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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
I would as well if it were under day 5 and not post day ten AND not the FV3


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Why do I get the feeling we have down graded based on some of the wonky 500mb looks on the FV3?

I had high hopes, but those are sunk at this point.
 
Batman said:
It would also be crazy if it never got up to 85 all of next summer in ATL. But that won't happen. Neither will no freeze the rest of the winter. Everybody breath. It is obviously going to take AT LEAST a week or two longer than we expected/wanted for it to turn colder. And, next week may be warmer that we would desire, but the pattern will change. More winter weather will return. How harsh and how long it lasts will be subject for good discussion.
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SoutheastRidge said:
Oh come on now. Atlanta is in the DEEP south. Of course they will have temps above 85. But being so far south. cold is NEVER guaranteed.
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SoutheastRidge said:
With weather, ANYTHING can happen. Nothing ever surprises me anymore.
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Storm5 said:
Europe is gonna rock
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And so passeth another kitten.

I wonder how Europe has done relative to normal over each of the last 5 years or so in winter?
 
Arcc said:
Why do I get the feeling we have down graded based on some of the wonky 500mb looks on the FV3?

I had high hopes, but those are sunk at this point.
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It was posted the other day that the GFs has better H5 scores vs the new FV3 post day 6 . I’ll see if I can find it


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Rain Cold said:
And so passeth another kitten.

I wonder how Europe has done relative to normal over each of the last 5 years or so in winter?
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If I remember correctly, Europe has had some blockbuster Winters over the last several years...Don't know how it relates to their norm though...I would think they have "over-achieved"
 
Gfs and fv3 looks decent middle of the month, but don't worry, Charlie will end up saying something on my comment to make me feel dumb for saying that, LOL!!
 
accu35 said:
Gfs and fv3 looks decent middle of the month, but don't worry, Charlie will end up saying something on my comment to make me feel dumb for saying that, LOL!!
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No one is making anyone feel dumb . People can believe what they want . That’s the whole point of the board


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accu35 said:
Gfs and fv3 looks decent middle of the month, but don't worry, Charlie will end up saying something on my comment to make me feel dumb for saying that, LOL!!
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Why would you say that??? It seems like to me you do a pretty good job at doing it yourself....burn!!!????j/k Sorry, I had too. I enjoy reading your comments..?
 
Rain Cold said:
He basically said no for now but if a couple of things happen that look like they might happen, things might get better. And remember what I was asking about the mjo getting into the better phases and it not mattering? He basically talked about that too.
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Are they really considered colder phases if it reaches those phases and it doesn't turn cold?
 
99ED476C-FC4A-427A-B407-D22FA144C8B5.png

That ridge in the east just doesn’t fit with everything else going on at 500 even with that ridge out west not being in an ideal location. If someone wants to try and explain this please do it without mentioning the MJO thanks
 
tennessee storm said:
phases 8 1 2 ... not 100 percent guaranteed get cold ... but one thing certain... those phases present a more amped up pattern ....
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Yeah, was more of a rhetorical I got caught up in the banter that shouldn't be in this thread moment and posted it. I know those phases are our cold phases and best chances for us, just seems this year is trying to defy odds a bit.... then again it's early and I'm in no way complaining or tossing in the towel
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 9949

That ridge in the east just doesn’t fit with everything else going on at 500 even with that ridge out west not being in an ideal location. If someone wants to try and explain this please do it without mentioning the MJO thanks
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Equal and opposite reaction. You get a trough out west, you get a tendency for ridging in the east. Also, you’re seeing a broad lower height/pressure zone across Canada, so you get a ridge respond farther south. Now what’s driving such a bad configuration? I’m not sure we have a consolidated answer. Seems to be a combination of unfavorable things.
 
Storm5 said:
It was posted the other day that the GFs has better H5 scores vs the new FV3 post day 6 . I’ll see if I can find it


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As far as I can see they’re very similar Day 8 and Day 10, fractional differences do it’s pretty negligible.

Day 8
GFS 0.669
FV3 0.666

Day 10 the scores are
GFS 0.494
FV3 0.496


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Flurry said:
If I remember correctly, Europe has had some blockbuster Winters over the last several years...Don't know how it relates to their norm though...I would think they have "over-achieved"
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That’s my recollection too.
 
I am just a little intrigued for the 14th-16thish...GFS and FV3 have a system coming ashore about the same time. It also appears the Euro was ahead that way too. Guess it’s to bad we don’t have enough cold air around...
a700208a58f067cbe819568a3f6b05e0.jpg
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
View attachment 9949

That ridge in the east just doesn’t fit with everything else going on at 500 even with that ridge out west not being in an ideal location. If someone wants to try and explain this please do it without mentioning the MJO thanks
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It's better than the EPS...it wants to stick a trough in the same spot. This is the 0z run and previous runs showed the same. Maybe 12z changes.

