Pattern Jammin' January

[Rain Cold]

I see a lot of frustration and some terrible modeling by most models for the 8-10 day and especially the 10-15 day time frame. They can’t be trusted and that’s 100% correct logic.

Now, how you interpret that is up for debate. Heat does largely win out most of the time, and a lot of models have a cold bias in general, but I’ll have to disagree on trusting a full on torch for the LR just because heat is more believable to the eye.

If the models were showing a spectacular pattern but have been all over the place, the same people will be yelling not to trust the 10-15 cold because the models are inconsistent. So why the double standard?

Also, CR don’t take this the wrong way. We go way back. Just seeing a lot of the same stuff on twitter too..calling out the optimistic folks. I don’t really get it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No worries man. I appreciate your post. When models show cold, you rarely get any dissenting comments (like, “you just can’t trust the models”). But when they show warm, you tend to see a lot of posts, tweets, facebookings, blogs, etc. talking about how you can’t trust the models for this or that reason. I have been observing weather and models long enough to know that the truth of the matter is that you can’t trust long range model output most of the time, regardless of what they’re showing. On the other hand, I have seen far and away more instances of warmth in the LR verifying than cold in the LR verifying. Why is this? Maybe it’s because the models have a cold bias, like you said. Maybe it’s because the background climate is generally warm. Maybe it’s one particular variable or another like the mjo or ssw or whatever. And maybe that variable or combination of variables changes from season to season. But whatever it is, it’s easier for the models to be right in the LR when they show warm than when they show cold.

That said, you’re right, the models can’t be 100% trusted in the LR regardless of what they’re showing. But if they’ve been showing warm and we have been warm and they’re continuing to show warm, I think the best course of reason is to suspect that more warmth is on the way, unless there is some very compelling reason to believe otherwise.

Everyone that has done research this year will say that the back half of the winter was the part that was expect to be colder. That gives some reason to suspect (or hope) the models may be off at the longer leads regarding the warmth. We’ll see, but it is going to have to start showing up in the next couple of weeks at the LR if that’s going to pan out, unless we’re defining the last half of winter to mean the second half of Feb and March. I hope that’s not the case.

 

[Webberweather53]

That’s the light at end of the tunnel.

The amount of excessive pessimism and whining on here about this pattern lately is abhorrent & completely unnecessary. When you're living and dying by one or a few successive NWP runs (even though many don't want to admit it), even if it's an ensemble suite, & interpreting every long range modeled fantasy as something "worth watching" or a "threat", or exclaiming how the EPS or GEFS suite is "colder thru x-x date on x-x run" without actually understanding what's leading to the run-run changes or if they're actually significant, you're bound to end up disappointed & embarrassed. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you're interminably despondent and negative just because you don't want to be heartbroken or as a knee-jerk reaction to others that are living in their own world of denial that a storm is suddenly going to come knocking on their door in a few days, both lines of rationale will eventually come back to bite you.

Not to sound pompous or demeaning to the rest of the blog, but little has actually changed in the grand scheme of things in the last few weeks. I know I've mentioned many times on here that the favored window for cold/snow in +ENSO winters is late January-early March, & this year is really no different & is following the crowd in a general sense with obviously a huge blemish in early Dec for NC & VA.

It really shouldn't be news to anyone that mid-late January & February look more favorable than late Dec-early Jan for wintry weather in the Carolinas & the rest of the southeast.

 

[pcbjr]

The amount of excessive pessimism and whining on here about this pattern lately is abhorrent & completely unnecessary. When you're living and dying by one or a few successive NWP runs (even though many don't want to admit it), even if it's an ensemble suite, & interpreting every long range modeled fantasy as something "worth watching" or a "threat", or exclaiming how the EPS or GEFS suite is "colder thru x-x date on x-x run" without actually understanding what's leading to the run-run changes or if they're actually significant, you're bound to end up disappointed & embarrassed. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you're interminably despondent and negative just because you don't want to be heartbroken or as a knee-jerk reaction to others that are living in their own world of denial that a storm is suddenly going to come knocking on their door in a few days, both lines of rationale will eventually come back to bite you.

