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Pattern Fabulous February

I want to believe it, but after what the models showed here in the long range for here this weekend and the middle of next week versus what they show now, it is hard to get too excited.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I want to believe it, but after what the models showed here in the long range for here this weekend and the middle of next week versus what they show now, it is hard to get too excited.
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Brick, what has already happened is largely irrelevant. Why? IF the +PNA/-EPO/-AO/Greenland Block/cold MJO pattern shown on the EPS in the 11-15 and going forward were to verify, you'd have a perfect pattern just in time for peak El Nino climo. What more could you ask for to at least give you a good opportunity? That doesn't mean it will happen obviously. But again, you couldn't ask for a much better pattern.

Reminder: weeklies out within an hour though I may not see them for 2 hours+.

Edit: Note that today's GEFS based PNA went up pretty sharply from recent days' forecasts, which had it going down to neutral. This is what we want to see. The AO remains strongly negative for most of the 2 weeks. The NAO remains neutral but a nice Greenland Block is progged.
 
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GaWx said:
Brick, what has already happened is largely irrelevant. Why? IF the +PNA/-EPO/-AO/Greenland Block/cold MJO pattern shown on the EPS in the 11-15 and going forward were to verify, you'd have a perfect pattern just in time for peak El Nino climo. What more could you ask for to at least give you a good opportunity? That doesn't mean it will happen obviously. But again, you couldn't ask for a much better pattern.

Reminder: weeklies out within an hour though I may not see them for 2 hours+.

Edit: Note that today's GEFS based PNA went up pretty sharply from recent days' forecasts, which had it going down to neutral. This is what we want to see. The AO remains strongly negative for most of the 2 weeks. The NAO remains neutral but a nice Greenland Block is progged.
Click to expand...
Lovin' every word you post, Larry ... no wading through the weeds at ant-level ... ;)
 
Here's a set of models, essentially from the same source, covering pretty much the same temporal span ... and somewhere in there is a lesson learned long ago ... but that's beside the point ...
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif


610temp.new.gif

814temp.new.gif
 
GaWx said:
Brick, what has already happened is largely irrelevant. Why? IF the +PNA/-EPO/-AO/Greenland Block/cold MJO pattern shown on the EPS in the 11-15 and going forward were to verify, you'd have a perfect pattern just in time for peak El Nino climo. What more could you ask for to at least give you a good opportunity? That doesn't mean it will happen obviously. But again, you couldn't ask for a much better pattern.

Reminder: weeklies out within an hour though I may not see them for 2 hours+.

Edit: Note that today's GEFS based PNA went up pretty sharply from recent days' forecasts, which had it going down to neutral. This is what we want to see. The AO remains strongly negative for most of the 2 weeks. The NAO remains neutral but a nice Greenland Block is progged.
Click to expand...

I just looked at the weeklies and they're pretty awesome btw. This huge vortex over eastern North America next week triggers a downstream over the North Atlantic that reaches Europe later in Week 2 and pops a ridge over Scandinavia that retrogrades towards Greenland in weeks 3-4, at least we have Pacific subseasonal forcing to corroborate it this time.
 
GaWx said:
Brick, what has already happened is largely irrelevant. Why? IF the +PNA/-EPO/-AO/Greenland Block/cold MJO pattern shown on the EPS in the 11-15 and going forward were to verify, you'd have a perfect pattern just in time for peak El Nino climo. What more could you ask for to at least give you a good opportunity? That doesn't mean it will happen obviously. But again, you couldn't ask for a much better pattern.

Reminder: weeklies out within an hour though I may not see them for 2 hours+.

Edit: Note that today's GEFS based PNA went up pretty sharply from recent days' forecasts, which had it going down to neutral. This is what we want to see. The AO remains strongly negative for most of the 2 weeks. The NAO remains neutral but a nice Greenland Block is progged.
Click to expand...
Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 5.34.56 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 5.35.05 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 5.35.13 PM.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
I want to believe it, but after what the models showed here in the long range for here this weekend and the middle of next week versus what they show now, it is hard to get too excited.
Click to expand...
The only consistent outcome is no snow. We've seen dozens of potential storms in the 7-10 day range but zero actual storms for most of the board. The clock is ticking and my mower blades need sharpening.
 
