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Pattern Jammin' January

Just to give an idea of what happened in 2005.

First 3 weeks of Jan were a blowtorch...similar to what models are showing now.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 8.45.47 AM.png

Last 10 days of January cold did return.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 8.41.20 AM.png

Temps moderated for about 3 weeks.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 8.42.06 AM.png


Then cold returned for end of February into most of March.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 8.43.09 AM.png
 
Kylo said:
Just to give an idea of what happened in 2005.

First 3 weeks of Jan were a blowtorch...similar to what models are showing now.

View attachment 9889

Last 10 days of January cold did return.

View attachment 9890

Temps moderated for about 3 weeks.

View attachment 9891


Then cold returned for end of February into most of March.

View attachment 9892
Click to expand...
Good info. It's really hard to put a lot of stock in the mjo forecasts out in the lr, as bad as they've been. Not trying to use the old "models can't be trusted, so throw them out" excuse, but I don't believe any model has been all that stellar with the mjo progs beyond a week or so. All that to say, there's hope that we don't get a 2005 repeat.
 
Triplets Rain Cold !
1e82a0d20145c88cade480b842e345d2.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
Good info. It's really hard to put a lot of stock in the mjo forecasts out in the lr, as bad as they've been. Not trying to use the old "models can't be trusted, so throw them out" excuse, but I don't believe any model has been all that stellar with the mjo progs beyond a week or so. All that to say, there's hope that we don't get a 2005 repeat.
Click to expand...

To be honest, the unknown frustrates me more than anything. If we have a good idea the rest of the winter is going to suck then can move towards acceptance and enjoying the warmth. I found another snake in my yard yesterday...LOL.

Agree the MJO forecasts have been like tracking a belligerent drunk but now that GEFS/EPS agree on the general path it makes it a little more believable.
 
Rain Cold said:
Good info. It's really hard to put a lot of stock in the mjo forecasts out in the lr, as bad as they've been. Not trying to use the old "models can't be trusted, so throw them out" excuse, but I don't believe any model has been all that stellar with the mjo progs beyond a week or so. All that to say, there's hope that we don't get a 2005 repeat.
Click to expand...

Yeah, my understanding is that both models have been trying to kill the pulse prematurely at times recently. There seems to be a consensus though that it's likely to continue strong through phases 8-2. I think the bigger concern is that it flies through 8-2 in a week and a half and we're back to where we started from second week in February and winter's over. Don't know the mechanism that would stop the pulse in the favorable phases.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, my understanding is that both models have been trying to kill the pulse prematurely at times recently. There seems to be a consensus though that it's likely to continue strong through phases 8-2. I think the bigger concern is that it flies through 8-2 in a week and a half and we're back to where we started from second week in February and winter's over. Don't know the mechanism that would stop the pulse in the favorable phases.
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It might fly through. Who knows. But I can't believe winter forecasting is as easy as simply identifying the MJO phase. There surely have to be other things that, at some point, will counter it, even when it is in the warmer phases. Maybe it's the strat warm and its stepdaughters and second cousins. Maybe it's the minus signs in front of the SOI. Maybe it's the extra corona hole rotating around the sun. Maybe it's stronger mountain torching. But I have to think that at some point, something will trump the MJO.
 
Rain Cold said:
It might fly through. Who knows. But I can't believe winter forecasting is as easy as simply identifying the MJO phase. There surely have to be other things that, at some point, will counter it, even when it is in the warmer phases. Maybe it's the strat warm and its stepdaughters and second cousins. Maybe it's the minus signs in front of the SOI. Maybe it's the extra corona hole rotating around the sun. Maybe it's stronger mountain torching. But I have to think that at some point, something will trump the MJO.
Click to expand...

Don’t forget global warming/much warmer than normal Arctic, which continues. Is it possible that this could have more than a 2 or so degree impact in the SE US? I’m not saying it necessarily is and am mostly just having fun with your post, but I’m also throwing it out there for serious discussion. One thing to note is that Jan is about the only month in the US that has hardly warmed to this point for some reason looking at the 30 year average.
 
