Brent
Member
so when does Fabulous February start??
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Obviously in Marvelous March!
Brent
Member
can't wait for the 40 and rain while thinking of what could have been
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That is why I think this pattern is overhyped everytime. We don't need days of below normal temps. It was almost 70 degrees here a week before the storm in December. I think we have better shots at storms when we have a back and forth pattern like that than when we have days of really cold temps.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.
This thread should be popping later
tennessee storm
Member
If we could just ease up bit on this progressive pattern ... get some cold air to settle in little longer .. it might work... if not. We’re going have to thread the needle again .... and usually that don’t play out to good for us ... hopefully the mjo is heading right direction .Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.
Still a ways out, but hopefully this will be the real deal, and we can get some consistency on the models. It would be nice to know if this is something to really watch or just another 10 day fantasy.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Once again the main take away from the overnight modeling is the return of the active southern stream. The 6Z FV 3 has this at day 10-11. We can work with this setup if it were to verify.
Obviously bad idea to take the model verbatim but for everyone watching at home and beside themselves after this fail whale in AL, GA, & MS there's a lesson to be learned even by looking at this fv3 forecast. Anafronts like that do in fact work but the difference between what's modeled on the fv3 and today is that...
a) the front isn't moving very fast, so moisture can be continually replenished and advected more easily to same exact places on the cold side of the front
b) a wave of low pressure rides along the front and throws more moisture back into the cooler air, increasing both the intensity & longevity of precipitation and/or increasing local advection as cold air wraps in on the backside of the low.
c) usually helps to have the colder air already in place by the time the event begins
You typically need at least one if not more of the 3 above prerequisites to get an anafront setup to succeed and actually produce legitimate snow/ice. Pattern recognition like this may seem archaic but if more including professional mets in local NWS offices, were actually aware of what this setup actually was from the onset (crap because none of these aforementioned prerequisites were present) they wouldn't have been so apt to throw down winter storm warnings & get everyone else sucked into all the fantasy, bogus 10:1 clown maps particularly from the globals.
Disregard anything the FV3 says. We’re going back to cutters no doubt about it. It’s a wash rinse repeat pattern were in
I am going to assure that we will have some winter weather soon. I will take one for the team and set some eggs to hatch. To be sure, there will be something to cause the power to go out and ruin them...I'm glad to do it though. I want snow
FWIW JB says winter coming back feb 15-march 15th. We shall see if he is right or not before bashing him
Wouldn’t surprise me if we have a shot at something in the last 10-12 days of February. End of the run 12z GFS and 06z GEFS trying to erode our SER/WAR (whatever it is not sure how to tell the difference quite honestly) and push it up into Greenland. Seen this movie before though so not sure I’m extremely excited about it. Waiting on the 12z GEFS
Fv3 now has the same over running winter storm threat in about 240 hours ... cmc showed potential too along with other models I think the potential is there for a more significant overrunning event during that period with a big high pressure coming down
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If he keeps saying this all winter, as he has, there’s always a chance for a hit.
MichaelJ
Member
One thing we know for certain, he WILL be wrong on his winter outllook for temps. He had us at -3 for the winter and in GSO we have been .5 below normal for Dec and a whopping 5.9 above normal for Jan. With the first 2 weeks of February looking warmish, it is almost impossible for him to catch up in the last 2 weeks of Feb unless the arctic decides to live in the SE Feb and March
Lol agreed
SnowNiner
Member
It survived the night, looks better toward the end of the run but not cold until the very end in the SE. That WAR will not go away to give us a true -NAO. Ridging up top, but no 50/50. Don't think that's going to help unless the PNA goes positive again.
March won't matter. His DJF forecast was for -3 to -5 much of the SE with colder than -5 centered on E TN. Huge bust is guaranteed though I predict he'll harp on the current Midwest record cold as evidence he did well/had the right idea.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some things never change.
Kind of this VP200 quadripole in the western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean that's persisted thru the spring, summer, & fall and the entirety of this winter so far. Ahh, old habits die hard don't they, even when it comes to the climate system.
Persistence forecasting would have absolutely nailed the wave train that's emanating from it.
Previous summer & fall
This winter.
Kind of this VP200 quadripole in the western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean that's persisted thru the spring, summer, & fall and the entirety of this winter so far. Ahh, old habits die hard don't they, even when it comes to the climate system.
Persistence forecasting would have absolutely nailed the wave train that's emanating from it.
