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Pattern Jammin' January

MBell said:
At this point, I feel like there is zero point in living and dying by the models. They aren't exact science and they rarely are accurate outside of the short term window aside from picking up on "ideas" that have no definite solution until the short term. Living in the south, we have to realize that winter and snow are highly dependent on getting all the variables in our favor at the right moment in unison with one another. While I feel confident as an enthusiast that these will work out for some of us somewhere before winter ends, until that happens, I am happy with what is given to us. All we can honestly do is keep peeking at what is shown and wait for that moment where something pops and give us something to at least track because just because it's going to be in the 60s this week for most, that isn't the end all for winter. It's the south.. we do this every year for the most part. Let's just keep pushing forward and eventually we'll get something to track... even if it doesn't plow through our backyard directly with snow... it will for someone! :) At any rate, I am tired of all this dang rain!!! If it's going to be warm, let's get some sunshine with it at least you know!? lol.
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Indeed...The winter is not over and at some point things will break to a colder pattern. My gut say by the end of the month things will look different and until then we get to enjoy the warmth for a little while longer.


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The weekend of the 11th has potential on the FailV3...big high building in the plains..needs some work even if it doesn’t go *poof*..why not? I love disappointment 32B0FC27-B8D3-4033-ADF0-A87CCF853824.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The weekend of the 11th has potential on the FailV3...big high building in the plains..needs some work even if it doesn’t go *poof*..why not? I love disappointment View attachment 9930
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System moves north out of Baja then east, then SE. It bothers me a lot that this model does things in the long range that do not seem to be even reasonable. I mean 384 fantasy Miller A systems at least are a pattern that exist in real life. It did good with the Dec system so I don't want to totally bash it but it seems to do some un-natural things.
 
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Nomanslandva said:
System moves north out of Baja then east, then SE. It bothers me a lot that this model does things in the long range that do not seem to be even reasonable. I mean 384 fantasy Miller A systems at least are a pattern that exist in real life. It did good with the Dec system so I don't want to totally bash it but it seems to do some un-natural things.
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This winter, so far, has done some unnatural things, and it looks to continue on a parade of its own; now which street or corner winter decides to turn up or round next week for its continued Machiavellian march (no pun) is any blonde model's guess ...
 
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We don't know exactly what the SSW will have an affect on the southeast region yet. I doubt the cold will lock in place during mid month. I think the pattern will be transitional, from strong cold shots to warmer periods. It will also be a dryer pattern. The first cold shot looks to be between the 12th/15th of this month. We'll also need to keep a watch for any storm systems between the cold shots.

I think it will be getting really cold (possibly the PV getting locked in place, at times) by late this month or by mid Feb.
 
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Looking at the higher than normal heights across the globe on the ensembles, it really makes me think back to last Feb. The models consistantly had the higher anom heights even in the troughs.I remember being sure, along with others that they would trend lower and they didnt and Fab Feb was a Fab Bust before cooling down in March.

Considering the SSW happened a month earlier this year, if we follow the same path it will be in Feb before we see any real change. Just food for thought.
 
Tonight’s GEFS has slowed its progression and is more in line with the EPS. Shocker. If you’re planning a chase this winter you may want to consider Bangor, Maine bc the white stuff aint falling around here anytime soon
 
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Kylo said:
I have no idea what he is talking about but I know it isn’t good based on the tone. The sky is falling was the gist I got.
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I love how people ask him what he means and he never dumbs it down, haha.

Anyway...the Pacific overwhelming and delaying/preventing the pattern change. There’s no end in sight for mild wet bs making its way over the United States. What else is new. I hope he is wrong for our sake.


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Storm5 said:
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Simply put...There is no end in sight for this warm winter we are having and good luck on a cold pattern change at the end of this month if what he is saying doesn’t change.


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whatalife said:
Simply put...There is no end in sight for this warm winter we are having and good luck on a cold pattern change at the end of this month if what he is saying doesn’t change.