Not to sound pompous or demeaning to the rest of the blog, but little has actually changed in the grand scheme of things in the last few weeks. I know I've mentioned many times on here that the favored window for cold/snow in +ENSO winters is late January-early March, & this year is really no different & is following the crowd in a general sense with obviously a huge blemish in early Dec for NC & VA.

It really shouldn't be news to anyone that mid-late January & February look more favorable than late Dec-early Jan for wintry weather in the Carolinas & the rest of the southeast.

Very well said and worth a pin, Webb!
Phil

 

[pcbjr]

^^^
Oh, and BTW ...

 

[TheBatman]

The amount of excessive pessimism and whining on here about this pattern lately is abhorrent & completely unnecessary. When you're living and dying by one or a few successive NWP runs (even though many don't want to admit it), even if it's an ensemble suite, & interpreting every long range modeled fantasy as something "worth watching" or a "threat", or exclaiming how the EPS or GEFS suite is "colder thru x-x date on x-x run" without actually understanding what's leading to the run-run changes or if they're actually significant, you're bound to end up disappointed & embarrassed. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you're interminably despondent and negative just because you don't want to be heartbroken or as a knee-jerk reaction to others that are living in their own world of denial that a storm is suddenly going to come knocking on their door in a few days, both lines of rationale will eventually come back to bite you.

Not to sound pompous or demeaning to the rest of the blog, but little has actually changed in the grand scheme of things in the last few weeks. I know I've mentioned many times on here that the favored window for cold/snow in +ENSO winters is late January-early March, & this year is really no different & is following the crowd in a general sense with obviously a huge blemish in early Dec for NC & VA.

It really shouldn't be news to anyone that mid-late January & February look more favorable than late Dec-early Jan for wintry weather in the Carolinas & the rest of the southeast.

We have had some of our worst ice storms also in February. For example 1985 and 1994 storms. That was pretty awesome.

 

[Webberweather53]

Intraseasonal forcing is also favorable for -NAO in the extended & is helping along the stratosphere. By the time the MJO reaches the western hemisphere, the Aleutian Low is usually near max intensity (shutting off downward WAFz reflection into northern North America) & the jet stream shifts equatorward over the longitudes of active convection (Atlantic, EP, Africa, etc), both of which are more favorable to negative NAOs. Hence, -NAOs usually follow a week or two after a Pacific MJO event, & it's arguably more likely here given the ongoing stratospheric warming event & the MJO is already strong in the Maritime Continent and far West Pacific. NAO predictability is going to be low here & I personally don't expect NWP to be too keen on this particular -NAO stint until it's almost too late, but we will definitely have the general ingredients to acquire a formidable -NAO in the 2nd half of January.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The amount of excessive pessimism and whining on here about this pattern lately is abhorrent & completely unnecessary. When you're living and dying by one or a few successive NWP runs (even though many don't want to admit it), even if it's an ensemble suite, & interpreting every long range modeled fantasy as something "worth watching" or a "threat", or exclaiming how the EPS or GEFS suite is "colder thru x-x date on x-x run" without actually understanding what's leading to the run-run changes or if they're actually significant, you're bound to end up disappointed & embarrassed. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you're interminably despondent and negative just because you don't want to be heartbroken or as a knee-jerk reaction to others that are living in their own world of denial that a storm is suddenly going to come knocking on their door in a few days, both lines of rationale will eventually come back to bite you.

Not to sound pompous or demeaning to the rest of the blog, but little has actually changed in the grand scheme of things in the last few weeks. I know I've mentioned many times on here that the favored window for cold/snow in +ENSO winters is late January-early March, & this year is really no different & is following the crowd in a general sense with obviously a huge blemish in early Dec for NC & VA.

It really shouldn't be news to anyone that mid-late January & February look more favorable than late Dec-early Jan for wintry weather in the Carolinas & the rest of the southeast.

