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Pattern Fabulous February

whatalife said:
18z GEFS tries to give a little hope for next weekend for a possible overrunning event for many on the board.


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Who’s would be at play for such a scenario?


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The last 48 hours or so of ensemble consensus have shown a decided warming trend for the SE US in week 2. I sure hope this is a reversable hiccup! Actually, I think it will reverse. At least today's 18Z GEFS was a tiny bit better.

And what's with today's 0Z GEFS AO and MJO forecats? Yuck! Was the GEFS drunk? It and the EPS both forecasting phase 7 week 2 but the GEFS has a very strong amp and the EPS has a very weak one. Talk about model consensus. GEFS has been wildly jumping around from day to day vs the steadier EPS though even it has been delaying falling back to the COD. Just a few days ago, GEFS was predicting it curling back into phase 6 inside COD!!
 
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whatalife said:
18z GEFS tries to give a little hope for next weekend for a possible overrunning event for many on the board.
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How about Greenville sc
 
GaWx said:
The last 48 hours or so have shown a decided warming trend for the SE US in week 2. I sure hope this is a reversable hiccup!

And what's with today's 0Z GEFS AO and MJO forecats? Yuck! Was the GEFS drunk? It and the EPS both forecasting phase 7 week 2 but the GEFS has a very strong amp and the EPS has a very weak one. Talk about model consensus. GEFS has been wildly jumping around from day to day vs the steadier EPS though even it has been delaying falling back to the COD. Just a few days ago, GEFS was predicting it curling back into phase 6 inside COD!!
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Gawx, do we hope the eps pans out with the mjo progression at this point?
 
I've been seeing something in that time period on the ensembles the last few runs, and something has popped up occasionally on OP models (not to mention that Euro run...lmao). It might be turning into better score then or no dice this winter, it's still up in the air if whether it's a week or so moderation period or longer, but I don't think you can pay attention to the weeklies as they've been bad this year.
 
As long as there is a reestablishment of the +PNA during prime (based on history) deep SE snowstorm “season” in mid-Feb (2nd to 3rd weeks), I’ll accept a temporary -PNA before that without complaint.
 
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