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Pattern Fabulous February

The southern stream remains active in the medium/LR guidance. If true, and if it remains active through February and early March, we should be able to get at least one viable widespread winter storm threat, I'd think.
 
BufordWX said:
Based on TT maps I can’t tell if the euro has that storm at the end of next week, but looks like it has the cold with a 1047 High dropping out of Canada. My takeaway from tonight’s model runs are that at least the cold air looks to return by the end of next week, but of course a lot can and will change by then.View attachment 14360
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This is exactly why I said to watch Feb 12 for a pattern change back to cold and it looks even earlier than I thought! There’s no feature that will lock a bad pattern in atm. Can’t trust Day 15 anomalous heat!

Hopefully the ensembles turn around as well.


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tennessee storm said:
We all know how this last cold air done... wasted ... im skeptical....
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The cold air on the Euro and other modeling is different than the cold air associated with a PV. It’s a true high digging over the west and moving east with time. 1040-1050mb or so. With good timing, this is when we can get a good southern storm track. With cold air associated with a PV, all the cold air is wrapped up around the PV lobe itself.


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I don't know why folks want cold from a polar vortex anyway. It never results in any action here. We have our best chances when we go from warm to just cold enough. It's a thin line, but it still gives us a better shot at getting an actual storm to work out than it does when we rely on the polar vortex for the cold air.
 
Well, everybody was saying backloaded winter! Its not even February yet, we will have more opportunities, I'm sure.
 
And if we really warm up the beginning of next week to near 70, and there is a storm showing up on the models next weekend in the long range, I'd say that's a good sign and to keep watching.
 
I think I could roll with this setup. With some adjustments it looks good (minus the zr lol)
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png
 
The FV3 and Euro both have an interesting look starting around day 8-9, basically a sharp gradient between warm air from the south and colder air trying to filter in from the north. Looks like a setup that could be quite icy with some snow at times if this verifies... and from the looks of the FV3 it could be multiple systems close together.
 
The 6z FV-3 is essentially a parade of southern stream storms and cold arctic highs in the medium to LR portion of it's run. If something like that comes to fruition, and I expect it will for a time, we are going to be very busy. This thread might actually even outpace the complaint thread for a short time!
 
Rain Cold said:
The 6z FV-3 is essentially a parade of southern stream storms and cold arctic highs in the medium to LR portion of it's run. If something like that comes to fruition, and I expect it will for a time, we are going to be very busy. This thread might actually even outpace the complaint thread for a short time!
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The 6z Retired GFS, has a few very near misses, or NC specials , in the same timeframe!
 
Everyone who’s skeptical of the model outputs getting active shouldn’t be skeptical. The difference between the cold we experienced/ are experiencing now is the polar vortex lobe slapping up in the face then saying bye. That is hard to get systems to match up with a small window of time. But the upcoming pattern featured long lasting cold enough air, constant cold high pressures from the north. This is going to prove to have many chances of winter precip over the coming weeks into mid and late February. People who called off winter ... are going to have a very awkward next few weeks in the SNOW LOL
 
Yeah, the GEFS wants to keep the SE ridge hanging around longer and longer over night. Not a trend I want to see. Until that's gone and we're in an eastern trough I can't be optimistic. The central/western trough looks like it has staying power.

1548859133509.png
 
I got say, for now I'm pumped about next week, Jon and Webb has been talking about this time frame for us to watch. This thread should be named "February prime time"
 
accu35 said:
I got say, for now I'm pumped about next week, Jon and Webb has been talking about this time frame for us to watch. This thread should be named "February prime time"
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I'm still going with flambè February. I don't feel any of this will materialize for most of us. Plus next week is a pure torch.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, the GEFS wants to keep the SE ridge hanging around longer and longer over night. Not a trend I want to see. Until that's gone and we're in an eastern trough I can't be optimistic. The central/western trough looks like it has staying power.

View attachment 14381
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I’ll ask how often has gefs been right this year?


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ForsythSnow said:
I'm still going with flambè February. I don't feel any of this will materialize for most of us. Plus next week is a pure torch.
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“Pure torch” lol it’s a couple warm days and then cold returns ... I mean we live in the south east did u expect pure cold all the time ... it just doesn’t happen .. u should be happy for the break cause it’s not going to last long
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
“Pure torch” lol it’s a couple warm days and then cold returns ... I mean we live in the south east did u expect pure cold all the time ... it just doesn’t happen .. u should be happy for the break cause it’s not going to last long
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If you check the EPS and GEFS, both perpetuate the SER the entire week. Never a good sign when they show more than a couple of days in the ensembles.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, the GEFS wants to keep the SE ridge hanging around longer and longer over night. Not a trend I want to see. Until that's gone and we're in an eastern trough I can't be optimistic. The central/western trough looks like it has staying power.

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It's also got a pretty pronounced -NAO. That right there pretty much tells me all I need to know about the probability of this look verifying. Honestly though this is not a bad look at all as far as I'm concerned. Troughing near Hawaii, ridging south of Alaska.The aforementioned ridging into Greenland. I would absolutely take my chances with this look. That has a look of ice with cold air undercutting the WAR. We will see where we head but I am unusually optimistic.
 