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Yea I think you are right, the PAC is too active and the warmth will be hard to remove. I think we are in deep . We still might get a cold pattern but I think February and March is the new goal. We might only have 1-2 chances this winter. Poop poop.


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The GEPS weeklies seem to get a wannabe -EPO/+PNA and builds a -AO just after day 10. Then continued to pump the -AO.
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This pattern reminds me of last December due to the ridging to the east. (Bear with me, since government shutdown I don’t have readily accessible anomaly maps)
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The pattern then evolved to this shortly after
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NoSnowATL said:
Yea I think you are right, the PAC is too active and the warmth will be hard to remove. I think we are in deep . We still might get a cold pattern but I think February and March is the new goal. We might only have 1-2 chances this winter. Poop poop.


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What happened to the warm oceans, cool continents theory! We should be freezing
 
Tarheel1 said:
What happened to the warm oceans, cool continents theory! We should be freezing
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It’s cold just not on our side. I’m sure Webb and 1300 will call us out but I think we need to just hope for 1-2 weeks. This winter will definitely be a learning tool for future winters. I’ve learn more this winter then ever.


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I do admit it’s depressing seeing little change in the EPS, although it does look slightly improved in the extended. I probably need to heed my own advice and step away.

But I won’t, and as a Bonus here’s the always dependable CFSv2 maps...
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I honestly don’t want see another El Niño for while ... most them way over rated ... assuming it’s foing be cold with plenty moisture from the southern jet... well southern jet is not the problem ... like mentioned. It’s the pacific ... just over whelming other things It’s preventing to develop much of a ridge out west ... ... not sure the mjo will even help much in the good phases when and if it gets there..
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s cold just not on our side. I’m sure Webb and 1300 will call us out but I think we need to just hope for 1-2 weeks. This winter will definitely be a learning tool for future winters. I’ve learn more this winter then ever.


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I've relearned we don't know squat. Relearn it every year.
 
He basically said no for now but if a couple of things happen that look like they might happen, things might get better. And remember what I was asking about the mjo getting into the better phases and it not mattering? He basically talked about that too.
 
So the problem this year with a modoki nino, low solar, -QBO, PDO, etc is.......too much storminess in Indonesia. :rolleyes:. It's always something isn't it? I'm getting to the point where I'm going to punt January. Even the GEFS although not terrible way out, is not cold. It's going to be a while I'm afraid.

I still think February has a chance to be gold if we can get the effects of the SSW to propagate down. Not gonna bet on it though. Well maybe there's something to Brick's forecast....NC got it's storm in December, and we only get one.
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s cold just not on our side. I’m sure Webb and 1300 will call us out but I think we need to just hope for 1-2 weeks. This winter will definitely be a learning tool for future winters. I’ve learn more this winter then ever.


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Arcc said:
I've relearned we don't know squat. Relearn it every year.
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All the talk about great patterns and a great winter for snow lovers always sucks me back in, but I know better and should stick to my mantra regarding winters around here. It doesn't matter what the long range outlook says, what the indicies show, and what the pattern looks like. Winter is just going to do what it is going to do here. The models can show potential, but what actually happens with an actual threat is anyone's guess. We saw that with the early December storm, and we have seen it time and time again. I should be happy to have gotten in on that storm, and not expect anything else this winter, simply because we rarely get more than one big storm a winter, and if we get a big one we usually don't get anything else worth while.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All the talk about great patterns and a great winter for snow lovers always sucks me back in, but I know better and should stick to my mantra regarding winters around here. It doesn't matter what the long range outlook says, what the indicies show, and what the pattern looks like. Winter is just going to do what it is going to do here. The models can show potential, but what actually happens with an actual threat is anyone's guess. We saw that with the early December storm, and we have seen it time and time again. I should be happy to have gotten in on that storm, and not expect anything else this winter, simply because we rarely get more than one big storm a winter, and if we get a big one we usually don't get anything else worth while.
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Yeah. And you can thank the wedge effect on that storm ... same system for us here was just s plain cold rain ...
 
Arcc said:
I know one thing, our seasonal guidance is atrocious worldwide.
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Pretty much. Keep seeing decent patterns show up in the seasonals, and so far, there's not a lot to show for it.
 