I think the early December storm threw everyone for a loop, and some were expecting a winter with threat after threat. Maybe we are just in a lull now until later in January. But, I am not so sure we'll have more threats here in the Raleigh area just because we did have a big storm already, and history shows we don't get more than one big storm here for winter, and if we do get a big storm that's usually the only storm of significance for us. I'd love another big one, or two or three smaller storms with 2 or 3 inches of snow. But that is so rare for us to get around here. But I am hoping this is the winter it does happen, and things start getting wintry again around the 15th of January.

 

[Rain Cold]

The amount of excessive pessimism and whining on here about this pattern lately is abhorrent & completely unnecessary. When you're living and dying by one or a few successive NWP runs (even though many don't want to admit it), even if it's an ensemble suite, & interpreting every long range modeled fantasy as something "worth watching" or a "threat", or exclaiming how the EPS or GEFS suite is "colder thru x-x date on x-x run" without actually understanding what's leading to the run-run changes or if they're actually significant, you're bound to end up disappointed & embarrassed. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you're interminably despondent and negative just because you don't want to be heartbroken or as a knee-jerk reaction to others that are living in their own world of denial that a storm is suddenly going to come knocking on their door in a few days, both lines of rationale will eventually come back to bite you.

Not to sound pompous or demeaning to the rest of the blog, but little has actually changed in the grand scheme of things in the last few weeks. I know I've mentioned many times on here that the favored window for cold/snow in +ENSO winters is late January-early March, & this year is really no different & is following the crowd in a general sense with obviously a huge blemish in early Dec for NC & VA.

It really shouldn't be news to anyone that mid-late January & February look more favorable than late Dec-early Jan for wintry weather in the Carolinas & the rest of the southeast.

I think going warm a month or so in winter without anything to track tends to lend itself to a little pessimism. I don’t see a lot of whining outside of the banter thread. Sure there are a few posts here and there, but nothing widespread. Also, keep in mind that most posters on forums like this don’t have the background or experience to be able to analyze things the way a met or met student does. All they see are model images that show either cold or warm or rain or snow. I don’t see anything wrong with being skeptical no more than I do with being overly optimistic. The back half of the winter is expected to be better. But if you want the pessimism to abate, then there needs to be visible signs of it within the medium that most people have access to. Until then, we just deal with a range of human emotions, and that ought to be ok. There is a reason to be optimistic about later on. It’ll just be good when it starts showing up.

 

[Rain Cold]

I think the early December storm threw everyone for a loop, and some were expecting a winter with threat after threat. Maybe we are just in a lull now until later in January. But, I am not so sure we'll have more threats here in the Raleigh area just because we did have a big storm already, and history shows we don't get more than one big storm here for winter, and if we do get a big storm that's usually the only storm of significance for us. I'd love another big one, or two or three smaller storms with 2 or 3 inches of snow. But that is so rare for us to get around here. But I am hoping this is the winter it does happen, and things start getting wintry again around the 15th of January.

I don’t think you can use history that way. Statistics mean something, but there needs to be a context around them sometimes. If we get into a favorable pattern, the odds of us getting a big snow will be the same as if we had never gotten any snow in December.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The good thing is we have seen things go from looking horrible to a winter storm here pretty quickly. I actually don't want wall to wall bitter cold for winter. That's not when we usually get good storms here. It's a fine line, but I think we have better shots at good winter storms here when we have a lot of back and forth with the pattern, going from warm to cold, and it doesn't have to be super cold, either.

 

[Rain Cold]

The good thing is we have seen things go from looking horrible to a winter storm here pretty quickly. I actually don't want wall to wall bitter cold for winter. That's not when we usually get good storms here. It's a fine line, but I think we have better shots at good winter storms here when we have a lot of back and forth with the pattern, going from warm to cold, and it doesn't have to be super cold, either.

Also, as bad as things look in the LR, I don’t see a pattern that can’t get better fairly quickly. So that’s good.

 

[SnowNiner]

I'm still hanging in there. I think Jan 20 onward we're going to be well on our way to a solid pattern based on GEFS and it's handling of the MJO; it seems righter than most on that. Having EPS showing the constant western troughing though creates anxiety no doubt. But it's crappy verification on the MJO I believe is showing it's poor handle. GEFS showing -AO/+PNA in the more favorable phases long term just makes more sense. I just don't see why once we get in the favorable phases of the MJO, why we'd have such a crappy pacific with a disturbed/split/displaced vortex in a nino. Doesn't make sense to me.

