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Pattern Jammin' January

GaWx said:
I’m not saying the MJO is necessarily going to track like that. But in case it does, this is from my MJO post of yesterday:
“7. Jan 2005:
Jan 22-5, when the MJO was either inside the circle in 7-8 or barely outside in 8, was -7 in a month that outside of those days was a much warmer +5:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200501.phase.90days.gif”

Also, note that Jan of 2015, which was during another weak El Niño, had something somewhat similar:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201501.phase.90days.gif
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And then you have something like 78...which everyone was hoping would be a viable analog for this winter. It traversed phase 4-6 for about 2 weeks end of Jan into Feb, "warm phases" and it was a frozen tundra across the conus. Seems like MJO plays a part and we use it as an excuse when it's warm and we hope when it moves to colder phases. Seems like it just wants to be warm with small windows of cold the past few winters and including this one. We just hope to get lucky in those brief periods of cold. We sure have been lucky the past couple of winters, including this one already.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 10.33.46 AM.png197801.phase.90days.gif.small.gif
 
GaWx said:
He’s still not going to get his sub -5 for DJF that he has for N GA/E TN and nearby. That would require a turnaround of unheard of epic proportions that has not occurred since records started in the 1870s at least. He should at least go ahead and admit that that won’t happen now.
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Yeah, that seems to be pretty much off the table. You mentioned earlier about the warm Arctic. On a related note, the SSTs in the Pacific seem to be running pretty warm. I wonder if that is muting the impact of the Nino at all due to there not being as much contrast?
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know what it is, but something about seeing his image makes me want to punch a kitten.
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Yes I’m curious to see how a daughter vortice just south of greenland can give me seasonal temps when it’s effects are felt in 3 weeks
SnowNiner said:
With the SOI going negative perhaps the atmosphere starts acting like a nino, and nino climo starts to take over, making it more likely to keep the +PNA/-EPO combo.
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truer words have never been spoken. You took the words right out of my keyboard. We had what seemed to be a very atypical La Niña last year especially in the first half of winter and a very ordinary La Niña pattern in the back half of winter. I’m banking on backhalf Niño conditions taking over at some point after the third week in January for 3-4 weeks (slightly BN) followed by a seasonal to warm end to winter and spring. There will be a few big Nor’easters before this one is over. Hopefully we can get in on that Miller A track. I’m still optimistic
 
Not that I look at it anymore on a regular basis, but rumor has it that the 6Z GFS was frigid starting late 1/14 and continuing through 1/15-7. Anyone give a poop?
 
FV3 really been tanking the AO past few runs...good to see.

Even with a hostile pac, if we could get some nice blocking we could always fluke one. We don't need it cold for the next 8 weeks, just need it cold for a day or two before a wave tracks south of us.

fv3gfs_ao_forecast.png
 
13c78a7ce575da9cc02d1c5e1a83802d.jpg



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Kylo said:
FV3 really been tanking the AO past few runs...good to see.

Even with a hostile pac, if we could get some nice blocking we could always fluke one. We don't need it cold for the next 8 weeks, just need it cold for a day or two before a wave tracks south of us.

View attachment 9897
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I love when indices are literally off the chart


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He hasn't really explained this yet. I'm guessing it's because there were so many indicators that were supporting a cold winter when the forecasts were issued. And also, because winter isn't over yet.
 
Rumor has it that the 12Z GFS, after being very warm, is similar to the last couple for midmonth with nonpoopy maps.
 
GaStorm said:
Would the duration being longer allow blocking to last longer as well?
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Good question. I haven't the faintest idea. I've always been under the impression it was the strength that was the most important factor. But every SSW is different as far as downstream effects are concerned. Meanwhile, I'm still waiting to see if the EPS will ever fold.
 
So I'm guessing by end of next week, we can flip the pattern for the better for us southerner? I'm fine flipping pattern middle of January with cold as long we get those storms rolling in.
 
accu35 said:
So I'm guessing by end of next week, we can flip the pattern for the better for us southerner? I'm fine flipping pattern middle of January with cold as long we get those storms rolling in.
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Let's hope that it even flips mid-month. The EPS, the most accurate model in general, says no dice through the end of its last run.
 
accu35 said:
So I'm guessing by end of next week, we can flip the pattern for the better for us southerner? I'm fine flipping pattern middle of January with cold as long we get those storms rolling in.
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I would extend your expectations to later in the month


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This is from the 12z GFS *still running*.
look how much different we are on the pressure patterns by D10.
Now vs D10
gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_1.pnggfs_mslpaNorm_namer_41.png
 
If we could just get one Storm. That could satisfy 75 percent of the southeast Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Mississippi Alabama. Tennessee. I’d be extremely satisfied and wouldn’t ask for another this year


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After looking at the pressure patterns over the SOI region (Darwin and Tahiti) it appears we should see some consecutive days of NEG values if the models are right in what its showing.
 
