• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Rain Cold said:
I don't mean this as a slight to anyone, but I don't know why people who post in a public forum for the intent of public consumption don't try to articulate their point in a manner that is easily understood. I get the value in being very very very very very very smart. But it seems like you'd also want to be understood well and place as much value on developing communication skills as academic ones. The exception would be if you are communicating in an academic forum. But I digress.

Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
Click to expand...

I agree, it seems sometimes there is an intent to sound academic and technical on purpose to create a desired identity. That wouldn't seem very valuable to me unless you're only proposing to speak to your peers. I appreciate those who dumb it down for me! HM has valuable information, but if I don't understand it, how do I benefit?

Yeah I'm still hopeful and optimistic on the second half of the month into February. And even if we are pushed to Feb 1, if, if, if, everything comes together as it could and potentially may (nino climo, blocking up top, strat warming propagation along with the active STJ we've been seeing this year)...it would be one a heck of a February.
 
A bit of an interesting twist on the 12Z Doc starting 1/9. Let's see how it ends.

At the very least, this shows how fast things can change from one operational run to the next. It is sort of like, "Where did this solution come from?" Much deeper plunge of cold into the Midwest. Chicago is merely 20 degrees colder than 0Z run had.
 
Last edited:
This is a European guy, so yeah...but there seems to be more and more discussion about this propagating down. Will it? It seems like the GEFS thinks so I'd say.

1546455162568.png
 
And the Euro still looks good after that initial MW cold plunge to end its run. Folks are going to like the 240 hour 12Z Euro and CMC much better than 0Z versions due to their western ridging, but I recommend folks not get overly excited just yet! These came out of nowhere.
 
GaWx said:
And the Euro still looks good after that initial MW cold plunge to end its run. Folks are going to like the 240 hour 12Z Euro and CMC much better than 0Z versions due to their western ridging, but I recommend folks not get overly excited just yet! These came out of nowhere.
Click to expand...

Maybe this is the start of the eps joining the epo party? Hopeful.

Edit. Lol, ninjad by Larry.
 
My suspicion is the EPS is going to look better. I know that's like predicting the outcome of a bet on a bet of the bet of an outcome, but hey, I'm sticking with it anyway.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS changes are only subtle in the 6-10. Still warm/much warmer than the GEFS/GEPS in the 11-15.
Click to expand...
How does the Euro Op at 240 compare with the GFS/CMC Ops and their ensembles at 240? Reason I ask is that if we have a similar look from all camps at 240 with the exception of the EPS, it may indicate the EPS is having difficulty.
 
Rain Cold said:
How does the Euro Op at 240 compare with the GFS/CMC Ops and their ensembles at 240? Reason I ask is that if we have a similar look from all camps at 240 with the exception of the EPS, it may indicate the EPS is having difficulty.
Click to expand...

Fairly similar. Good point as the EPS, though the best overall, is sometimes too slow with changes in a zonal flow.
 
packfan98 said:
Looking at the 5H maps, the new 12z EPS has the Pac jet being cut off and more evidence of a developing split flow on days 9-10. Looks improved over 0z to me.
Click to expand...

I saw that but it then reverts to zonal doodoo in the 11-15.
 
It's just because it smooths out the various solutions. I like the ensembles and find value in ensemble forecasting. But at the end of the day, the outcome will probably not be the mean solution here. I would be very surprised if we ended up zonal for a lengthy period. Going back to some earlier discussions, you'll probably see the ensembles "correct" toward what some other variables are hinting at (mjo moving into a different phase, the propensity of HL blocking setting up via strat warming, SOI declining, etc.) In fact, the depiction of a zonal flow may be the beginning of such a correction. That said, ultimately, the "correction" may not turn out the way we all hope, but I wouldn't get too discouraged by seeing zonal in the ensembles late in the period. Now, if we saw a strong signal for a blazing SE ridge and a raging -PNA, that's a different story altogether.
 
Here's my guess on how things play out, at this point:

We see the MJO start to force a better pattern somewhere in the week of 1/20. At some point in the not-too-distant future beyond that, we see the effects of the SSW exert, maintaining a generally cold pattern, compliments of HL blocking. This, coupled with the generally good climo period should yield a solid 4-6 week period of winter. I don't think it'll be record-breaking in terms of being intensely cold for a lengthy duration. But it should definitely raise the prospects of multiple winter storm threads, as the STJ remains active.
 
Rain Cold said:
Here's my guess on how things play out, at this point:

We see the MJO start to force a better pattern somewhere in the week of 1/20. At some point in the not-too-distant future beyond that, we see the effects of the SSW exert, maintaining a generally cold pattern, compliments of HL blocking. This, coupled with the generally good climo period should yield a solid 4-6 week period of winter. I don't think it'll be record-breaking in terms of being intensely cold for a lengthy duration. But it should definitely raise the prospects of multiple winter storm threads, as the STJ remains active.
Click to expand...
To me this is a very reasonable way to view the pattern. We haven't seen extreme one way or the other so I don't expect record cold at this point. I can't remember the last time we had so much rain in winter. It wouldn't take much to meet up with cold air once the pattern allows it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Here's my guess on how things play out, at this point:

We see the MJO start to force a better pattern somewhere in the week of 1/20. At some point in the not-too-distant future beyond that, we see the effects of the SSW exert, maintaining a generally cold pattern, compliments of HL blocking. This, coupled with the generally good climo period should yield a solid 4-6 week period of winter. I don't think it'll be record-breaking in terms of being intensely cold for a lengthy duration. But it should definitely raise the prospects of multiple winter storm threads, as the STJ remains active.
Click to expand...