Sudden stratospheric warming events usually cool the tropopause and equatorial stratosphere the most & sometimes only over the warmpool region of the Indian Ocean & West Pacific. As HM has talked about last night, it's really the narrow "z-cell sandwich" we currently have that's a major deterrent for us getting cold already and having a -EPO because there's virtually nowhere for the sub-polar Aleutian low to go being stuck between an expansive Hadley Cell from Indian-West Pacific convection and a decaying polar vortex to the north.

This actually gets to the heart of why SSWEs are more efficient at delivering cold air to us in El Ninos because ENSO is capable of interfering with the enhanced convection that's largely created only over the warm pool during the SSWE. When convection occurs over the Indian Ocean & West Pacific as it does more frequently in La Ninas, the Hadley Cells expand poleward and subtropical highs do the same, pushing the storm track globally further north and ultimately deterring high-latitude blocking that's needed in some way, shape, or form to afford us with legitimate opportunities for cold & snow. Once the aforementioned negative mountain torque event takes place over East Asia that I talked about several days ago, the Pacific jet will begin to retract in the following week or so (essentially a couple weeks from now) and it will be at that point where we may begin to try & tank the EPO.
 
Concurrently, we're seeing a massive westerly wind burst over the Equatorial Pacific thanks to this large MJO event predominated by equatorial Rossby Waves in the warm pool that are acting to seriously amp the +u wind anomalies near the dateline. This is going to trigger a substantial downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave which may have ramifications for ENSO all the way into 2019-20 as said Kelvin Wave will be entering the east-central Pacific by the time we reach the spring predictability barrier in March.

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Per Radiant meteorologist just now, even though the MJO is predicted to go into the normally colder phases of 7-8, there is unusually warm water near Indonesia, which will cause the main convective forcing to continue to be from that area even when the MJO gets into 7-8. This Indonesian forcing is La Niña-like and phase 4-5like. The EPS maintains this dominant Indonesian convection, which would allow this La Niñaish/phase 4-5 pattern to continue. The poorly performing GEFS has been moving that Indonesian convection to a position that would mimic MJO phase 6. That’s why it has been colder than the EPS.
This explanation appears to agree with HM if I’m understanding HM correctly. Webb may also be in agreement with this to some extent though maybe he’ll comment on this.

Radiant feels E US warmth will continue to dominate through most of the 16-20 day period and that only after then it may turn colder.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Sudden stratospheric warming events usually cool the tropopause and equatorial stratosphere the most & sometimes only over the warmpool region of the Indian Ocean & West Pacific. As HM has talked about last night, it's really the narrow "z-cell sandwich" we currently have that's a major deterrent for us getting cold already and having a -EPO because there's virtually nowhere for the sub-polar Aleutian low to go being stuck between an expansive Hadley Cell from Indian-West Pacific convection and a decaying polar vortex to the north.

This actually gets to the heart of why SSWEs are more efficient at delivering cold air to us in El Ninos because ENSO is capable of interfering with the enhanced convection that's largely created only over the warm pool during the SSWE. When convection occurs over the Indian Ocean & West Pacific as it does more frequently in La Ninas, the Hadley Cells expand poleward and subtropical highs do the same, pushing the storm track globally further north and ultimately deterring high-latitude blocking that's needed in some way, shape, or form to afford us with legitimate opportunities for cold & snow. Once the aforementioned negative mountain torque event takes place over East Asia that I talked about several days ago, the Pacific jet will begin to retract in the following week or so (essentially a couple weeks from now) and it will be at that point where we may begin to try & tank the EPO.
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This make sense then...heads back over to the warm phases?

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Unlike last year, when GEFS did very well with its record breaking forecast just off the chart of very strong phases 6-7 when it was still in phase 5 and the much weaker EPS did very poorly, this time the EPS appears to be doing better than GEFS with GEFS now MUCH weaker than it was while the EPS is somewhat stronger vs earlier being near and into the circle.
 
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