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Pattern Fabulous February

snowlover91 said:
We at least have what appears to be a pretty strong HP that will drop down. If we can get some overrunning precip or a Gulf low to coincide with that HP it would make things very interesting.
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Interesting to see if that storm/cutter before the strong high pressure moves in can leave a stationary front in the gulf, but anyways I agree this is way more of a classic setup for wintry weather in the SE not no damn cold chasing moisture lol
 
Flurry said:
Who's starting the thread for the 8th??? o_O
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No one should this early... in my opinion I'd say threads only need to be started when they are 4-5 days out and with a good model consensus. With the way things have gone lately it might be best to just wait until the event starts and have an observation thread lol.
 
snowlover91 said:
No one should this early... in my opinion I'd say threads only need to be started when they are 4-5 days out and with a good model consensus. With the way things have gone lately it might be best to just wait until the event starts and have an observation thread lol.
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Seriously, wait until within 4 days and model consensus.
 
Storm5 said:
There are some eps members interested in the 8th-10th


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Sounds like we have pretty good model agreement for something of interest then at least. As long as we have a 1045+ HP and it's in a favorable area I like the chances. It's probably going to be more of an ice threat if anything too.
 
snowlover91 said:
This screams ice threat to me... that SER will try to push up some warm air over the cold air filtering down...
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Yes, there would be ice threats with that look across the eastern parts of the southeastern US. Snow further west of the southeastern US. It is too far out though to really know how its going to play out. I'm sure it will change.
 
Also once those high pressure slide towards the NE.... get that perfectly timed and your getting a strong CAD, this time tho there will probably be more snowpack which will allow for less moderation, this can apply for much of the SE aswell as there will likely be more snowpack to our north than previous setups
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WxWatch said:
Yes, there would be ice threats with that look across the eastern parts of the southeastern US. Snow further west of the southeastern US. It is too far out though to really know how its going to play out. I'm sure it will change.
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No doubt it will change but looking at the big picture you have a similar synoptic setup on the main global models. With a strong HP moving in and the possibility of precip in the area at the same time it's a solid signal for an ice threat in the February 8-12th period.
 
Sort of shows what JB has been saying he thinks will happen. Strongest height anomaly in the NAO region. Check. Trough near HI to come east. Ridge south of AK to move north, weaken, and link with the anomaly near Greenland. Strongest negative US anomaly takes up residence in the SE, giving way to more ridging in the west. Sets the stage for the harshest 20-30 day period in the SE in decades. I'm quite sure it won't pan out like that, but it would be nice to see at least a widely favorable pattern lock in for a week or so.

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom 360.jpg
 
Rain Cold said:
Sort of shows what JB has been saying he thinks will happen. Strongest height anomaly in the NAO region. Check. Trough near HI to come east. Ridge south of AK to move north, weaken, and link with the anomaly near Greenland. Strongest negative US anomaly takes up residence in the SE, giving way to more ridging in the west. Sets the stage for the harshest 20-30 day period in the SE in decades. I'm quite sure it won't pan out like that, but it would be nice to see at least a widely favorable pattern lock in for a week or so.

View attachment 14413
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If it weren't for the 1st sentence, some old Curmudgeon would have found a way to do 10 likes on this post ... This is just the sort of stuff so many need to see for all sorts or reasons, learning being just one of them ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
If it weren't for the 1st sentence, some old Curmudgeon would have found a way to do 10 likes on this post ... This is just the sort of stuff so many need to see for all sorts or reasons, learning being just one of them ... ;)
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Yeah, JB is a hypster, no doubt. But he's not alone in steadfastly calling for a strong finish to winter, which raises the credibility somewhat. The "worst period in decades", however, is quintessential JB, which is why you have to have your JB BS filter charged up when reading his stuff.

And on a side note, but somewhat related, why does everything now (not just in weather, but in virtually every facet of life) have to be labeled as THE BEST or THE WORST or characterized using the most extreme language? We live in a world that has rapidly devalued real and reasonable and quality information in favor of clicks, likes, and views. It is not a good trend for humanity in general, and it will reach a tipping point. When the pendulum eventually does swing back the other way, and it will, it's going to be swift and vicious.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, JB is a hypster, no doubt. But he's not alone in steadfastly calling for a strong finish to winter, which raises the credibility somewhat. The "worst period in decades", however, is quintessential JB, which is why you have to have your JB BS filter charged up when reading his stuff.

And on a side note, but somewhat related, why does everything now (not just in weather, but in virtually every facet of life) have to be labeled as THE BEST or THE WORST or characterized using the most extreme language? We live in a world that has rapidly devalued real and reasonable and quality information in favor of clicks, likes, and views. It is not a good trend for humanity in general, and it will reach a tipping point. When the pendulum eventually does swing back the other way, and it will, it's going to be swift and vicious.
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10 more likes ...
...though all I was sayin' is that the teach-and-learn seems to have been diluted and your post emphasizes the sorely (sometimes) missing ... thanks RC (almost accidentally inverted those initials ... LOL) ...
 
pcbjr said:
10 more likes ...
...though all I was sayin' is that the teach-and-learn seems to have been diluted and your post emphasizes the sorely (sometimes) missing ... thanks RC (almost accidentally inverted those initials ... LOL) ...
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Don't do it. Cold Rain does not exist in this universe! :)
 
Incredibly snowy runs on the ensembles today, given that they had very little of any members on the 00z suites!
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Yeah, the 8th through the 14th is looking very interesting today. Going to be a wild two weeks coming up seeing if things work out.
 
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