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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
Not that much of drop at ATL. And don’t forget 2/25/1914, which gave major wintry all the way down here and have middle GA 2nf heaviest snow in record!
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The late February 1914 storm was arguably one of the all time greats in parts of east-central SC until the Feb 1973 storm came along. 1913-14 is the quintessential definition of a backloaded El Nino winter, the hits kept just coming one after another from mid February right on into mid-late March.

February 13-15 1914 NC Snowmap.png
February 25-26 1914 NC Snowmap.png

March 11-12 1914 NC Snowmap.png
March 20-21 1914 NC Snowmap.png
March 22-23 1914 NC Snowmap.png
 
GaWx said:
I’ve looked at wintry climo frequency for CAE, CHS, JAX, GNV, and ATL and found a winter max AFTER the first week in Feb and in weeks 2 & 3 for some reason. I don’t know the reason! ATL even had a good bit more in week 4 than week 1!
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oddly its our best month too, including the biggest snowstorm on record

January hasn't even been snowy here in like 20 years but numerous February's have *shrugs*

oddly the biggest snowstorm since I've been here was March 4-5...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
With an average high not far from 60, it honestly amazes me it snows at all in February in Atlanta.
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Avg ATL high doesn’t get above mid 50s til after midmonth. Also, SAV has had their 2nd biggest snow ever and it was in early March, when average high is already up to high 60s! Furthermore, GNV, FL has had a trace of wintry as late as late March, when their normal high is way up to mid 70s! SAV’s coldest midwinter avg high is near 60 and we get measurable snow about once every 7 years on average.
 
For those starting to think a little ahead towards the winter of 2019-20 here comes another westerly wind burst (WWB) that'll help set the base state of the Equatorial Pacific in the spring predictability barrier, possibly making the Pacific more apt to produce a legitimate El Nino later this year.
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Webberweather53 said:
For those starting to think a little ahead towards the winter of 2019-20 here comes another westerly wind burst (WWB) that'll help set the base state of the Equatorial Pacific in the spring predictability barrier, possibly making the Pacific more apt to produce a legitimate El Nino later this year.
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Madness starts already. Lol
 
CMC was a blockbuster event! Incredible low track for the heart of winter. Just impeccable. Stellar in all honesty...fml673B6614-ECD8-4B76-ACC3-F03263C99E62.png
 
CMC energy comes in HOT!
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Then the WAR failboat launches
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Sometimes it just doesn’t want to snow
 
looking at MSLP 00z Euro has a completely different look from 12z at the start of February..shocker..all bad for eastern areas
 
What a horrible 6z GEFS run. After February 3, the PV retreats to central Canada toward the pole and ridging envelopes the entire conus. We're probably done if that transpires. Anybody got the EPS? Please tell me they don't ridge up the whole US like this. I'm telling ya, I think the WAR is just not going away this winter, no matter what the weeklies say.

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SnowNiner said:
What a horrible 6z GEFS run. After February 3, the PV retreats to central Canada toward the pole and ridging envelopes the entire conus. We're probably done if that transpires. Anybody got the EPS? Please tell me they don't ridge up the whole US like this. I'm telling ya, I think the WAR is just not going away this winter, no matter what the weeklies say.

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It's not as bad as it seems. We could have a huge SER developing. There is still evidence of a ridge out west and a trough in the east, so it could trend colder as time passes.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks a little warm for SC?
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Looks cold enough now. When whatever happens to get it unsuppressed and trend NW takes place, at that time, who knows? Makes sense, this is a bit of a tail end of a pattern change/relax period where the PV retreats.

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You can’t make this sh** up. In your worst nightmare you couldn’t envision something this cruel
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At least the storm is there on about all of the models. With the pattern relaxing at this point, you would think that this will probably trend NW with time.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
So much potential with this one. FV3 tried. Game on goobers
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The models are all over the place for 2/1-2 and are also jumping around from run to run. But one thing is pretty much deifinite: that 1040ish surface high in the Midwest on 2/1 means business as it is forecast to bring record cold to Chicago/Midwest. IF that high's low level cold gets tapped via CAD by any, we could be looking at a major ZR/IP for the SE US IF a weak low really does form well south in the Gulf. This is uncommonly frigid air. Conctrast this to the 1/27 low that has no surface high nearby/not much cold air to tap from the Arctic.
 
GaWx said:
The models are all over the place for 2/1-2 and are also jumping around from run to run. But one thing is pretty much deifinite: that 1040ish surface high in the Midwest on 2/1 means business as it is forecast to bring record cold to Chicago/Midwest. IF that high's low level cold gets tapped via CAD by any, we could be looking at a major ZR/IP for the SE US IF a weak low really does form well south in the Gulf. This is uncommonly frigid air. Conctrast this to the 1/27 low that has no surface high nearby/not much cold air to tap from the Arctic.
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I'm not great at reading ensembles, but this looks like the ensembles gave a couple hits for this right? The mean doesn't shown any storm in the gulf yet so I don't know how strong a signal that is or not. With no mean pressure center where we want it probably not right now.

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I got a feeling the Euro is about to show the storm for next weekend also. Just go ahead and open up the thread... Lol
 
GaWx said:
The models are all over the place for 2/1-2 and are also jumping around from run to run. But one thing is pretty much deifinite: that 1040ish surface high in the Midwest on 2/1 means business as it is forecast to bring record cold to Chicago/Midwest. IF that high's low level cold gets tapped via CAD by any, we could be looking at a major ZR/IP for the SE US IF a weak low really does form well south in the Gulf. This is uncommonly frigid air. Conctrast this to the 1/27 low that has no surface high nearby/not much cold air to tap from the Arctic.
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To me, that stuff underneath has way more potential than expecting anything from a clipper below Gainesville, lol. Now were the two to meet up, there's where we get a good storm. It's still over a week out, so things could jell. But I never hold my breath for a clipper...learned that lesson long, long ago, just as I learned cold air in N Ga. and rain in south Ga can lead to wonderful things above Macon, lol.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Wow, Euro giving NC back to back storms with a couple of inches each for central NC! Great to see the Euro getting on board.
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Arguably there's a chance for back to back to back storms if our coastal low pans out too. Legitimate possibility for 3 winter storms in the span of a week in/around NC
 
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