We may not be in a score pattern by mid January, but I think we'll be close. I bet a week from tomorrow the models look much better.

 

[WxWatch]

The good thing is we have seen things go from looking horrible to a winter storm here pretty quickly. I actually don't want wall to wall bitter cold for winter. That's not when we usually get good storms here. It's a fine line, but I think we have better shots at good winter storms here when we have a lot of back and forth with the pattern, going from warm to cold, and it doesn't have to be super cold, either.

You're correct, it does not have to be super cold for snow storms. In fact, warm air must be around to allow moisture in the air to form those flakes. Some may not realize that there can be those "warm snow storms."

 

[Webberweather53]

I think going warm a month or so in winter without anything to track tends to lend itself to a little pessimism. I don’t see a lot of whining outside of the banter thread. Sure there are a few posts here and there, but nothing widespread. Also, keep in mind that most posters on forums like this don’t have the background or experience to be able to analyze things the way a met or met student does. All they see are model images that show either cold or warm or rain or snow. I don’t see anything wrong with being skeptical no more than I do with being overly optimistic. The back half of the winter is expected to be better. But if you want the pessimism to abate, then there needs to be visible signs of it within the medium that most people have access to. Until then, we just deal with a range of human emotions, and that ought to be ok. There is a reason to be optimistic about later on. It’ll just be good when it starts showing up.

Excessive pessimism and optimism both get really old after a while and leave you extremely vulnerable to making egregious errors in the interpretation of a forthcoming pattern, and it's this interpretation when viewed objectively & professionally, that's surprisingly is still superior to any one deterministic model solution. There are visible signs of one coming at least to me, HM, et al but I realize most people aren't familiar with phenomena at this frequency or aren't going to see any change until it's beyond obvious, snowing in their backyard, or is only a beneficial one.

The harsh reality is that the seeds were already being sewn for a pattern change sometime in January several weeks ago when the southern hemisphere polar vortex underwent a final warming event. This gave a massive jolt to the MJO in the Indian Ocean that eventually triggered the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming event in the Northern Hemisphere which was being preconditioned by active wave forcing from the troposphere this past fall & a low-level easterly QBO, coupled to a modest central Pacific NINO.

The evolution of this winter so far & going forward seems fairly monotonous to me for an El Nino. I've seen this script play out over, over & over again in the historical record, NC was fortunate enough to get a huge signing bonus for 2018-19 in early Dec. Hence, I'm not phased by the large amount of internal model variability going forward. Being in an El Nino isn't really that advantageous for cold/snow lovers in the SE US typically until late January & even the warmest NINO winters rarely avoid looking at least threatening in late January-February.

 

[1300m]

The amount of excessive pessimism and whining on here about this pattern lately is abhorrent & completely unnecessary. When you're living and dying by one or a few successive NWP runs (even though many don't want to admit it), even if it's an ensemble suite, & interpreting every long range modeled fantasy as something "worth watching" or a "threat", or exclaiming how the EPS or GEFS suite is "colder thru x-x date on x-x run" without actually understanding what's leading to the run-run changes or if they're actually significant, you're bound to end up disappointed & embarrassed. However, on the other end of the spectrum, you're interminably despondent and negative just because you don't want to be heartbroken or as a knee-jerk reaction to others that are living in their own world of denial that a storm is suddenly going to come knocking on their door in a few days, both lines of rationale will eventually come back to bite you.

Not to sound pompous or demeaning to the rest of the blog, but little has actually changed in the grand scheme of things in the last few weeks. I know I've mentioned many times on here that the favored window for cold/snow in +ENSO winters is late January-early March, & this year is really no different & is following the crowd in a general sense with obviously a huge blemish in early Dec for NC & VA.

It really shouldn't be news to anyone that mid-late January & February look more favorable than late Dec-early Jan for wintry weather in the Carolinas & the rest of the southeast.

