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Pattern Fabulous February

Rain Cold said:
I definitely see some strong warm shots showing up in the long range, but I'm not really concerned about a warm pattern locking in for the SE. I don't think the backloaded consistent cold pattern has much of a chance either. It's probably going to be variable, averaging out within a degree or two of normal from here on out. We'll still have a shot at another winter storm or two before all is said and done.
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Now that its almost Feb1st, that's all that matters. I love long sustained Cold and don't care if its dry or not. However thats not gonna happen this year as we close out the last month of met winter. Also by Feb 1st I realize winter will start waning now on a daily basis. I can already tell when I get home in evenings last week it wasn't quite yet pitch black dark. If we could only get summer to come and go as fast as winter seems to. Summer always gets going a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule and seems to hang around an extra couple of weeks on the tail end.
 
NCSNOW said:
Now that its almost Feb1st, that's all that matters. I love long sustained Cold and don't care if its dry or not. However thats not gonna happen this year as we close out the last month of met winter. Also by Feb 1st I realize winter will start waning now on a daily basis. I can already tell when I get home in evenings last week it wasn't quite yet pitch black dark. If we could only get summer to come and go as fast as winter seems to. Summer always gets going a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule and seems to hang around an extra couple of weeks on the tail end.
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We could still have close to 3 weeks of sustained cold in Feb. It is too early to make that call.
 
NCSNOW said:
Now that its almost Feb1st, that's all that matters. I love long sustained Cold and don't care if its dry or not. However thats not gonna happen this year as we close out the last month of met winter. Also by Feb 1st I realize winter will start waning now on a daily basis. I can already tell when I get home in evenings last week it wasn't quite yet pitch black dark. If we could only get summer to come and go as fast as winter seems to. Summer always gets going a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule and seems to hang around an extra couple of weeks on the tail end.
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If you remember last year we got cold to late. We still have plenty of time as I am sure something will pop up between Feb 10th and 20th. Even 20th thru end of month. We have plowed many times in between those dates.
 
GaWx said:
We could still have close to 3 weeks of sustained cold in Feb. It is too early to make that call.
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I agree that we could, but I don't think we will. But we don't need it in order to snow. Don't get me wrong, though. I'd much rather have sustained cold than not.
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree that we could, but I don't think we will. But we don't need it in order to snow. Don't get me wrong, though. I'd much rather have sustained cold than not.
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I think what's more of the concern is the overall H5 setup. If we get an unfavorable setup such as a GOA low or the SER coming in and not moving, we can punt at least that week it dominates. Since things aren't showing any sticking pattern in the LR then maybe we could get lucky and see something. I just hope we don't get another false hope storm or just too warm event.
 
All aboard!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree that we could, but I don't think we will. But we don't need it in order to snow. Don't get me wrong, though. I'd much rather have sustained cold than not.
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Agreed. If I had to bet, we've lost the +PNA for the winter. Tropical forcing is all kinds of messed up and has been all winter. I don't see that changing. We may finally get a stout -NAO to show up to keep us in the game a couple more times. My optimism however for the rest of the winter is gone.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Is this a cold look? smh
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Not really, but check this out:

Here is today's 12z FV-3 (top) and yesterday's 18z FV-3 (bottom). If you want southern sliders and overrunning events in the south and southeast, you need an upper level pattern that evolves similar to this, especially the 18z. Heights press south, due to blocking. You don't have a big wound up PV/cold center (particularly on the 18z). Cold highs move across the northern tier instead of dropping into the SE or due south into TX. Waves can move across the southern tier without getting too wound up and cutting. Great pattern shown on the 18z, especially, although the 12z isn't all that far off. In fact, the last several runs of the FV-3 have evolved similarly near the end. This doesn't mean that we'll go this way, but it should offer hope that we have plenty of cold nearby to tap. The bottom line is, whatever warm pattern we get shouldn't have a lot of staying power, nor should it be hard to work out of.

