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Pattern Jammin' January

Even if unfavorable pac persisted into Feb, if we were to get strong blocking in Feb that could be enough. But, we would need a strong wbNAO.
 
Pushing 70 for 3 straight days in ATL next week. The early blooms are coming. Can’t be good for the peach crop.


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ATLwxfan said:
Pushing 70 for 3 straight days in ATL next week. The early blooms are coming. Can’t be good for the peach crop.


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It would be crazy if Atlanta doesn't have another freeze. I wonder if Atlanta has ever gone all of January and February without a freeze.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It would be crazy if Atlanta doesn't have another freeze. I wonder if Atlanta has ever gone all of January and February without a freeze.
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We will get a freeze if we get a clear night. One of those days where it’s 60 during the day and 30 at night


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The GFS look at 10 days I like and I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing a potential snow/ice threat showing up soon. The Euro and now the GFS are both dropping a 1045+ HP into the Midwest. This setup looks good for a nice ice storm/CAD event if we can get a southern stream wave timed at the right time.
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Here's the Euro showing the 1050mb HP dropping down.
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snowlover91 said:
The GFS look at 10 days I like and I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing a potential snow/ice threat showing up soon. The Euro and now the GFS are both dropping a 1045+ HP into the Midwest. This setup looks good for a nice ice storm/CAD event if we can get a southern stream wave timed at the right time.
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Here's the Euro showing the 1050mb HP dropping down.
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There’s literally light at the end of the tunnel and people are punting winter on January 2nd, yikes.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It would be crazy if Atlanta doesn't have another freeze. I wonder if Atlanta has ever gone all of January and February without a freeze.
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It would also be crazy if it never got up to 85 all of next summer in ATL. But that won't happen. Neither will no freeze the rest of the winter. Everybody breath. It is obviously going to take AT LEAST a week or two longer than we expected/wanted for it to turn colder. And, next week may be warmer that we would desire, but the pattern will change. More winter weather will return. How harsh and how long it lasts will be subject for good discussion.
 
RollTide18 said:
There’s literally light at the end of the tunnel and people are punting winter on January 2nd, yikes.
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This happens every winter, people get impatient for snow/ice and if it's the first week of January with no snow in sight we get the winter cancel posts. The expectations were set high with the early December snow that some saw on here but that doesn't always translate forward to a cold rest of the month. In fact that storm came right as our pattern was transitioning to a warmer one that we are still stuck in. I see signs on models of a change that starts January 10th and will gradually shift us into a better pattern by mid-January. Right now modeling is back and forth on that idea but I think as we get a bit closer people will see ensembles and OP runs shifting a bit colder.
 
pcbjr said:
Does that tunnel have railroad tracks coming through it by any small chance ... ? ...
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As I’m entering the tunnel I see a three car pile up at the other end. I can’t see any light but I can make out the writing on the side of one of the trucks. Joe’s Bath Repair Service
 
Batman said:
It would also be crazy if it never got up to 85 all of next summer in ATL. But that won't happen. Neither will no freeze the rest of the winter. Everybody breath. It is obviously going to take AT LEAST a week or two longer than we expected/wanted for it to turn colder. And, next week may be warmer that we would desire, but the pattern will change. More winter weather will return. How harsh and how long it lasts will be subject for good discussion.
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Oh come on now. Atlanta is in the DEEP south. Of course they will have temps above 85. But being so far south. cold is NEVER guaranteed.
 
Europe is gonna rock
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SoutheastRidge said:
Oh come on now. Atlanta is in the DEEP south. Of course they will have temps above 85. But being so far south. cold is NEVER guaranteed.
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Freezing isn't cold. Give this a rest...wow. Zero chance it won't get to freezing at ATL the rest of winter, so why keep this going>
 
Storm5 said:
m

Light ? It’s a few model runs . I wouldn’t call that light


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One of the best signs of an imminent pattern change is when OP models are a bit volatile back and forth with cold vs warm in the day 10-15 range. There are signs pointing to a gradual pattern change that begins around January 10th and within 5-10 days of that locking into a better pattern. How favorable remains to be seen but I expect models will begin shifting colder as they begin to figure it all out. All of the OP models are pointing to a sustained cold setting up starting day 9-10. Ensembles will pick up on this within the next few days IMO.
 
snowlover91 said:
One of the best signs of an imminent pattern change is when OP models are a bit volatile back and forth with cold vs warm in the day 10-15 range. There are signs pointing to a gradual pattern change that begins around January 10th and within 5-10 days of that locking into a better pattern. How favorable remains to be seen but I expect models will begin shifting colder as they begin to figure it all out. All of the OP models are pointing to a sustained cold setting up starting day 9-10. Ensembles will pick up on this within the next few days IMO.
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We don’t need deep green anomolies to get a snowstorm. January is prime climo. We just need a shade of blue and it’s game on
 
I came across some research that indicates SSW events usually spread the cold across Europe/Asia first while the US goes through a warm period and then it spreads to the US within 7-10 days. This fits the mid-January transition I think we will see here in the US. The SSW effects are going to be bringing some cold air into Europe/Asia the next 3-5 days and then 7-10 days later we will see similar in the US if this holds true. That would put us at January 15-20 to see some nice cold and fits in with the OP modeling dropping down a 1045+ HP by days 9-10.

Here's the excerpt from the article.
Cohen says during the week after the stratosphere warms, cold air shifts off the North Pole and usually moves toward Asia. At that time, Cohen says the eastern U.S. can get really warm by winter standards. Finally another week later the cold air often sloshes back over the North Pole and moves south into the eastern U.S.
So if we get a cold outbreak in Michigan and the eastern U.S. due to this SSW, it probably won’t happen until mid-January. Typically we see the cold air move south into the eastern U.S. and then becomes stationary for several weeks to a month.
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Current 2M anomalies in Europe/Asia.
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Anomalies in 4-5 days.
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Stormlover said:
Freezing isn't cold. Give this a rest...wow. Zero chance it won't get to freezing at ATL the rest of winter, so why keep this going>
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I'm 40 miles out of the city and have had several frosts in May since moving to Emerson in 2008. Lol.
 
Jessy89 said:
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I’ll take this look. It’s really really close to something good.


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HP in the wrong spot for snow around here. Mountains would get crushed and they need it. Low track is money though. This is not the first time FV3 has shown a GL around this time frame.
 
I don’t see an issue with the SSW. Just bad luck for us right now as we are not benefiting from it. I think you can blame the PAC on that but IMHO super blame the MJO phase. Now I think this is finally the time we will see some D8-15 changes because the MJO is moving into better phases and if we keep the SOI tanking then that will act like a “cattle prod” as JB says, to the atmosphere and pattern. I’m actually slightly optimistic.
 
If you could blend the 12z FV3 gulf low and the GFS HP strength and placement around this timeframe then someone east of the mountains would get crushed
 
Jessy89 said:
24f384a4c5e5224b90b5568f8f7bc912.jpg


I’ll take this look. It’s really really close to something good.


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Looks delicious! My yard was starting to dry out! :)
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If you could blend the 12z FV3 gulf low and the GFS HP strength and placement around this timeframe then someone east of the mountains would get crushed
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Cmon this is like me telling my wife the chili is good but needs more salt, more spice, more meat/fewer beans, and needs to be cooked longer but otherwise it’s perfect.


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