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Pattern Jammin' January

Kylo said:
Be nice if esrl sites were up. Looks like 1914 and 1915 were both snowy too. Would love to see the Jan patterns in those and what they flipped too.
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1914-15 oth lol, oh it was snowy alright, just not when you expected it to be. Only good storms were in mid November, late March & April actual winter was zzz.

We had back-to-back big dogs at the end of March & beginning of April.

November 19-20 1914 NC Snowmap.png
March 30-31 1915 NC Snowmap.png
April 2-3 1915 NC Snowmap.png
 
I bet this was awesome !!!
fc5971376de18801e94f25d1b379b121.jpg



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pcbjr said:
Thing is, you will.
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Yea it just a matter of time.
But no complaints from me. Last 8 years we have have some nice snows here.

2010 Christmas Day snow. 5 inches
2011 January storm. 11 inches
2014 February storm. 7 inches
2015 February storm. 10 inches
2015 March sleet fest. 2 inches (amazing thing about that storm the day before it was in the 70’s that day).
 
I
Storm5 said:
I bet this was awesome !!!
fc5971376de18801e94f25d1b379b121.jpg



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I was in Homewood during that fun time. I lived in Ga. at the time l was visiting my father and this was the first snow that l ever saw, l was 10 years old. That's when l knew l was snow freak. Made my first snowman. Those totals were taken Friday 5pm it snow till midnight. We measure a foot that night. It was a great weekend!!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can & should still use ancient analogs, you just have to know how to use them. Any signal you're trying to attain by using years in the past 30-40 years is more likely to be riddled with noise that has little or nothing to do w/ ENSO, than if you used all years because event-event variability is as large or larger than the basic state changes in the climate you're acknowledging by changing the analyzed subset of years. Studies by Garfinkel et al noted that a record of at least several hundred years length is required for ENSO-derived signals to be larger than internal variability! Adjusting ancient analogs to a modern climate period is one of the better ways to use them.

Climate change has altered some aspects of the circulation response to ENSO but most of its key features have resonated for hundreds-thousands of years in the Holocene & very likely will continue to do so long into the future.

Very few people or professional mets actually know what to do w/ ancient analogs, how to utilize them responsibly or understand the basic caveats associated with them, leading to instances over over and misuse like we see w/ JB et al, and on the other end of the spectrum, being overly critical of those who take advantage of them properly.

I regularly look at years in the late 19th & early-mid 20th century because while I know the climate has changed significantly since then, I also understand the modern observed record is far too short to capture most or even sizable portion of sub-interannual variability that's legitimately possible in our current climate and looking at data only after 1980 severely misrepresents extreme events that both have the biggest impact on society, yet occur w/ such finite regularity that a 30-40 year record is less likely to identify them at all.

Henceforth, not at least looking and grappling with some of the basic messages that ancient years "teach" you actually limits your capabilities as a forecaster/enthusiast, leads to an over-funneling of perceived, permissible modern weather/climate variance & will make you more apt to respond with excessive, blind fervor to extreme events when they do occur.
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Put me in my place and educated me. Favorite post of all time.


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I feel like the ENSO is too positive for winter storms, meaning the El Nino is really "cranked" up making the flow too amped to not allow any cold air to make it further south (warm PAC air) Maybe the ENSO needs to be more netrual. I haven't checked the status of the ENSO lately. Perhaps, someone else can discuss further.
 
WxWatch said:
I feel like the ENSO is too positive for winter storms, meaning the El Nino is really "cranked" up making the flow too amped to not allow any cold air to make it further south (warm PAC air) Maybe the ENSO needs to be more netrual. I haven't checked the status of the ENSO lately. Perhaps, someone else can discuss further.
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Are you meaning the SOI is too negative or the SSTs are too high? Like in the eastern Pacific or more toward the central or western areas?
 
Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.
 
deltadog03 said:
Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.
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If it is...I’m willing to bet it hasn’t been this positive very often.


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deltadog03 said:
Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.
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Very unusual for +SOI in month of Dec. we have had 3 consecutive months +. Granted Oct/Nov barely positive.

Last nino that gas +SOI was Dec 1969 and it was 2. We are at 9 which is Nina territory.

Probably function of spending most of Dec in Ph3-5.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au...SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt
 
Rain Cold said:
Are you meaning the SOI is too negative or the SSTs are too high? Like in the eastern Pacific or more toward the central or western areas?
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I'm meaning the equatorial tropical areas of the Pacific. Warmer SSTs would increase the strength of the ENSO, which would cause a amped SJT. The warm moist flow keeps flowing, not allowing cold air to extend further south. Isn't the SOI the ENSO though? since the SOI is the southern oscillation index.
 
I don’t know why but I’m still watching Jan 8th-10th closely


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deltadog03 said:
Maybe Larry or Webb can answer this, SOI has been largely positive this month, is that normal in these type nino events? I know negative SOI values usually support ninos.
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To add to what @Kylo said, the record high El Niño Dec SOI back to the 1870s is only about +4 vs the current +9! That’s out of about 48 El Niño’s!
 
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