12z.png

18.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I thought we learned a lesson too about cold fronts showing snow...
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That lesson won’t be learned until tomorrow afternoon, when Al/GA peeps are looking at bare ground! Some people are visual learners! LMAO
 
Rain Cold said:
Not really, but check this out:

Here is today's 12z FV-3 (top) and yesterday's 18z FV-3 (bottom). If you want southern sliders and overrunning events in the south and southeast, you need an upper level pattern that evolves similar to this, especially the 18z. Heights press south, due to blocking. You don't have a big wound up PV/cold center (particularly on the 18z). Cold highs move across the northern tier instead of dropping into the SE or due south into TX. Waves can move across the southern tier without getting too wound up and cutting. Great pattern shown on the 18z, especially, although the 12z isn't all that far off. In fact, the last several runs of the FV-3 have evolved similarly near the end. This doesn't mean that we'll go this way, but it should offer hope that we have plenty of cold nearby to tap. The bottom line is, whatever warm pattern we get shouldn't have a lot of staying power, nor should it be hard to work out of.

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Somebody needs to smack the pizzert out of your mouth! Showing 384 GFS maps!!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLES..when they show cold it’s all we’ve got and when they show heat it’s all we’ve got
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Ensembles at 384 are almost as useless as Ops at 384. At least the Ops carry the benefit of giving you a nice 6 sd fantasy block, a once-in-a-100-year PV intrusion into the deep south, or a monster SE blizzard on occasion.
 
Rain Cold said:
Ensembles at 384 are almost as useless as Ops at 384. At least the Ops carry the benefit of giving you a nice 6 sd fantasy block, a once-in-a-100-year PV intrusion into the deep south, or a monster SE blizzard on occasion.
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12z GFS gave me mid 70’s at 198 lol
 
Anyone think I’ll see a couple inches of snow. If I spend the night in Maggie valley tonight?


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Any prediction for the Euro weeklies? The countdown has started and they'll be released in less than 2.5 hours.
 
GaWx said:
Any prediction for the Euro weeklies? The countdown has started and they'll be released in less than 2.5 hours.
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Weeks 3-6 will be the coldest and snowiest we have ever seen! And they will look that way next run, then the run after that, until April and we will never see the dream pattern materialize, unless your dream pattern is spring or summer
 
GaWx said:
Any prediction for the Euro weeklies? The countdown has started and they'll be released in less than 2.5 hours.
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A middle ground between torchy and colder. Basically a stalemate and more of the wait and see thing. lol
 
All out reversal torch zonal southeast ridge raging +epoalnaowpo.
 
GaWx said:
Any prediction for the Euro weeklies? The countdown has started and they'll be released in less than 2.5 hours.
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Warmer for the first week beyond what we already know from the EPS. About the same as the last time for the weeks after that week.
 
Though the SE ridge is stubborn as a mule and there's plenty of SE torch on it as a result, the 12Z EPS actually looks better Pacific-wise on many days vs the 0Z. The Plains states are significantly colder vs the 0Z 2/2 to the end of the run. The 348 hour map looks markedly better than the 0Z's 360. My point is that it wouldn't take too much of a shift from the 12Z EPS to bring back cold to the SE.
 
GaWx said:
Though the SE ridge is stubborn as a mule and there's plenty of SE torch on it as a result, the 12Z EPS actually looks better Pacific-wise on many days vs the 0Z. The Plains states are significantly colder vs the 0Z 2/2 to the end of the run. The 348 hour map looks markedly better than the 0Z's 360. My point is that it wouldn't take too much of a shift from the 12Z EPS to bring back cold to the SE.
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It was a better run, has the -EPO most of the run was some blocking. And with cold dumped into the conus wouldn't take to much to give chances.

14-km EPS Global United States 5-d Avg T2M Anom [C] 360.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Why is the recent one better? Not wambulancing, I just don't see much difference. The WAR and SE ridge is a tad stronger and maybe a bit more ridging up over Alaska. Other than that seem very crappy in the pacific and north atlantic.
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I know you're not asking about today's 12Z. but the 12Z is clearly the best of the 3 late in the run in the Pacific as Kylo just commented on.
#-EPO. Now if would also shift to a +PNA, we should really be in business again.
 
Watch for the two areas of blocking to move north and connect over the top, forcing the trough out west to come east and southeast. The trough over HI comes east and the low NW of the Aleutians moves down into proper position. Great pattern coming.

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Rain Cold said:
Watch for the two areas of blocking to move north and connect over the top, forcing the trough out west to come east and southeast. The trough over HI comes east and the low NW of the Aleutians moves down into proper position. Great pattern coming.

View attachment 14140
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This year has a 2015 feel to it.
 
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