As for as I know anything is possible for the month of February to early March at least that's what Joe bastardi thinks in his case for the south we should get back cold with more chances of snow starting around next weekend and onward... But I'm very optimistic especially with how weird this winter has been for us Southerners
 
mrdaddyman said:
EPS is showing the same thing.
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It just looks like a overall warm pattern. With the slight potential for a High pressure and low pressure to line up. Just gonna be very hard to thread the needle. So far Fv3 is all alone with it’s fantasy storms. Although other models are close. There needs to be support before it’s even a possibility


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ForsythSnow said:
If you check the EPS and GEFS, both perpetuate the SER the entire week. Never a good sign when they show more than a couple of days in the ensembles.
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Just like they consistently showed an epic cold pattern for cold that didn't really verify ;) Ensembles are useful but they aren't gospel; they struggle to pick up on important details due to the way things are smoothed. We are basically seeing a brief reload before a colder shift again around February 8-10 and we may have some winter threats to track for the 8-12th timeframe IMO.
 
Jessy89 said:
It just looks like a overall warm pattern. With the slight potential for a High pressure and low pressure to line up. Just gonna be very hard to thread the needle. So far Fv3 is all alone with it’s fantasy storms. Although other models are close. There needs to be support before it’s even a possibility


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You may want to change your handle to "Captain Obvious" because we are always threading the needle in the south when it comes to winter weather. This pattern does not look overall "warm" to me. A few days of above average and then right back to average to below. That WAR tho.....
 
May need a thread for severe early next week...from Huntsville NWS:
This will result in an even greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from Monday night-Tuesday, and based on a
favorable overlap of increasing instability and strengthening deep-
layer shear we could be dealing with a potential severe thunderstorm
event at some point in the Monday night-Tuesday night timeframe
 
Chattownsnow said:
It's also got a pretty pronounced -NAO. That right there pretty much tells me all I need to know about the probability of this look verifying. Honestly though this is not a bad look at all as far as I'm concerned. Troughing near Hawaii, ridging south of Alaska.The aforementioned ridging into Greenland. I would absolutely take my chances with this look. That has a look of ice with cold air undercutting the WAR. We will see where we head but I am unusually optimistic.
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Keep in mind that strong Greenland blocking can occur (and recently has occurred I believe) with a neutral NAO. I think this is causing confusion as it did for me recently til I learned something new thanks to a pro met I talked to. So, just because GEFS progs have a neutral NAO does not at all mean it isn’t predicting a Greenland block.
 
From Radiant mets this morning:

“Is February Setting Up To Be Warmer Like Last Year?
With the pattern taking on –PNA characteristics through the early half of February based on current modeling, there is obvious concern that February may look a lot like it did last year--note the similarities of the projected pattern with what was observed in February 2018 at the 500mb level. A repeat of this would almost certainly lower the national GWHDD totals that are within our forecast for the month. There is reason to question the durability of the –PNA pattern this year based on the set up in the tropics. The map below shows OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) anomalies observed in the 2018 case, and this is a classic setup in the tropics to produce a –PNA Northern Hemisphere response. The main factors to note are the +OLR anomalies along the equator from around the International Dateline toward the east through the ENSO regions. Also, the –OLR anomalies (indicative of storminess) around Indonesia also have a role. The hovmoller plot on right is from the ECMWF Weeklies model, and it shows historical data back to late December in the top half and forecast data on the bottom half. In the forecast data there are two main anomaly centers of note. The first being –OLR anomalies near the International Dateline and the other being the +OLR anomalies around Indonesia. This is an opposing setup than was observed in February 2018 and one typically associated with the +PNA. Confidence in the durability of the pattern is low because of this.”
 
accu35 said:
I got say, for now I'm pumped about next week, Jon and Webb has been talking about this time frame for us to watch. This thread should be named "February prime time"
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Oh yeah, can't forget about Larry, he's been in this up coming month as well.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
@GaWx

Larry, Do you think the more favorable MJO phase will assist in being helpful in this pattern?
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Although there are no guarantees and every situation is different, I like where the MJO is going, especially if it follows near today’s EPS path, which is similar to recent days’ EPS progs. Note how much the GEFS changed today, much closer to what the EPS has been showing!
 
Rain Cold said:
This seems like a step back. Hopefully, this will correct more favorably:

View attachment 14383
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RC, Actually, I thought the opposite. I like this big change in today’s GEFS vs recent days’ GEFS. I’m saying this because I love the first week or so’s big drop in the amp and feel the 2nd week is a bunch of doodoo (not believing it).
 
GaWx said:
RC, Actually, I thought the opposite. I like this big change in today’s GEFS vs recent days’ GEFS.
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I thought I saw one yesterday where it made it out of phase 6 pretty quickly and didn't circle back as big. It may have been the Euro or Op or something that I saw instead of this one.
 
GaWx said:
Although there are no guarantees and every situation is different, I like where the MJO is going, especially if it follows near today’s EPS path, which is similar to recent days’ EPS progs. Note how much the GEFS changed today, much closer to what the EPS has been showing!
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It sure is hanging out in Phase 7 for a long time! Only one other phase is "better" but I like how we hang out in 7!
 
Rain Cold said:
I thought I saw one yesterday where it made it out of phase 6 pretty quickly and didn't circle back as big. It may have been the Euro or Op or something that I saw instead of this one.
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You're right. But I’m saying I like today's GEFS because I love the first week or so’s big drop in the amp vs recent day's progs (now going toward the COD) and I also feel the 2nd week's backwarsds move is just a bunch of doodoo (not believing it).
 
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