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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
That sound you hear is my driver hitting golf balls
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you mean that whiffing sound? lol
 
GFS showing a glimmer of hope for TX OK and AR. Starting to look like a Fayetteville spcl
 
Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Check out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
 
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GaWx said:
Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Cehck out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
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Looks great! Eastern Canada is looking cold. Good signs to get it cold here too with the trough orientation. Let’s see if we can get that look to hold or improve for a couple of days...
 
GaWx said:
Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Check out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
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I like the look post D10 and onward. Now usually I would favor the eps but not right now. I think the GEFS is doing a better job overall.
 
Interesting system for the mid Atlantic on the GFS and Euro that has seemed to pop from nowhere near Day 9.

a7451bf747c7cc4b97160c8d91917fd3.jpg


The ensemble means increased over NC on both models. Still far out enough for the modeling to have drastic changes, like the euro overnight. But the overall track looks like a MA/NE threat.

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Well, maybe 2019 will flip this (though nothing is suggestive) ...

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Anyways, have a great day and nice rest of the year ... :cool:
 
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42

This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
 
packfan98 said:
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42

This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
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The GEFS/GFS has been pretty good with the MJO forecast from past couple of weeks, much better than EPS. I hope that explains the large differences as GEFS has it slow rolling ph7 and EPS, as of yesterday, has it diving into COD. The GEFS runs were great overnight and the EPS took step backwards from it's 12z run yesterday.

operdyn_verif8D_full.gif
 
Jon said:
Interesting system for the mid Atlantic on the GFS and Euro that has seemed to pop from nowhere near Day 9.

a7451bf747c7cc4b97160c8d91917fd3.jpg


The ensemble means increased over NC on both models. Still far out enough for the modeling to have drastic changes, like the euro overnight. But the overall track looks like a MA/NE threat.

722ccd2d2af5fd6d62602c9205b664d8.gif




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I'll chase that one because they normally get the big ones. Plus I'll be on vacation
 
It's no wonder EPS looks so different, has MJO heading back over towards warm phases (4-5). EPS has one member that is like the GEFS (ph7)

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42

This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
Click to expand...

Good point as its been the wrecking ball for the past week or so. Fingers crossed.
 
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
 
GaWx said:
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
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Not surprised at all by this.


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GaWx said:
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
Click to expand...
So the GEFS has been much better with the MJO forecast but horrible with how this effects the upcoming pattern, while the EPS has been horrible with the MJO forecast but better with the upcoming pattern? Or both just plain suck right now? Do models actually "factor" in (for lack of better term) the MJO progression into how the pattern will evolve? Stupid questions? Probably but honestly I had to step away for a couple of days because reading this place was depressing lol and I'm just a wannabe :)
 
WxWatch said:
Glory setting up on 12z CMC? Maybe so.
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Possibly but if I had a dollar for every time the CMC set up for glory I'd have enough money to build a mansion on 20' pylons at the beach to protect it from all of the CMC hurricanes I'd also received....
 
Well, doesn't look like there will be any threats here this week. Maybe we can get something the weekend of the 11th.
 
GaWx said:
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"

"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
Click to expand...

Great read...thanks for sharing! We went through this last Feb. Models, kept showing better patterns by last week of Feb, then end of Feb, then it was first week of March. It did come, 2nd week of March. We haven’t even reached the EPS fantasy stage yet. We need the EPS/GEFS to both agree on a day 10+ pattern that looks good, then we add 7-10 days to that before it verifies and we feel the effects. Assuming it comes.
 
Kylo said:
Great read...thanks for sharing! We went through this last Feb. Models, kept showing better patterns by last week of Feb, then end of Feb, then it was first week of March. It did come, 2nd week of March. We haven’t even reached the EPS fantasy stage yet. We need the EPS/GEFS to both agree on a day 10+ pattern that looks good, then we add 7-10 days to that before it verifies and we feel the effects. Assuming it comes.
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Idk about you but I’m still hugging that EPS 1,000hr fantasy snow map from last week
 
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