I agree with this but wouldn't be surprised if we see the pattern turn favorable a little earlier in the 1/10-15 range. I think it will be a fairly gradual progression too, not a sudden flip to Arctic cold but a gradual change to cooler weather before the bottom drops out. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a chunk of the PV break off like the FV3 has hinted at bringing some major cold to the US if it does. We usually seem to get a 4-6 week period with threats to track and my money would be on January 15 through late February/first week of March as our best chance with how things appear to be setting up.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some wintry solutions showing up on some models in the Jan 10-15 period. Usually with pattern changes there will be some nice winter storm chances for the SE, at least that's something I've personally noticed over the years.
 
I agree with Rain Cold as far as the ensembles smoothing our solutions. Ensembles are good for telling you if the op run is “on crack” or if a certain pattern in the future is more likely. If the various ensembles are scattered you get a smoothed out mean but very little help. The 5H pattern on the ensembles is a little wonky nor does it agree with or is consistent with other telecommections/MJO/etc. this does not mean that we are for sure entering a cold pattern, bit right now ensembles aren’t much more helpful than the ops, IMHO.
 
Since the government is shut down (Yay Yay) and composites and other data are not at the fingertips (Nay Nay), this is coming mostly from memory and a few internal notes ... but if memory serves correct, December 1983, January 1985, and December 1989 each came with a massive cold shot, preceded and followed by relative (significant?) warmth. One and done so to speak. If memory serves correct. Regardless, that may well be what we're looking at (a true cold spell and then bye bye). No science on this ... just pure gut ... but it would fit the pattern ...
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't mean this as a slight to anyone, but I don't know why people who post in a public forum for the intent of public consumption don't try to articulate their point in a manner that is easily understood. I get the value in being very very very very very very smart. But it seems like you'd also want to be understood well and place as much value on developing communication skills as academic ones. The exception would be if you are communicating in an academic forum. But I digress.

Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
Click to expand...
I agree, some of the things said here are too technical. Some reader's may not have any understanding of what they're talking about. You're right, things have to be simplified for the public to understand it. Sure, text book meteorological vocabulary can be used, but simplify it. Like what Albert Einstein said, "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."
 
This 18Z GEFS wasn't that good. It backtracked some more and is the warmest of the least few 11/13+. This not fun right now. It continues to make the EPS would like a genius.
 
GaWx said:
This 18Z GEFS wasn't that good. It backtracked some more and is the warmest of the least few 11/13+. This not fun right now. It continues to make the EPS would like a genius.
Click to expand...

Just brutal. I like Jon’s suggestion...don’t look at models until Jan 15th then see how things look. Even in our coldest winters we would get 1 or 2 10 day warm up. So you would think we could flip that, next 60 days, maybe get 2 7-10 cold spells.
 
I would not bet against the EPS. As mentioned everything seems to be trending towards them. Best rule of thumb is to go with the EPS that way you won’t be disappointed. Warmer for now is and will continue to win out for the foreseeable future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
I would not bet against the EPS. As mentioned everything seems to be trending towards them. Best rule of thumb is to go with the EPS that way you won’t be disappointed. Warmer for now is and will continue to win out for the foreseeable future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The best rule of thumb is actually to go for any model that doesnt show what you want. Ive seen them all fail to what shows misery.
 
Arcc said:
The best rule of thumb is actually to go for any model that doesnt show what you want. Ive seen them all fail to what shows misery.
Click to expand...
Great point. And to go a step further, just imagine in your head the type of weather you hate the most and that will verify at least 95% of the time
 
whatalife said:
I would not bet against the EPS. As mentioned everything seems to be trending towards them. Best rule of thumb is to go with the EPS that way you won’t be disappointed. Warmer for now is and will continue to win out for the foreseeable future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I only bet against it when it hasn’t been doing that great. EPS usually seems to get a pass, and usually rightfully so as it’s the best..but sometimes I wonder people take the ensemble as gospel or don’t question it enough, which I advise against.

Here’s a recent example of it blowing a 10 day forecast, especially over the United States.

10-day forecast

d8bc4fedb94dffad65ac948faff94740.jpg


Latest forecast

4ac01a348ac1abe79ddb61ab29efad7c.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
I only bet against it when it hasn’t been doing that great. EPS usually seems to get a pass, and usually rightfully so as it’s the best..but sometimes I wonder people take the ensemble as gospel or don’t question it enough, which I advise against.

Here’s a recent example of it blowing a 10 day forecast, especially over the United States.

10-day forecast

d8bc4fedb94dffad65ac948faff94740.jpg


Latest forecast

4ac01a348ac1abe79ddb61ab29efad7c.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I’ll still take my chances leaning towards the EPS. I’ll die fewer times doing so. The reality is that all models have been all over the place. AND yes people should be careful not to take the ensemble as gospel truth.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Flash Flood Watches up from East TX to AL and even GA for tonight and tomorrow. Also, fog never lifted all today, which is not that common around here. Likely from the cold front stuck along the I-20 corridor.
 
At this point, I feel like there is zero point in living and dying by the models. They aren't exact science and they rarely are accurate outside of the short term window aside from picking up on "ideas" that have no definite solution until the short term. Living in the south, we have to realize that winter and snow are highly dependent on getting all the variables in our favor at the right moment in unison with one another. While I feel confident as an enthusiast that these will work out for some of us somewhere before winter ends, until that happens, I am happy with what is given to us. All we can honestly do is keep peeking at what is shown and wait for that moment where something pops and give us something to at least track because just because it's going to be in the 60s this week for most, that isn't the end all for winter. It's the south.. we do this every year for the most part. Let's just keep pushing forward and eventually we'll get something to track... even if it doesn't plow through our backyard directly with snow... it will for someone! :) At any rate, I am tired of all this dang rain!!! If it's going to be warm, let's get some sunshine with it at least you know!? lol.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top