Kylo
Member
Agreed. I think/hope this is just a response to the slow roll through ph6. Ph7-8 are really good patterns for Feb.
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Agreed. I think/hope this is just a response to the slow roll through ph6. Ph7-8 are really good patterns for Feb.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If only it was January!? ;(
SnowNiner
Member
We've been waiting for the WAR to retrograde over the top all winter. I'm not confident that happens.
Hot off the press from JB:
“Bounce back warmups occur in high amp patterns when the intrusion of strong height falls naturally stimulate a response from ridges, They are not a sign winter is over, as the very pattern that enabled the extreme cold is still there as an underlying cause, GFS likely catching”
Any comments?
Edit: weeklies out shortly
“Bounce back warmups occur in high amp patterns when the intrusion of strong height falls naturally stimulate a response from ridges, They are not a sign winter is over, as the very pattern that enabled the extreme cold is still there as an underlying cause, GFS likely catching”
Any comments?
Edit: weeklies out shortly
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't look now but the ECMWF tries to develop a subtropical cyclone in the southwestern Atlantic around day 6.
Easy to spot the shallow warm core here on the model's 850 hPa temp field which is almost directly superimposed underneath the moderate-deep convection.
Already time to crank up the hurricane season thread? Lol.
Easy to spot the shallow warm core here on the model's 850 hPa temp field which is almost directly superimposed underneath the moderate-deep convection.
Already time to crank up the hurricane season thread? Lol.
Storm5
Member
I am sure this week three will verify
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I am sure this week three will verify
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That's not just the week 3 forecast, that's the difference of this week 3 forecast vs the previous run for the same time period, it's about 4-5F warmer than the last run. OOF
Yes.Maggie will cover the ground. cataloochie will get easy 2-4”
Jessy89
Member
Thank you. Got tired of seeing no snow at home. So packed the kids up brought them up here to hopefully see a good snow
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Jealous. Breathe it in! Eat some pancakes at Joey’s for me
Jessy89
Member
Oh we love that place! Eat there every time we come up
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So who won the Weeklies bet?
I haven’t seen them yet, but I know you’re typically the perennial betting favorite for this just like you are for guessing the Dow open.
Meanwhile, check out the 18Z GEFS: SE torch is already DEAD on 2/11 followed by solid cold/+PNA/strong Greenland Block along with subtropical moisture in the area. To those thinking winter is about to be done after the next few days, think again!
pcbjr
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
So maybe JB was right about something? I know he over hypes the cold but he is more knowledgeable then 100% of the people on this site.
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pcbjr
Member
Huh?
No offense to our friend SoutheastRidge, who we all love, but the SE Ridge is killed by then. This all would be just in time for prime time SE snow climo, especially during El Niño.
Shawn and rolltide win today’s Euro weeklies contest.Congratulations, they win a trip to the ECMWF HQ to see a future version of the weeklies being released before the rest of the world gets to see them!
The weeklies came in about normal for all of weeks 3-6, which means most weeks were warmer than the prior run. But here’s the good news.
We toss? Why? 1. They come out at Happy Hour and this is an extension of the SouthernWx Happy Hour GFS toss rule.
2. They’re out of date because the Weeklies are based on the 0Z EPS. We already know that the end of week 2 on the 12Z EPS was significantly better than the 0Z EPS in the Pacific. Furthermore, the 18Z GEFS late week 2 was much better than prior GEFS runs.
So, conclusion: today’s weeklies are an obvious toss.
The weeklies came in about normal for all of weeks 3-6, which means most weeks were warmer than the prior run. But here’s the good news.
We toss? Why? 1. They come out at Happy Hour and this is an extension of the SouthernWx Happy Hour GFS toss rule.
2. They’re out of date because the Weeklies are based on the 0Z EPS. We already know that the end of week 2 on the 12Z EPS was significantly better than the 0Z EPS in the Pacific. Furthermore, the 18Z GEFS late week 2 was much better than prior GEFS runs.
So, conclusion: today’s weeklies are an obvious toss.
Kylo
Member
Can’t unsee this.
NCSNOW
Member
No doubt, and im still hopefull. But the pattern repetition weve had since mid Dec leades me to beleive mid feb re shuffle may yield same results. Well see. I just look at models for storms now, through chasing patterns 10+ days out once feb rolls around
Kylo
Member
Weeklies
Haha I’m as wrong as it get me with this stuff! Good news about the 18z gefs!
Turn it off.
NCSNOW
Member
Ive expierenced crap patterns all winter way worse than this one and hit the lotto late season. 1993, 2004, 2013( beleive that was the year) and a few others come to mind. But Im just wondering if ive used up all my credit and it needs time to rebuild. Ive got my biggest storms post Feb28th. 2002 had 17, 1993 was in cullowhee for those 15. The late season storms are eitheir historic or nada. My biggest displeasure is they melt away the next day.
This looks good to me:
As a matter of fact, I might be forced to use the word “epic”, stopping just short of Biblical or deathly amazing.
olhausen
Member
Is that good or bad? Up here feb 16th- March 5th 2015 had epic cold and snow for February or any winter month for that matter. But I’ve also heard people further south missed out so it depends on where you lived.
pcbjr
Member
Epic and Biblical ... as does this (by all means though, forget it's the end of the run) ...
We had a small snow event in janurary 2015 and then had a 8-9 inches in February. So good for mby.
SnowNiner
Member
The weeklies progression actually looks right to me. Finally they're realistic imo. I'm sure the se ridge would leave and the pna would return right in time for March. Smh.
And RC, I'm not used to seeing you this optimistic and positive. You're freakin me out man! Cut it out! Lol.
I go where the data leads, baby! So far this winter, I have been optimistic about eventually getting into a colder and more favorable pattern, while concurrently being pessimistic about individual storm threats. The result of my optimism has yet to match the accuracy of my pessimism. Hopefully, that will soon change.
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SnowNiner
Member
If the gefs looks the same or similar a week from now I'll be right there with you! Be nice to get at least half of February favorable. However I doubt it'll last till tomorrow morning. I'm embittered!
Ha I’d be willing to bet that in a week they will look similar to the way they do today. Softball pitch alert for @Tarheel1
MichaelJ
Member
Back before Christmas, I remarked that the EURO weeklies were calling for warmer than normal for the first third to one half on January and was told "pay no attention to the weeklies cause they are trash". I did it because everyone was touting the wonderful January coming up (according to what the models were showing just prior to that time ) and I just wanted to caution that this was the first warning shot fired by the EURO or ANY OTHER MODEL that we might have a different result than what we could get. Now the reverse is true the EURO weeklies are showing warm or normal for the SE but this should also be considered only after it has occurred. Will it? Beats me but I won't count any monthly model projection coming out for February, good or bad
I am honestly happy to be leaving this polar vortex pattern, it gets cold but you usually only get these piddly storms like we will have on Tuesday, or it is very hard to time a short wave that doesn’t just get squashed. This pattern gives you a chance but as we have seen you often just get “teased” by the models over and over. Give me a better split flow pattern where storms have a better chance to amplify any day of the winter. I think by the second week in February a more productive flow over North America will give better odds for a big storm. At this point in my life I like any snow, but really yearn for that “big dog” to come around!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I remember getting into arguments w/ professional mets on this cold shot over the upper midwest trying to explain that the Euro may not have been overdone here, guess that apparently fell on deaf ears.
Clearly the Euro was not overdone.
Clearly the Euro was not overdone.