Jessy89
Member
When’s the last run of gfs?
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Jon
Member
FV3 GFS should become operational in late January (Jan 24)....With the government shutdown, it could take as long as March (I’ll add that’s always been the case and it’s been mentioned it should be done within the first two quarters of FY2019 ). The GFS will still be operational until that time, so unfortunately it will still be with us as we ring in the new year.
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Brent
Member
something crazy from the Euro earlier... last night's 0z had a foot of snow in NYC next week, the 12z has highs near 60 at the same time lmao
These models are just all over the place
These models are just all over the place
NCSNOW
Member
I question if we are even in a nino. This is Nina stuff we are seeing (soi). If we are in nino it has to be in infant stages and thus the lag in expected results, which would argue for it going longer into 2019 early 2020. I dunno, but NChailstorm on amx who watches this solar stuff like a hawk posted today we best get over to phase 7 or 8 fast cause another corona hole or something along those lines would cause the mjo to stall for atleast another 2 weeks before getting a move on again. So if it happens while in a warm phase, go ahead and punt thise 2 weeks.
Yeah. We had some minor flooding issues with last Thursday's system. Looks like the weather is stuck in a holding pattern.
ghost1
Member
It was! I was a little kid and remember the snow being over my knees and drifts over my waistI bet this was awesome !!!
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No, he’s not dead yet. He has been barely hanging on on life support for many years though. He’s definitely a fighter! Kudos.
I just took a look at it, that ridge looks ugly. If that look holds true, the weather is going to be boring through early Jan. winter weather wise. It looks zonal starting on 1/8. Storm systems would track west to east basically. There will probably be some colder days, but no severe cold. By mid month, we *may be in a colder pattern. We'll see, I'm very cautious when it comes to the longer range.
Well, I would take my chances with that zonal flow. It’s better then having to fight with that southeast ridge. By looking at it it takes it out of the way.
Like you said in your post. Hopefully this will start setting thing for a colder pattern mid month and beyond.
And so as this image shows this latest GEFS has a solid -AO that starts 1/14 and stays for the rest of the run along with a solid -NAO that had become established much earlier in the run. By then the MJO should be in 7-8 and good Nino climo should just be arriving. +PNA/-NAO/-AO/MJO 7-8/weak Nino/mid Jan. Don't get excited, Larry, don't get excited. It is just a mirage. Cold bias. Don't fall for it. The mega-zonal EPS is going to deflate our dreams. It is like the movie Ground Hog Day all over again.
Edit: I do think the EPS is way overdoing the zonal flow. I think that may even be a bias of recent months. Remember when it was very slow in catching onto the colder pattern change in the fall?
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Nice cold look on the long range FV3. It’s a start. 
Here is what bothers me.... the eps has an even better MJO forecast by then vs GEFS but still looks like poop. I don’t buy the eps.
Keep in mind that a couple of days ago for a couple of days the GEFS had the MJO off the chart. And now it is well down within the chart. So, I think the MJO is still adjusting toward reality on both the GEFS and EPS though they're still far apart.
Meanwhile Doc still looks like doo doo. No surprise there.
Agreed. GEFS came down from the unrealistic forecast while eps came up.
New data for JAN 1...
Another nice daily drop for the SOI
Another nice daily drop for the SOI
ATL sig/major winter storm dates during weak to moderate El Nino:
12/29, 12/31, 1/1, 1/7, 1/8, 1/22, 1/23, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8, 2/12-15, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14
So, even if we punt through the first half of Jan, we still have 13 of the 18 sig/major wk to mod Nino major storms that occurred after that period. Look at all of the storms 1/22-29!
12/29, 12/31, 1/1, 1/7, 1/8, 1/22, 1/23, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8, 2/12-15, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14
So, even if we punt through the first half of Jan, we still have 13 of the 18 sig/major wk to mod Nino major storms that occurred after that period. Look at all of the storms 1/22-29!
FV3 looked fantastic starting around mid month. If that happens you can bet your ass there will be plenty of cold air
good grief. In 2019 you would think we could do better with our forecast models. We can launch a shuttle into space and bring it back in one piece but we can’t tell if it’s going to be hot or cold in 10 days
Brent
Member
mmm 70s next week
Remember when this winter was gonna be so great?
Remember when this winter was gonna be so great?
If your gonna trust anything this far out trust the ensembles not each op. The overall picture is the GEFS looked better and so did the FV3. The GFS is at the end of its life and shouldn’t be taken that serious especially in this situation. So we should continue to see if this remains a trend in the days to come.
I’ve been watching the ensembles but haven’t really found them helpful as the GEFS has consistently folded like a cheap lawn chair inside 200hrs. Every tool we have is struggling with the MJO and the progression thereof. People can get on here and complain about the people complaining but the truth is they don’t know either and the complainers and LR OP evaluators keep the site clicks coming in. None of what I just said was a shot at you. Just wanted to air that last part out
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I wasn’t trying to call anyone out I was making a simple statement.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The SOI is exceptionally noisy and among my least favorite ENSO indices, but this month is record positive for a December NINO. Looking at DJF, the weak NINO in 1929-30 still had the biggest +SOI with +12.2 in January 1930.
