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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
And there it is folks. that high to the north means business! This is what could happen around 2/1-3. The ZR on this is major. That isn't snow in SE GA/coastal SC. That is mainly ZR I think..
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You are correct:
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whatalife said:
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Well ----. Lol
 
GaWx said:
And there it is folks. that high to the north means business! This is what could happen around 2/1-3.
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I've learned from many years reading his posts on American WX as well as his current posts on this forum that when "Larry starts crowing get the snow blowers going!" He has an uncanny ability to call out winter storms for the SE well in advance based on his vast knowledge of weather history for this area. He has a better than average track record for storms in the 7-10 day range. Not to take anything away from Delta, Webb, 1300m, etc. but for a non-professional, I take extra notice when Larry starts honing in on pattern trends and dates. So, Larry let us know when you officially go into "crowing mode!" Please move to banter if needed.
 
Fyi, the GFS is consistently trending southward with the big PV lobe later next week which favors even colder air getting closer to the SE US. Having some snow cover on the ground from the preceding arctic front (or coastal low if you're in eastern NC) would certainly help produce bitterly cold, possibly record breaking cold temperatures if this trend were to continue.

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I've got a very weird feeling with this early February thing that if we see it work it's going to trend a bit north and wind up being an ice storm for areas in East Central Georgia through the midlands. Just a gut feeling really, would be happy to be wrong but we'll see, don't think we've really had any trends though except storms appearing off and on, but this period does seem to have some legs as a pattern breakdown storm.

Larry's already tried to make a call btw this winter, hopefully this call brings it.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I've got a very weird feeling with this early February thing that if we see it work it's going to trend a bit north and wind up being an ice storm for areas in East Central Georgia through the midlands. Just a gut feeling really, would be happy to be wrong but we'll see, don't think we've really had any trends though except storms appearing off and on, but this period does seem to have some legs as a pattern breakdown storm.

Larry's already tried to make a call btw this winter, hopefully this call brings it.
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I don't know if there were to be something major the rest of winter for much of the forum that it would be during this period. Climo/history peak has actually been a bit further into Feb than this fwiw. But I do know that this high is progged to have the coldest temps in Chicago and good chuck of the Midwest in many years by a good margin and that it obviously will very likely be the coldest of the entire winter. When there is an a very rare extremely cold Midwest high that doesn't plunge down into the SE with bitter and dry NW winds but instead sort of skims the SE with the bottom of the very cold via cold enough for trouble NE winds/wedge, that's a recipe for a potential rare deep SE major wintry event including major ZR. That being said, the odds are high nothing like this will be on the next run.
 
GaWx said:
I don't know if there were to be something major the rest of winter for much of the forum that it would be during this period. Climo/history peak has actually been a bit further into Feb than this fwiw. But I do know that this high is progged to have the coldest temps in Chicago and good chuck of the Midwest in many years by a good margin and that it obviously will very likely be the coldest of the entire winter. When there is an a very rare extremely cold Midwest high that doesn't plunge down into the SE with bitter and dry NW winds but instead sort of skims the SE with the bottom of the very cold via cold enough for trouble NE winds/wedge, that's a recipe for a potential rare deep SE major wintry event including major ZR. That being said, the odds are high nothing like this will be on the next run.
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In other words, about a "1" on the crow meter! Don't worry, Larry...if we have to wait until later in the month for peak climo to get a deep south snow or ice event, it'll be worth it!
 
Cute little wave trying to get its act together in the northern Gulf on this GFS run by the 31st, our primary wave that could trigger an overrunning event in the Feb 1-3 timeframe is entering stage left as the big cold vortex departs. It really is a classic setup for a nice southern US event in a general sense, just need to get the pieces in the right places at the right time.


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Webberweather53 said:
Cute little wave trying to get its act together in the northern Gulf on this GFS run by the 31st, our primary wave that could trigger an overrunning event in the Feb 1-3 timeframe is entering stage left as the big cold vortex departs. It really is a classic setup for a nice southern US event in a general sense, just need to get the pieces in the right places at the right time.


View attachment 13325
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Lots of moisture pooling along the old front on the FV3. Just need the wave.

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GaWx & Stormsfury are really good when it comes to rare deep south events in the medium-long term. If you're around the CAE and South, pay close attention to their posts for sure. They know this area well.
 
You really got to like this look, especially if your east of the apps, nice 50/50 low feature, ensembles continue to hint at some storm late next week during this time, what a good look that is, also with that western ridge, I would not be surprised if there is a winter storm at this timeframe then things switch back to average, but this setup kinda resembles the first week of December at H56EABBB15-D704-442A-9146-9A62F1910943.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I've got a very weird feeling with this early February thing that if we see it work it's going to trend a bit north and wind up being an ice storm for areas in East Central Georgia through the midlands. Just a gut feeling really, would be happy to be wrong but we'll see, don't think we've really had any trends though except storms appearing off and on, but this period does seem to have some legs as a pattern breakdown storm.

Larry's already tried to make a call btw this winter, hopefully this call brings it.
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Could be my fabled sleet storm :) Doesn't have to be zr.
 
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