You said what I've been thinking for quite some time. Thanks for taking one for the team lol.

 

[Webberweather53]

You said what I've been thinking for quite some time. Thanks for taking one for the team lol.

As usual we're on exactly the same page lol.

 

[1300m]

As usual we're on exactly the same page lol.

I actually think a lot of meteorologists are, but because the models are and have been so chaotic it is muddying people's perception of what was expected and somehow current model runs are being extrapolated to the end of winter already when in reality things are right on track at this point.

 

[Storm5]

As usual we're on exactly the same page lol.

I think I like y’alls old relationship better


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[pcbjr]

I think I like y’alls old relationship better


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think I like things that exceed the NC state line ...

 

[Tarheel1]

You're correct, it does not have to be super cold for snow storms. In fact, warm air must be around to allow moisture in the air to form those flakes. Some may not realize that there can be those "warm snow storms."

I just had one, they suck

 

[Tarheel1]

Two words to keep in your minds as we roll into January: Daughter vortexes!

 

[Kylo]

Excessive pessimism and optimism both get really old after a while and leave you extremely vulnerable to making egregious errors in the interpretation of a forthcoming pattern, and it's this interpretation when viewed objectively & professionally, that's surprisingly is still superior to any one deterministic model solution. There are visible signs of one coming at least to me, HM, et al but I realize most people aren't familiar with phenomena at this frequency or aren't going to see any change until it's beyond obvious, snowing in their backyard, or is only a beneficial one.

The harsh reality is that the seeds were already being sewn for a pattern change sometime in January several weeks ago when the southern hemisphere polar vortex underwent a final warming event. This gave a massive jolt to the MJO in the Indian Ocean that eventually triggered the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming event in the Northern Hemisphere which was being preconditioned by active wave forcing from the troposphere this past fall & a low-level easterly QBO, coupled to a modest central Pacific NINO.

The evolution of this winter so far & going forward seems fairly monotonous to me for an El Nino. I've seen this script play out over, over & over again in the historical record, NC was fortunate enough to get a huge signing bonus for 2018-19 in early Dec. Hence, I'm not phased by the large amount of internal model variability going forward. Being in an El Nino isn't really that advantageous for cold/snow lovers in the SE US typically until late January & even the warmest NINO winters rarely avoid looking at least threatening in late January-February.

I actually think a lot of meteorologists are, but because the models are and have been so chaotic it is muddying people's perception of what was expected and somehow current model runs are being extrapolated to the end of winter already when in reality things are right on track at this point.

Nino January's can be cold and in fact our best snowy nino's had BN January's, I think frustration is warranted. I think if we had BN temps coming up folks would be not as pessimistic. There isn't a lot of great analogs for AN Januarys that flip to cold and snowy (80/66)? Those are the ones I could find. Feb 07 was brutal cold but not snowy but would take my chances with that again.

But I totally get it...enso climatology says our best chances are in February so we have to suck it up for a month.

 

[ATLwxfan]

It’s currently 77 degrees at my current location and it feels amazing!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The trees outside my office are about to bud.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I think I like y’alls old relationship better


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You said what I couldn’t. Bless you

 

[ATLwxfan]

Nino January's can be cold and in fact our best snowy nino's had BN January's, I think frustration is warranted. I think if we had BN temps coming up folks would be not as pessimistic. There isn't a lot of great analogs for AN Januarys that flip to cold and snowy (80/66)? Those are the ones I could find. Feb 07 was brutal cold but not snowy but would take my chances with that again.

But I totally get it...enso climatology says our best chances are in February so we have to suck it up for a month.

View attachment 9796

I’m not sure I trust analogs much anymore. Climate change has altered the playing field.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[pcbjr]

I’m not sure I trust analogs much anymore. Climate change has altered the playing field.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Go back and look at the 1930's ...

 

[Kylo]

I’m not sure I trust analogs much anymore. Climate change has altered the playing field.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agee’s, I don’t like going back much past 1980. But, 03, 10 and 15 is reasonable.