14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 348.png
 
Jon said:
As far as I can see they’re very similar Day 8 and Day 10, fractional differences do it’s pretty negligible.

Day 8
GFS 0.669
FV3 0.666

Day 10 the scores are
GFS 0.494
FV3 0.496


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Pretty sure FV3 is the Debuhl (Devil)!

:oops:
 
Jon said:
As far as I can see they’re very similar Day 8 and Day 10, fractional differences do it’s pretty negligible.

Day 8
GFS 0.669
FV3 0.666

Day 10 the scores are
GFS 0.494
FV3 0.496


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Yeah that’s not too far apart
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Rain Cold said:
Equal and opposite reaction. You get a trough out west, you get a tendency for ridging in the east. Also, you’re seeing a broad lower height/pressure zone across Canada, so you get a ridge respond farther south. Now what’s driving such a bad configuration? I’m not sure we have a consolidated answer. Seems to be a combination of unfavorable things.
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... and a germ of a visual footnote ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,605
 
Looks like we have a fairly solid storm signal in the southern stream coming into southern CA / northern Baja next weekend. Certainly encouraging to see the Euro suite pumping HP's out of central Canada, with building 500 heights over eastern Canada into the Davis Straight ahead of the system.
 
The OP models have a 1040-1050 HP dropping into the Midwest around day 9-10 and have been consistent with this feature for a few runs now. If this holds the next few days we will want to monitor this timeframe for a possible winter weather threat. As always it will depend on timing but some players are starting to come onto the field.
 
snowlover91 said:
The OP models have a 1040-1050 HP dropping into the Midwest around day 9-10 and have been consistent with this feature for a few runs now. If this holds the next few days we will want to monitor this timeframe for a possible winter weather threat. As always it will depend on timing but some players are starting to come onto the field.
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Yea I have noticed that too. Then the cold instead of diving on down it just slides off east. If we can have it push on in. We will have a threat for some of the southeast. Good times ahead.
 
GaWx said:
A bit of improvement on the EPS 11-15 for a change. Nothing like GEFS but improved vs earlier runs, Overall, 12Z runs' consensus is improved for 11-15.
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Yep. EPS is improved Day 15 and also you can see the trends for Day 13-14 looping the last 3 model runs. +PNA starting to develop earlier than advertised. These anomalies used to be below Hudson Bay.
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Jon said:
Yep. EPS is improved Day 15 and also you can see the trends for Day 13-14 looping the last 3 model runs. +PNA starting to develop earlier than advertised. These anomalies used to be below Hudson Bay.
6df5e1ae31d47ff0eb3ae5436fdfbef5.jpg



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Much better and big change from previous runs. Stupid weathermodels site isnt updating, good thing it only costs $9/month.
 
Jon said:
Yep. EPS is improved Day 15 and also you can see the trends for Day 13-14 looping the last 3 model runs. +PNA starting to develop earlier than advertised. These anomalies used to be below Hudson Bay.
6df5e1ae31d47ff0eb3ae5436fdfbef5.jpg



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The ECWMF trends further/longer into MJO Phase 8 and the EPS is improving. Almost seems like it's not a coincidence ;) If we can get that PV to trend further southeast like the GEFS/GEPS show at the end of their runs business will pick up in a big way.

JanENMJOphase8gt1500mb.gif
 
The unfortunate part is the euro brings the mjo right back into the phase 4, which isn't good later. Also, like HM said last night, hadley cell being expanded isn't good for cold.

Webber mentioned about the east asian mountain torque event. Do we think its just a temporary fix when it gets going?
 
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1300m said:
The ECWMF trends further/longer into MJO Phase 8 and the EPS is improving. Almost seems like it's not a coincidence ;) If we can get that PV to trend further southeast like the GEFS/GEPS show at the end of their runs business will pick up in a big way.

JanENMJOphase8gt1500mb.gif
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I agree on the eps and euro trending deeper into phase 8 and longer period as well. Like I said earlier today, my optimism is growing a little bit.
 
Interesting seeing the Hawaii ridge shift west/weaken over the past few EPS runs with today's being a moderate shift. Allows our Npac low to slide west. By end of run the ridge is almost absent. GEFS has a trough back towards Hawaii, little to far west.

EPStrends.gif14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 360 (1).png
 
Golf7575 said:
The unfortunate part is the euro brings the mjo right back into the phase 4, which isn't good later. Also, like HM said last night, hadley cell being expanded isn't good for cold.

Webber mentioned about the east asian mountain torque event. Do we think its just a temporary fix when it gets going?
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Welcome. To the forum golf 7575... let’s get this dead winter alive....
 
Golf7575 said:
Delta, do you think the soi is only dropping because mjo is moving to other phases?
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They work in tandem. As the westerlies move east and drive down the SOI and move the MJO eastward the better the pattern.
 
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