1929-30 looked like this snowfall-wise in NC, pretty close to average overall across the state.
great point!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Happy New Years from the 6z GFS! Probably just hungover!
Kylo
Member
Great agreement between GEFS/EPS in the 6-10. But by day 12 they really start to diverge. Posted in the banter thread about how much the GEFS has been struggling in the day 10+ wanting to rush the blocking.
Kylo
Member
It is nice to see back to back OP runs of the FV tanking the AO/NAO.
whatalife
Moderator
We’ve spent a lot of time reading about and discussing the mjo lately. And there have been a lot of posts both lamenting the fact that it has spent so much time in the warm phases and imploring it to get into the cold phases. Nowhere does anyone seem to be suggesting that even if it makes it into the cold phases, our pattern may not improve. I assume that is legitimately possible, but I don’t see that outcome being given any weight. Maybe I’m wrong, though. I guess we will find out eventually.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It will make it to the "cold" phases (phase 7-8, etc), to suggest this may not happen at this juncture is ridiculous. The pattern may not be bitterly cold but it's not going to stay mild like this
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CFSv2 MJO forecast amplitude is arguably the most realistic of available NWP but it's almost certainly way too fast with propagation into the Western Hemisphere. The Euro several days ago tried to dissolve the MJO before moving into phase 6 while the GFS was off the charts, the middle of the road solution which the CFSv2 has actually had for a while now won out & will continue to do so for the foreseeable future imo. Delay the phase 8-1 forecast by several days-week or so and that's probably pretty close to what we'll see. -NAOs lag Pacific MJO forcing by a week or two (for various reasons), I don't expect this case to be much different in a general sense.
That wasn’t at all what I was suggesting. I know it WILL. That’s why I said I guess we will find out eventually (and here’s the point/question I was driving at)...eventually, when it DOES make it into the cold phase, is there a possibility that it does not force the kind of pattern that people are expecting? I’m not pointing at any particular post or poster, but by and large, I would guess 99% of the posts on the subject expect that it will force a favorable pattern when it makes it to 7 and on. I was merely wondering if something else might be driving the pattern that might override the positive effects of a favorable mjo, because I haven’t really seen that thrown out as a possibility. But I might have missed it. I was just curious.
I didn’t mean to be ridiculous and suggest that it will never get there by using the word IF above. It was just a standard phrase in a conversational string of typing.
whatalife
Moderator
If we were to have an amp phase 8 as shown here...What would that look like for us?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's fine, but I'm just trying to clear the air because there are many posters here (including myself) that probably took it the wrong way & thought you were clearly suggesting we wouldn't see the MJO even make it to the cold phases, which isn't going to happen. The pattern is definitely going to change a lot between now and mid-late January, how much to our benefit it is remains to be seen but it looks significantly less unfavorable to cold/snow.
Kylo
Member
I don’t. EPS seems to be doing a little better.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Phase 7-8 features an extensive & strong Aleutian Low with southern stream disturbances undercutting the ridge over eastern Canada, a -NAO tries to develop in light of the favorable tropical forcing and stratosphere help, and a ridge forms near the Canadian Rockies as a classic Pacific-North American response to tropical Pacific convection. This ridge over the Rockies amplifies and retrogrades towards Alaska by the time we enter phase 8. This is the expected response from a significant phase 8 MJO event in an El Nino-esque mean state.
The EPS is forecasting a significant negative mountain torque event over East Asia next week, it takes about 1-2 weeks for the atmosphere to fully respond and this -MT means the very strong Pacific jet in the first portion of the month will eventually begin to relent and shift the placement of the Aleutian Low westward & may trigger a -EPO response, not unlike what's expected in phase 8-1 MJO events in an El Nino. Aside from the sudden stratospheric warming event, this -MT over East Asia is a very big hint that deck of cards we're being dealt is going shuffle around a lot in mid-January.
Just to serve as a reminder of what Mountain Torque actually is, here's a nice graphic someone made on another forum I regularly visit. The positive phase features large surface highs east of the Rockies and Himalayas, creating a cross-barrier pressure gradient that acts against Earth's rotation slowing it down. The atmosphere picks up the slack and speeds up to compensate and keep the earth in angular momentum balance, so we get strong westerly jet streams in the mid-latitudes. The positive mountain torque triggers frictional torques that sew the seeds of its own demise, and it usually flips sign within a week or two. You can probably envisage what a negative mountain torque with large cyclones over eastern & Northeastern Asia will do to the large-scale global pattern in mid-late January, the Pacific jet will buckle and anticyclones will be favored once again in the NE Pacific & Alaska (-EPO).