Rain Cold said:
It might fly through. Who knows. But I can't believe winter forecasting is as easy as simply identifying the MJO phase. There surely have to be other things that, at some point, will counter it, even when it is in the warmer phases. Maybe it's the strat warm and its stepdaughters and second cousins. Maybe it's the minus signs in front of the SOI. Maybe it's the extra corona hole rotating around the sun. Maybe it's stronger mountain torching. But I have to think that at some point, something will trump the MJO.
Click to expand...

With the SOI going negative perhaps the atmosphere starts acting like a nino, and nino climo starts to take over, making it more likely to keep the +PNA/-EPO combo.
 
Hot off the JB press (well from yesterday):

“@BigJoeBastardi
·
22h
Late December Start warm in 65,84,94 followed by severe US winter weather mid Jan into March. Certainly on table this year, Also last nights euro implies Feb may be 1st below ave temp globally since pre super nino. Wild cold develops, NAMER, Europe, much of Asia”

Opinions? Delayed but not denied?? What’s this about first below ave temp globally in Feb???
 
GaWx said:
Hot off the JB press (well from yesterday):

“@BigJoeBastardi
·
22h
Late December Start warm in 65,84,94 followed by severe US winter weather mid Jan into March. Certainly on table this year, Also last nights euro implies Feb may be 1st below ave temp globally since pre super nino. Wild cold develops, NAMER, Europe, much of Asia”

Opinions? Delayed but not denied??
Click to expand...
Hmmm. I dont remember any noteworthy snow or ice in Atlanta in 94.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know what it is, but something about seeing his image makes me want to punch a kitten.
Click to expand...

When have they helped Raleigh's weather? In 2010 we got 8" of snow for the season but we can get 8" of snow without a mSSW. All they seem to do is cause a great big pause in the middle of prime window of already shortened winter months.

Posted on this a few days ago. AO tanked 10 days after but our sensible weather took another 2 weeks to flip. Which shows we still need a favorable pacific/mjo even with a mSSW.

 
GaWx said:
Hot off the JB press (well from yesterday):

“@BigJoeBastardi
·
22h
Late December Start warm in 65,84,94 followed by severe US winter weather mid Jan into March. Certainly on table this year, Also last nights euro implies Feb may be 1st below ave temp globally since pre super nino. Wild cold develops, NAMER, Europe, much of Asia”

Opinions? Delayed but not denied?? What’s this about first below ave temp globally in Feb???
Click to expand...
Anything to keep subscribers coming in and clicks on his sight. He will admit his forecast was a bust, when May rolls around! Until then, he will say “ it’s coming” and throw out a few analogs. Sad
 
Kylo said:
Just to give an idea of what happened in 2005.

First 3 weeks of Jan were a blowtorch...similar to what models are showing now.

View attachment 9889

Last 10 days of January cold did return.

View attachment 9890
Click to expand...

I’m not saying the MJO is necessarily going to track like that. But in case it does, this is from my MJO post of yesterday:
“7. Jan 2005:
Jan 22-5, when the MJO was either inside the circle in 7-8 or barely outside in 8, was -7 in a month that outside of those days was a much warmer +5:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200501.phase.90days.gif”

Also, note that Jan of 2015, which was during another weak El Niño, had something somewhat similar:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201501.phase.90days.gif
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anything to keep subscribers coming in and clicks on his sight. He will admit his forecast was a bust, when May rolls around! Until then, he will say “ it’s coming” and throw out a few analogs. Sad
Click to expand...
He essentially said in a recent video that his entire winter forecast hinges on whether the severe cold arrives in Jan. or not. He's shook. Not as shook today as the other day, but he's still shook...a little.
 
Rain Cold said:
He essentially said in a recent video that his entire winter forecast hinges on whether the severe cold arrives in Jan. or not. He's shook. Not as shook today as the other day, but he's still shook...a little.
Click to expand...

He’s still not going to get his sub -5 for DJF that he has for N GA/E TN and nearby. That would require a turnaround of unheard of epic proportions that has not occurred since records started in the 1870s at least. He should at least go ahead and admit that that won’t happen now.
 
Rain Cold said:
He essentially said in a recent video that his entire winter forecast hinges on whether the severe cold arrives in Jan. or not. He's shook. Not as shook today as the other day, but he's still shook...a little.
Click to expand...
He’s got to quit hugging the Pioneer model! When that’s all you got on your side, your in deep doo doo
 
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