take too much of a shift from the 12Z EPS to bring back cold to the SE.
Kylo
Member
It was a better run, has the -EPO most of the run was some blocking. And with cold dumped into the conus wouldn't take to much to give chances.
![14-km EPS Global United States 5-d Avg T2M Anom [C] 360.png](https://southernwx.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/data/attachments/14/14130-05a5c05e2957396c13334b4edc5f7d35.jpg "14-km EPS Global United States 5-d Avg T2M Anom [C] 360.png")
SnowNiner
Member
Why is the recent one better? Not wambulancing, I just don't see much difference. The WAR and SE ridge is a tad stronger and maybe a bit more ridging up over Alaska. Other than that seem very crappy in the pacific and north atlantic.
I know you're not asking about today's 12Z. but the 12Z is clearly the best of the 3 late in the run in the Pacific as Kylo just commented on.
#-EPO. Now if would also shift to a +PNA, we should really be in business again.
Watch for the two areas of blocking to move north and connect over the top, forcing the trough out west to come east and southeast. The trough over HI comes east and the low NW of the Aleutians moves down into proper position. Great pattern coming.
This year has a 2015 feel to it.