• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

whatalife said:
18z GEFS tries to give a little hope for next weekend for a possible overrunning event for many on the board.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Who’s would be at play for such a scenario?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The last 48 hours or so of ensemble consensus have shown a decided warming trend for the SE US in week 2. I sure hope this is a reversable hiccup! Actually, I think it will reverse. At least today's 18Z GEFS was a tiny bit better.

And what's with today's 0Z GEFS AO and MJO forecats? Yuck! Was the GEFS drunk? It and the EPS both forecasting phase 7 week 2 but the GEFS has a very strong amp and the EPS has a very weak one. Talk about model consensus. GEFS has been wildly jumping around from day to day vs the steadier EPS though even it has been delaying falling back to the COD. Just a few days ago, GEFS was predicting it curling back into phase 6 inside COD!!
 
Last edited:
whatalife said:
18z GEFS tries to give a little hope for next weekend for a possible overrunning event for many on the board.
1e38f960e89a179702fada4da471aae1.jpg
e4ee1af73ede585ba1f5ddd6d23fefbd.jpg
f541ca695d54032c43987cb5257117e6.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
How about Greenville sc
 
GaWx said:
The last 48 hours or so have shown a decided warming trend for the SE US in week 2. I sure hope this is a reversable hiccup!

And what's with today's 0Z GEFS AO and MJO forecats? Yuck! Was the GEFS drunk? It and the EPS both forecasting phase 7 week 2 but the GEFS has a very strong amp and the EPS has a very weak one. Talk about model consensus. GEFS has been wildly jumping around from day to day vs the steadier EPS though even it has been delaying falling back to the COD. Just a few days ago, GEFS was predicting it curling back into phase 6 inside COD!!
Click to expand...

Gawx, do we hope the eps pans out with the mjo progression at this point?
 
I've been seeing something in that time period on the ensembles the last few runs, and something has popped up occasionally on OP models (not to mention that Euro run...lmao). It might be turning into better score then or no dice this winter, it's still up in the air if whether it's a week or so moderation period or longer, but I don't think you can pay attention to the weeklies as they've been bad this year.
 
As long as there is a reestablishment of the +PNA during prime (based on history) deep SE snowstorm “season” in mid-Feb (2nd to 3rd weeks), I’ll accept a temporary -PNA before that without complaint.
 
GaWx said:
Absolutely. Furthermore, hopefully this suckyastic trend to SE ridge will reverse soon.
Click to expand...

For some reason, the people on twitter are very confident on a HLB regime setting up soon. Something to do with AAM descending final SSW.
 
Ah, the classic BBS. My, those days were much easier than this web 2.004389428342.482314 stuff.

Anyways, great to see some kind of ensembles with snow through here soon. Maybe the Euro was onto something. At this point in the Midlands, we'd be happy with a simple 2-4 inch snow event with no temp issues.

Wait. We are Hell. We won't ever have snow again.
 
More GEFS members showed a system for the first of the month, it seemed like it was a tick north, but with the way the GEFS is showing this system, it seems like it's going to be a matter of time before the GFS comes out with something significant. It's already close to showing something I think.

Seems like it's an ice threat though.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
More GEFS members showed a system for the first of the month, it seemed like it was a tick north, but with the way the GEFS is showing this system, it seems like it's going to be a matter of time before the GFS comes out with something significant. It's already close to showing something I think.

Seems like it's an ice threat though.
Click to expand...
OP models are at least in early agreement that the western ridge breaks down and pushes east behind our s/w for this time frame. 850’s are completely eroded. The only thing that could make this work is if the breakdown of the ridge happens slower than modeled and we can hold on by the skin of our teeth. I’m fairly certain that isn’t possible though. And this is all assuming we have a favorable low track (or a low at all) and surface temps that cooperate...woe is me
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
OP models are at least in early agreement that the western ridge breaks down and pushes east behind our s/w for this time frame. 850’s are completely eroded. The only thing that could make this work is if the breakdown of the ridge happens slower than modeled and we can hold on by the skin of our teeth. I’m fairly certain that isn’t possible though. And this is all assuming we have a favorable low track (or a low at all) and surface temps that cooperate...woe is me
Click to expand...
Feb 1-3 timeframe, clipper now!! Winning
 
The 6Z GFS suite and FV3 look like SE ridge dominated dumpster fires 2/3+. Hopefully, this ugly pattern will reverse soon after it starts.
 
Heck if it keeps going like this just as well bring on spring, if I have cold I want snow, no snow I want warm.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top