Nice to see the SER gone in the long range.
 
The 12Z GEFS is suggesting to me that it is continuing to slowly give in due to cold bias. It looks great in the longterm but keeps slowly warming before. Until the EPS changes significantly, I'm not going to take the much colder than EPS GEFS runs too seriously. Don't want to be dissappointed yet again.
 
PV popping in the LR on the FV3975BF510-78C1-4221-93A9-D1B644A0D3F2.png
Don’t get too excited though. We still roast like a pig on the 4th
E4B411AE-E4C2-4AC2-8A2E-B1757E81ADAD.png
 
packfan98 said:


He hasn't really explained this yet. I'm guessing it's because there were so many indicators that were supporting a cold winter when the forecasts were issued. And also, because winter isn't over yet.
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Well, lol, seems like he's saying January is a big bust. But an understandable one. I don't think he meant that things will definitely get better, although I think he's implied that with other tweets. If you stare at his tweets long enough they start to blend to form a picture of a unicorn. o_O

1546452728627.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, lol, seems like he's saying January is a big bust. But an understandable one. I don't think he meant that things will definitely get better, although I think he's implied that with other tweets. If you stare at his tweets long enough they start to blend to form a picture of a unicorn. o_O

View attachment 9911
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That’s how I read it too. January is toast. I guess he is sympathetic to the people that went cold because he understands why they did.

It’s not a winter isn’t over tweet thread.
 
Honestly, I'm not really sure what Anthony M ("HM") is saying some of the time. It is almost as if he's sometimes talking in coded language that I can't decipher. If I were a pro-met, I'd probably be able to follow him much better .He's often the polar opposite of someone like JB, who usually types in a way that is relatively easy to follow even if he's often overhyping/wrong.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, lol, seems like he's saying January is a big bust. But an understandable one. I don't think he meant that things will definitely get better, although I think he's implied that with other tweets. If you stare at his tweets long enough they start to blend to form a picture of a unicorn. o_O

View attachment 9911
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I don’t get how you can say “there were equal chances of either outcome happening” when it was always going to be either A or B. It was either going to happen this way or that way. The answers were out there and most got it wrong to this point. The weather can be predicted better than it is. In our lifetime we will see big time changes and tracking winter weather won’t be near as exciting as it once was. They will say “our supercomputer shows one chance at snow 24 days from now” and that will be it
 
From Radiant mets this morning: They don't play around. They don't hype cold at all. I find them to be about as objective as any mets.

"In light of major warm changes for the first half of January that have taken place in the last week, we are updating our current monthly outlook to better reflect the much warmer pattern taking shape. Our 1-20 Day forecast (Jan 2-21) yields just 525.1 GWHDDs, which would be the 4th-warmest Jan 2-21 period on record. However, forecast confidence does falter in the 11-15 Day as models diverge with the favored ECMWF supporting a continued warm pattern while the GFS Ensemble shows more of a -EPO/-NAO pattern which would mark a transition to a colder regime. We do expect a colder transition to eventually occur, but more likely holding off until the final third of the month. A colder final third of January has support from the Euro weekly model which shows ridging building into Alaska as well as the North Atlantic, a pattern that also has support from stratospheric analogs for the latter half of January. That said, due to the very warm first 2/3 of the month we are lowering January’s GWHDD forecast to 880, which would be the 10th warmest January since 1950."
 
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I don't mean this as a slight to anyone, but I don't know why people who post in a public forum for the intent of public consumption don't try to articulate their point in a manner that is easily understood. I get the value in being very very very very very very smart. But it seems like you'd also want to be understood well and place as much value on developing communication skills as academic ones. The exception would be if you are communicating in an academic forum. But I digress.

Anyway, we can't really say that January is toast. I think we can safely say that about half of it is. But what the second half holds, remains to be seen. And there certainly have been a few signals that have developed over the past couple of days that should inspire a bit of optimism. Hopefully, that will continue.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I don’t get how you can say “there were equal chances of either outcome happening” when it was always going to be either A or B. It was either going to happen this way or that way. The answers were out there and most got it wrong to this point. The weather can be predicted better than it is. In our lifetime we will see big time changes and tracking winter weather won’t be near as exciting as it once was. They will say “our supercomputer shows one chance at snow 24 days from now” and that will be it
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Most analogs to this winter would have suggested a stronger back half. We're all probably pretty much in agreement there. But I think at the point in time he was talking about, we had a better than average shot of taking the colder fork in the road. Unfortunately, the higher percentage play of warming up won out.

One day, we'll probably have much better simulations of the atmosphere, like you suggest. We'll probably also have some geoengineering/weather modification techniques that can be brought to bear. But it'll be a while yet. In the meantime, we'll have to continue to debate about the EPS vs. GEFS vs. Analogs vs. Antilogs, etc. I do miss how we used to get more surprises than we get now, though.
 
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