 

[Rain Cold]

You're correct, it does not have to be super cold for snow storms. In fact, warm air must be around to allow moisture in the air to form those flakes. Some may not realize that there can be those "warm snow storms."

I totally get your first sentence, but I don’t understand much of the rest of it. I consider warm snowstorms rain.

 

[1300m]

I totally get your first sentence, but I don’t understand much of the rest of it. I consider warm snowstorms rain.

The sentiment is on the right track, but personally I think overall is actually missing the mark, especially in the south where getting a mechanism to deliver the sufficient cold air supply in the presence of WAA is not the norm. Because you need warm air advection to produce lift, condensation and precipitation, you have to have an adequate and consistent enough feed of cold/dry air to offset this intrusion of warm, moist air in the form of evaporational cooling and that requires some special circumstances at our latitudes.

 

[Webberweather53]

Nino January's can be cold and in fact our best snowy nino's had BN January's, I think frustration is warranted. I think if we had BN temps coming up folks would be not as pessimistic. There isn't a lot of great analogs for AN Januarys that flip to cold and snowy (80/66)? Those are the ones I could find. Feb 07 was brutal cold but not snowy but would take my chances with that again.

But I totally get it...enso climatology says our best chances are in February so we have to suck it up for a month.

View attachment 9796

I’m not sure I trust analogs much anymore. Climate change has altered the playing field.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agee’s, I don’t like going back much past 1980. But, 03, 10 and 15 is reasonable.

You can & should still use ancient analogs, you just have to know how to use them. Any signal you're trying to attain by using years in the past 30-40 years is more likely to be riddled with noise that has little or nothing to do w/ ENSO, than if you used all years because event-event variability is as large or larger than the basic state changes in the climate you're acknowledging by changing the analyzed subset of years. Studies by Garfinkel et al noted that a record of at least several hundred years length is required for ENSO-derived signals to be larger than internal variability! Adjusting ancient analogs to a modern climate period is one of the better ways to use them.

Climate change has altered some aspects of the circulation response to ENSO but most of its key features have resonated for hundreds-thousands of years in the Holocene & very likely will continue to do so long into the future.

Very few people or professional mets actually know what to do w/ ancient analogs, how to utilize them responsibly or understand the basic caveats associated with them, leading to instances over over and misuse like we see w/ JB et al, and on the other end of the spectrum, being overly critical of those who take advantage of them properly.

I regularly look at years in the late 19th & early-mid 20th century because while I know the climate has changed significantly since then, I also understand the modern observed record is far too short to capture most or even sizable portion of sub-interannual variability that's legitimately possible in our current climate and looking at data only after 1980 severely misrepresents extreme events that both have the biggest impact on society, yet occur w/ such finite regularity that a 30-40 year record is less likely to identify them at all.

Henceforth, not at least looking and grappling with some of the basic messages that ancient years "teach" you actually limits your capabilities as a forecaster/enthusiast, leads to an over-funneling of perceived, permissible modern weather/climate variance & will make you more apt to respond with excessive, blind fervor to extreme events when they do occur.

 

[Rain Cold]

Nino January's can be cold and in fact our best snowy nino's had BN January's, I think frustration is warranted. I think if we had BN temps coming up folks would be not as pessimistic. There isn't a lot of great analogs for AN Januarys that flip to cold and snowy (80/66)? Those are the ones I could find. Feb 07 was brutal cold but not snowy but would take my chances with that again.

But I totally get it...enso climatology says our best chances are in February so we have to suck it up for a month.

View attachment 9796

I kind of agree. And yeah, I think some frustration is warranted. Many of us wait all year long for winter to get here, and it sucks just a little bit when large chunks of it in a row are wasted waiting for the better pattern or period to arrive. Being disappointed by not getting wall to wall cold (which I agree is silly) is a different thing than being discouraged by a long period of warm weather, having only the hope of something that is supposed to happen actually happening. I think it will turn cold and wintry. At the same time, I’m disappointed that we are burning precious time waiting for it to show up. I believe we’ll get there.

