• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

I hate to be that guy and while I don’t think this will be an extended torch it is what it is. Western ridge will go back up some time around the 2nd or 3rd week in February..not that it has helped us at all anyway
9AD73294-25D5-4FC6-BA21-35C3AC015C5B.png
 
Yep, if I’m not mistaken is that a 50/50 low at the very top right of the map Webb? Also i think already that this storm would have more qpf due to it being likely more southern stream and we know how the southern stream has been
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, if I’m not mistaken is that a 50/50 low at the very top right of the map Webb? Also i think already that this storm would have more qpf due to it being likely more southern stream and we know how the southern stream has been
Click to expand...

Yes, we have a deep vortex in that spot, the wave over the Lakes squashes the wave as it emerges from the southern plains and northern Gulf. We either want this wave to slow down & dig southwestward, have a stronger/slower southern wave to work w/ from the beginning or for this Lakes s/w to get out of the way quicker. The current look verbatim is the worst timing-wise between these two features but we have a little over a week to figure this out.
 
High getting weaker and still suppressed! Was 1040+ yesterday! 4D3A7C51-C2B5-4642-BDB2-D21FD5FE3743.png
 
c42c737646f10b2999fc95d71bb226be.jpg


What are the chances this trends northwest. Seems like most people most realistic chance


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Some of the GEFS members are trying to give it a whirl before we really moderate for the first of the month. It's a mixed bag. (edit: I'd say 10 of 20 try)
 
Looking longer range, I get the feeling the next 2 weeks or so are it for this winter - seems milder 240+ hrs out on ensembles
 
ajr said:
Looking longer range, I get the feeling the next 2 weeks or so are it for this winter - seems milder 240+ hrs out on ensembles
Click to expand...

We're punting for a while after there possibly being a chance early in the month. Question is if we can get things to reload after a week or if the pacific jet wakes up and blasts all of the cold air out of the US again. If we can get to 6-7-8 before the MJO stalls (probably more like 6-7), the next shot will be when we get the response to that in 2 weeks. If we can't and/or the pacific jet does it's thing, turn out the lights for most of us.
 
I expect the cold pattern to last into mid March with perhaps a 7 day period of normal temps being the only time we won't be below normal compared to the averages. After March 1st it will be much tougher for areas of Ga and even SC to cash in as the averages shoot up pretty quick in late Feb. In NC and TN (and parts of NW SC) however snow is very possible into mid or late March. I would show the EPS weeklies for the next 6 weeks to verify this but can't because it is a pay site, maybe next week.
 
The weeklies weeks 2-4, have been looking great, for the last 2-4 weeks, and not really panned out!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top