Pattern Jammin' January

[Golf7575]

They work in tandem. As the westerlies move east and drive down the SOI and move the MJO eastward the better the pattern.

One more thing Chris, ive been hearing about this +eamt event. Webber alluded to it earlier, but what will that actually do for us long term?

 

[Stormlover]

We really aren't that far off from normal with snowcover at this point.

 

[snowlover91]

Yep snow cover is pretty normal right now for North America.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

We really aren't that far off from normal with snowcover at this point.
View attachment 9954

Unfortunately almost all of the snow cover is in areas where hardly nobody lives.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Unfortunately almost all of the snow cover is in areas where hardly nobody lives.

Which doesn’t make it any less normal

 

[Rain Cold]

Twittersphere lighting up about the Weeklies still honking a cold pattern from the last week of Jan through Feb.

 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS coldest run in awhile day 7+.

 

[Kylo]

Twittersphere lighting up about the Weeklies still honking a cold pattern from the last week of Jan through Feb.

Weeklies look like a better version of GEFS Jan21-28 then complete hammer time pattern week 4.

 

[Kylo]

Weeklies temps week 3 and 4. Actually better than Monday's run.

 

[Jon]

Weeklies look like a better version of GEFS Jan21-28 then complete hammer time pattern week 4.

Yep lol



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[deltadog03]

One more thing Chris, ive been hearing about this +eamt event. Webber alluded to it earlier, but what will that actually do for us long term?

I’m not sure to be honest. Webb or other know more about that than I do.

 

[accu35]

No one is making anyone feel dumb . People can believe what they want . That’s the whole point of the board


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I'm picking with ya

 

[Stormlover]

Which doesn’t make it any less normal

Yeah, I don't know what that had to do with anything, lol

 

[1300m]

I think we will continue to see improvement because of the MJO progression and the SOI dropping

Agreed.

 

[TheBatman]

I have to say this for the fv3. I think it actually was the first to sniff out the winter storm for Texas/Oklahoma... I think once they get the bugs work out it will eventually surpass the euro.

 

[1300m]

I have to say this for the fv3. I think it actually was the first to sniff out the winter storm for Texas/Oklahoma... I think once they get the bugs work out it will eventually surpass the euro.

From D5 and sooner it already has to me. One of my colleagues went to MN for Christmas and was telling me how the FV3 nailed the rain/snow transition and the Euro busted hard. FV3 has been very good inside 120 over the past year. Using deterministic runs beyond that is pretty silly anyways, so for me, I'm a huge FV3 fan.

 

[deltadog03]

Agreed.

Thank goodness for that, because if not, I think winter would super be in trouble.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Not as good as the one from a week or two ago but I’ll settle

 

[deltadog03]

I will also say that euro did (for a few runs for sure) have this system moving much further north than what it will. All models will bust at times for sure.

 

[1300m]

Thank goodness for that, because if not, I think winter would super be in trouble.

I think the SSW in tandem with this could still produce something pretty special by late January/early February.

 

[TheBatman]

What a perfect look just past 240 on fv3. Wouldn’t take much for this to be a big storm for many.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What a perfect look just past 240 on fv3. Wouldn’t take much for this to be a big storm for many.

View attachment 9959

Love how that 1040 flattens it out like a pancake. Definitely a lot to iron out but a big player may finally be on the field: Cold air

 

[Tarheel1]

Fab Flexing Feb will save us! All in

 

[deltadog03]

I think the SSW in tandem with this could still produce something pretty special by late January/early February.

I agree for sure. I will say if those line up it could be pretty special for sure. JB has a shot to see a very modified pattern of his forecast if that works out.

 

[pcbjr]

Fab Flexing Feb will save us! All inView attachment 9960

Sorry, but that is absolutely disgusting ...

 

[Arcc]

What a perfect look just past 240 on fv3. Wouldn’t take much for this to be a big storm for many.

View attachment 9959

Only because its goofy. Anyone trust this look to give us a winter storm?

 

[pcbjr]

Anyone trust this look to give us a winter storm?

Yes ... a nice warm rain shower perhaps ...

 

[Jessy89]

I’m really liking the 14th and 15th time frame. But we need positive trends and there’s time


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[NoSnowATL]

Sorry, but that is absolutely disgusting ...

I guess he forgot forearms on arm day?


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[Arcc]

I can get behind the GFS at 288-300hrs. That may be the most favorable pattern on an OP seen in a while. Maybe we are getting somewhere.

 

[Storm5]

Welcome to our new members. We’ve had some awesome people join in the last few days . A couple of my favorites from the other place . Welcome !!! Look forward to the great discussions and epic cliff diving!


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[1300m]

I agree for sure. I will say if those line up it could be pretty special for sure. JB has a shot to see a very modified pattern of his forecast if that works out.

With what we can see, and what we know from the February analogs (taken directly from Allan Huffman's winter outlook), I like where we are at.

 

[Golf7575]

With what we can see, and what we know from the February analogs (taken directly from Allan Huffman's winter outlook), I like where we are at.

View attachment 9962

I would take a cold stormy February for sure, but i am concerned with that strong pacific jet. Until that slows down, i think we are on thin ice this year. Hadley cell was mentioned by HM last night and today alot. We dont want it expanded fo sho lol

 

[Kylo]

With what we can see, and what we know from the February analogs (taken directly from Allan Huffman's winter outlook), I like where we are at.

View attachment 9962

Funny how 87 was probably the worst looking one but the snowiest winter I ever experienced in the Triad. Wouldn’t stop snowing that winter. I think I missed a month of school.

 

[Tarheel1]

We need cold in place, and this epic finger and motion! A lot would be crushed!!

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Welcome to our new members. We’ve had some awesome people join in the last few days . A couple of my favorites from the other place . Welcome !!! Look forward to the great discussions and epic cliff diving!

Thanks for having us. And thanks for having a quality board. I promise I won't ruin it.

 

[EmersonGA]

Funny how 87 was probably the worst looking one but the snowiest winter I ever experienced in the Triad. Wouldn’t stop snowing that winter. I think I missed a month of school.

87 was the first winter I really remember well. We had one doozy of a storm that looks like it was around 10” if tree snapping snow. I remember great sledding.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Thanks for having us. And thanks for having a quality board. I promise I won't ruin it.

Welcome! Glad to have you over here.

 

[dsaur]

Unfortunately almost all of the snow cover is in areas where hardly nobody lives.

Lol, it's because it's cold and snowy, and most people want warm weather, because they don't get it 12 months a year like we do. Even when it's cold down here, it's relatively warm

 

[deltadog03]

With what we can see, and what we know from the February analogs (taken directly from Allan Huffman's winter outlook), I like where we are at.

View attachment 9962

Amen