 

[Jessy89]

Why isn’t there more cold air funneling down with a high this strong?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

The sentiment is on the right track, but personally I think overall is actually missing the mark, especially in the south where getting a mechanism to deliver the sufficient cold air supply in the presence of WAA is not the norm. Because you need warm air advection to produce lift, condensation and precipitation, you have to have an adequate and consistent enough feed of cold/dry air to offset this intrusion of warm, moist air in the form of evaporational cooling and that requires some special circumstances at our latitudes.

Yep, I gotcha on that. Thanks for the clear explanation. I was just having trouble with warm snowstorms. Terms like warm and cold get thrown around frequently, but they’re pretty subjective. You often hear that it’s too cold to snow. That’s not really true here. It’s just that the conditions that lead to bitter cold here are often unfavorable to producing snow, kind of like what you were saying.

 

[Webberweather53]

Nino January's can be cold and in fact our best snowy nino's had BN January's, I think frustration is warranted. I think if we had BN temps coming up folks would be not as pessimistic. There isn't a lot of great analogs for AN Januarys that flip to cold and snowy (80/66)? Those are the ones I could find. Feb 07 was brutal cold but not snowy but would take my chances with that again.

But I totally get it...enso climatology says our best chances are in February so we have to suck it up for a month.

View attachment 9796

Out of all NINOs since the turn of the 20th century, 1888-89, 1905-06, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1929-30, 1930-31, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2004-05, & 2006-07 had significantly warm Januarys and of this group 1991-92 is the only true "detestable" winter & even then it was largely thanks to the Pinatubo Eruption and NC barely missed getting a big dog in mid January.

Out of all these winters, I'd argue that 1888-89 had the biggest flip from January to February and of the few available records and reanalyses suggest a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred in January 1889, we eventually scored a big dog on February 20th-21st, 1889 with 10" at Raleigh, & about 8" in Charlotte.

 

[Webberweather53]

Out of all NINOs since the turn of the 20th century, 1888-89, 1905-06, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1929-30, 1930-31, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2004-05, & 2006-07 had significantly warm Januarys and of this group 1991-92 is the only true "detestable" winter & even then it was largely thanks to the Pinatubo Eruption and NC barely missed getting a big dog in mid January.

Out of all these winters, I'd argue that 1888-89 had the biggest flip from January to February and of the few available records and reanalyses suggest a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred in January 1889, we eventually scored a big dog on February 20th-21st, 1889 with 10" at Raleigh, & about 8" in Charlotte.
View attachment 9799


View attachment 9800

1951-52 had nearly wall-to-wall ridging in the southeastern US for most of the winter (ew), even this ugly NINO winter couldn't resist producing in February.

 

[WxWatch]

I totally get your first sentence, but I don’t understand much of the rest of it. I consider warm snowstorms rain.

This article talks talks about "warm snow storms." https://www.iweathernet.com/educational/weather-myths/too-warm-for-the-snow-to-stick

 

[Stormlover]

I’m not sure I trust analogs much anymore. Climate change has altered the playing field.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

oh brother....smh

 

[Kylo]

Out of all NINOs since the turn of the 20th century, 1888-89, 1905-06, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1929-30, 1930-31, 1951-52, 1953-54, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2004-05, & 2006-07 had significantly warm Januarys and of this group 1991-92 is the only true "detestable" winter & even then it was largely thanks to the Pinatubo Eruption and NC barely missed getting a big dog in mid January.

Out of all these winters, I'd argue that 1888-89 had the biggest flip from January to February and of the few available records and reanalyses suggest a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred in January 1889, we eventually scored a big dog on February 20th-21st, 1889 with 10" at Raleigh, & about 8" in Charlotte.
View attachment 9799


View attachment 9800

Be nice if esrl sites were up. Looks like 1914 and 1915 were both snowy too. Would love to see the Jan patterns in those and what they flipped too.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Where is all the talk about the snow and ice potential in TX and OK this week ? The western part of the south needs some attention too !

 

[EastAtlwx]

oh brother....smh

Not really sure why your Smh’ing.. were clearly in a warmer background state. To deny this is pure ignorance. The data and research is abundant and easily accessible..