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Pattern Jammin' January

Golf7575 said:
One more thing Chris, ive been hearing about this +eamt event. Webber alluded to it earlier, but what will that actually do for us long term?
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I’m not sure to be honest. Webb or other know more about that than I do.
 
I have to say this for the fv3. I think it actually was the first to sniff out the winter storm for Texas/Oklahoma... I think once they get the bugs work out it will eventually surpass the euro.
 
DarkKnight said:
I have to say this for the fv3. I think it actually was the first to sniff out the winter storm for Texas/Oklahoma... I think once they get the bugs work out it will eventually surpass the euro.
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From D5 and sooner it already has to me. One of my colleagues went to MN for Christmas and was telling me how the FV3 nailed the rain/snow transition and the Euro busted hard. FV3 has been very good inside 120 over the past year. Using deterministic runs beyond that is pretty silly anyways, so for me, I'm a huge FV3 fan.
 
I will also say that euro did (for a few runs for sure) have this system moving much further north than what it will. All models will bust at times for sure.
 
1300m said:
I think the SSW in tandem with this could still produce something pretty special by late January/early February.
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I agree for sure. I will say if those line up it could be pretty special for sure. JB has a shot to see a very modified pattern of his forecast if that works out.
 
DarkKnight said:
What a perfect look just past 240 on fv3. Wouldn’t take much for this to be a big storm for many.

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Only because its goofy. Anyone trust this look to give us a winter storm?

fv3p_z500a_nhem_43.png
 
I’m really liking the 14th and 15th time frame. But we need positive trends and there’s time


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deltadog03 said:
I agree for sure. I will say if those line up it could be pretty special for sure. JB has a shot to see a very modified pattern of his forecast if that works out.
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With what we can see, and what we know from the February analogs (taken directly from Allan Huffman's winter outlook), I like where we are at.

feb.gif
 
1300m said:
With what we can see, and what we know from the February analogs (taken directly from Allan Huffman's winter outlook), I like where we are at.

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I would take a cold stormy February for sure, but i am concerned with that strong pacific jet. Until that slows down, i think we are on thin ice this year. Hadley cell was mentioned by HM last night and today alot. We dont want it expanded fo sho lol
 
We need cold in place, and this epic finger and motion! A lot would be crushed!!AAC37AA3-7434-47CB-BE2E-AECE21D5292B.png
 
Kylo said:
Funny how 87 was probably the worst looking one but the snowiest winter I ever experienced in the Triad. Wouldn’t stop snowing that winter. I think I missed a month of school.
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87 was the first winter I really remember well. We had one doozy of a storm that looks like it was around 10” if tree snapping snow. I remember great sledding.
 
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