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Pattern Jammin' January

Arcc said:
I can get behind the GFS at 288-300hrs. That may be the most favorable pattern on an OP seen in a while. Maybe we are getting somewhere.
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My 3 day forecast has changed 3 times, lol. Models don't know what's going to happen any better then we do...they just hint, and tease. Here is my prediction based on the fact that it's winter. It Will Get Cold! Some night it will get to freezing. And it will rain some too. Will they meet up?? That's the reason we follow the weather :) I know for sure I've had beau coups of rain. I poured out over 8 inches in the last few weeks. It rains every day almost. The ground is squishy down 3 inches, standing water everywhere. My croquet court is a lake. My next prediction is this....when it gets cold the rains will stop, lol. That's weather in the south...it hates us, and tries to make us cry :) And it usually wins.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Isnt it comical how you hardly ever see a grest lakes low when where torching and lp coming across the SE every 3 to 4 days
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There is a reason. A low over the GL normally means a strong northern stream and/or PV lobe. Thus also the possibility of suppression or shearing of the southern stream.When we are torching, that is exactly what we do not have.
 
A lot more colder air in western Canada building up this run vs previous this is right at day 8-9.

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If you were holding out hope for late next weekend don’t look at the the 00z GFS
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If you were holding out hope for late next weekend don’t look at the the 00z GFS
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Lol. Gotta look at the big picture. Baby steps. If we get something before the 15th I would be a little surprised. I am looking for the overall pattern look and the build up of the cold air in western Canada.
 
But wait there’s more! Beautiful wave. Only this time with temps in the low 40’s! ??☔️B4E6F147-442C-4F33-9928-690AED859A22.png
 
Another close hit. Still suppressed getting within 10 days.. also this model has been most consistent with a threat for around the 14th time period 64697DB5-5286-4CF4-AA3D-D50358A03002.png156BB7E0-6797-4FFB-BAD1-2FE5F068882F.png
 
Pattern change going full tilt in 6z GFS! Going from rainy southern sliders, to rainy apps rubbers! Winter just won’t give up!! :(
 
The negative East Asia Mountain Torque event I talked about last week (with low pressure over the Tibet Plateau and China) is now showing up in the medium range on most major ensemble suites. This is one of your first big warning signs of an upcoming pattern change because the negative mountain torque event will help retract/pull back the Pacific jet. This jet retraction allows the Aleutian low to retrograde westward in addition to more breathing room to dig southward, and leaves us with a more malleable, “wavy” jet stream that is thus more conducive to blocking downstream in the NE Pacific and Alaska (-EPO) in the longer term. It’ll take about a week or so for the Pacific jet to respond to this negative mountain torque over east Asia which puts us around the time when NWP is finally showing a favorable pattern for cold/snow, essentially about 2 weeks from now.
 
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The middle of the month does look interesting. Just have to watch and see. We don't have any shortage of precip with the pattern we are in. Just need the cold to come with it.
 
NCSNOW said:
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Seeing the EPS fold to the GEFS is excellent news IMO. That look on the 19th looks pretty good to me...not even a WAR on that image! It's hard to believe actually. It's not perfect but that's getting into a money zone right there. Obviously it's going to change but if those fundamental elements stay, it's great news. If we can keep the SOI negative I think we could at least be in the game late January. If the bigfoot/unicorn actually shows up for real, February could be really fun. Hopefully these looks stay...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The negative East Asia Mountain Torque event I talked about last week (with low pressure over the Tibet Plateau and China) is now showing up in the medium range on most major ensemble suites. This is one of your first big warning signs of an upcoming pattern change because the negative mountain torque event will help retract/pull back the Pacific jet. This jet retraction allows the Aleutian low to retrograde westward in addition to more breathing room to dig southward, and leaves us with a more malleable, “wavy” jet stream that is thus more conducive to blocking downstream in the NE Pacific and Alaska (-EPO) in the longer term. It’ll take about a week or so for the Pacific jet to respond to this negative mountain torque over east Asia which puts us around the time when NWP is finally showing a favorable pattern for cold/snow, essentially about 2 weeks from now.
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Webber, my question to you becomes is this a temporary fix or longer lasting pattern change? Im referring to the EAMT event? Anyway this coincides with the SSW situation?
 
SnowNiner said:
Seeing the EPS fold to the GEFS is excellent news IMO. That look on the 19th looks pretty good to me...not even a WAR on that image! It's hard to believe actually. It's not perfect but that's getting into a money zone right there. Obviously it's going to change but if those fundamental elements stay, it's great news. If we can keep the SOI negative I think we could at least be in the game late January. If the bigfoot/unicorn actually shows up for real, February could be really fun. Hopefully these looks stay...
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The geps looked good also i thought
 
Rain Cold said:
These are both pretty big improvements. Hard to call it a trend yet, but if we can string 2-3 days of this together and watch it begin to work in, we can start to get a bit more confident.
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I think we are basically there. We may push a few more says but as a whole the light is at the end of the tunnel

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