18z gfs is the first run that didn't destroy the vortex in SE canada and evacuate it into NW canada. The eps looks a little more similar. We may have some warm days in the first afternoon of feb but I'm not sure we are going to have a locked warm period

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Days 21-25 (Feb 14-18) were particularly interesting to me on the weeklies because after a relaxation of the cold just before then, the cold comes back pretty solidly along with near normal precip. Being that this is the climo peak for especially deep SE snowstorms, this bodes well for @Stormsfury and others for POTENTIAL. Even @pcbjr shouid keep one eye on this period just in case. And not to forget about @Brick Tamland, he should have his hopes up to some extent for a possibility.
 
GaWx said:
Days 21-25 (Feb 14-18) were particularly interesting to me on the weeklies because after a relaxation of the cold just before then, the cold comes back pretty solidly along with near normal precip. Being that this is the climo peak for especially deep SE snowstorms, this bodes well for @Stormsfury and others for POTENTIAL. Even @pcbjr shouid keep one eye on this period just in case. And not to forget about @Brick Tamland, he should have his hopes up to some extent for a possibility.
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I'm guessing by that we won't have as large of a chance up here in ATL and even upstate SC? Maybe if we get a decent enough system it could affect us too? Probably best to wait and see if anything shows up when we get there.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm guessing by that we won't have as large of a chance up here in ATL and even upstate SC? Maybe if we get a decent enough system it could affect us too? Probably best to wait and see if anything shows up when we get there.
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It really bodes well for all speculationwise/potential. Yeah, we’re taking days 21-25, which is still way out there. But fwiw, it hinted that there could be a pretty far south Miller A.
 
GaWx said:
Days 21-25 (Feb 14-18) were particularly interesting to me on the weeklies because after a relaxation of the cold just before then, the cold comes back pretty solidly along with near normal precip. Being that this is the climo peak for especially deep SE snowstorms, this bodes well for @Stormsfury and others for POTENTIAL. Even @pcbjr shouid keep one eye on this period just in case. And not to forget about @Brick Tamland, he should have his hopes up to some extent for a possibility.
Click to expand...

Yep! Usually the climo in general for the number of storms starts to come down after the beginning of February but the percentage of storms that are big dogs increases the deeper we get into February and thru early March.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep! Usually the climo in general for the number of storms starts to come down after the beginning of February but the percentage of storms that are big dogs increases the deeper we get into February and thru early March.
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I’ve looked at wintry climo frequency for CAE, CHS, JAX, GNV, and ATL and found a winter max AFTER the first week in Feb and in weeks 2 & 3 for some reason. I don’t know the reason! ATL even had a good bit more in week 4 than week 1!
 
GaWx said:
I’ve looked at wintry climo frequency for CAE, CHS, JAX, GNV, and ATL and found a winter max AFTER the first week in Feb and in weeks 2 & 3 for some reason. I don’t know the reason!
Click to expand...
I bet wintry climo dramatically drops off in week 4 of Feb !
 
GaWx said:
I’ve looked at wintry climo frequency for CAE, CHS, JAX, GNV, and ATL and found a winter max AFTER the first week in Feb and in weeks 2 & 3 for some reason. I don’t know the reason! ATL even had a good bit more in week 4 than week 1!
Click to expand...

Almost assuredly it's internal variability, just don't have a large enough sample size of winter storms well south of the I-40 corridor and using a few sparsely scattered observing sites also means you're apt to miss a multitude of minor events that often localize snow amounts between these areas and/or just go flat out unreported. I certainly think there's something physical however to the proportion of bigger storms in the 2nd half of the season, we definitely tend to get more bang for the buck in February & early March when we do score!
 
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