Previous summer & fall
This winter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
Here comes another downwelling Kelvin Wave trying to give El Nino another go later this year.
Here comes another downwelling Kelvin Wave trying to give El Nino another go later this year.
Please post?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
MJO hit the breaks in phase 6, like ffs can we please get it into cold phases for a while.
360 hour map: I can't post it, but I'll describe it. Nice blocking combo of -AO, Greenland, and -EPO with cross polar flow. WSW H5 flow SE bringing in plentiful moisture as SE ridge giving way. Cold most of country just to our NW. SE near normal but we don't want a plunge of cold as that's normally very dry. We want the edge of it mixing with moisture. This is not far from that. Of course, this is well out in long range. So, take with a grain. But gives us hope for mid-Feb/primetime for snow per history.
packfan98
Moderator
At this point,I'm not sure if I want another El Nino after what this winter and the other recent El Nino in the 2015-2016 winter has been. This winter is even worse than last year and many other winters that were La Nina's/non El Nino's.
Thanks. That's better than a sharp stick in the eye, but I'm not sure I'd call that an effective -NAO, although the values would probably be negative. Would be better to have an elongated PV, squashed southeast by a high pressure zone over Greenland. The EPO region looks good and we don't have a raging Pac Jet. The WAR is gone and the SE ridge is retreating, which is good. The storm track is still going to be too far north. But hopefully, we can get a Miller B out of it. Hopefully even more, it evolves into a more favorable pattern.
JB still thinks the SE will experience a very harsh 30 day period of winter weather, centered in the SE after Feb 10th or so. He's been all over that, so we'll have to see if it works out. I'm skeptical.
Also, it's good to remember the above image is a blend. The trough in the west could end up being centered farther east. And the PV could be as well. Anyway, better to see an image like that than some of the recent ones. Also good to see Webber's MJO post with the pulse looking more likely to make it into the colder phases. My own feeling is that winter only takes a brief hiatus. We'll have a couple of more legit chances for snow.
The winter isn't over and a good portion of the El Nino prime climo period is still ahead. Even if the current one fails, longterm climo studies would still show El Nino better than La Nina for much of SE for wintry, especially snow.
Aside: the best ENSO for ATL and vicinity for major ZR, alone, has actually been cold neutral.
Oh my. Looking over the GEFS, EPS, and operationals from the past couple of days, there is absolutely nothing in the line of Winter weather for the central Midlands. Not even a fantasy ensemble member with a big storm. This does not bode well.
Yeah, nothing showing but looking towards the ends of the ensemble runs suggests potential just with relatively subtle changes in H5. Keep in mind that there will always verify differently that far out in time (hopefully slightly better in this case). The supply of Arctic air would at the least not be too far away. If the MJO is favorable and we have a solid -AO, Greenland block, and -EPO, there will very likely be plenty of cold air not far away at the least.
Kylo
Member
Well in Dec after MJO traversed 8-1-2, NC/VA had a major snowfall. In mid-Jan after going through 7-8, VA had a major snow and w-NC had a big ice storm. Maybe we can get a little better path through 8-1-2 in February and get 1 more chance at another SE/MA event. Atleast that's what I am hoping for. I do think we get another 10-14 day window where it's BN in the east.
Coronal hole rotating through over the next couple of days. MJO should get moving again shortly after.
SnowNiner
Member
We want a reeaaall El-nino, not a little sissy El-nino like deees. lol. Kudos to any who gets the reference. We need an actual el-nino that's coupled with the atmosphere and does not stick the mjo in phases 4-6 all winter. I bet some would argue this was not a true el-nino. I actually hope we do get bit stronger one next year.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Have to agree here, I think this intraseasonal push is gonna be the last call for us if we're gonna score again
This EPS projected track is a near perfect one from my perspective, but with GEFS being far different with another mega amplified MJO projection, who knows if the EPS will come close? That sharp left turn on the EPS looks funny. But the mega-ampified MJO GEFS progged for mid-Jan did turn out to be wrong unlike last Jan/Feb.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ehh I don't agree with that necessarily. Winters like 1935-36, 1979-80, & 2003-04 were wannabe El Ninos like this year and were some of the best winters ever in NC. 1935-36 by far & away is the coldest/snowiest, no other winter comes close aside from 1947-48.
Stormlover
Member
No snow this Tuesday..heavy rain next...
So when does our next window for wintry weather start? Seems like the next 2 weeks are a no go. After that?