Stormlover
Member
you mean that whiffing sound? lolThat sound you hear is my driver hitting golf balls![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
you mean that whiffing sound? lolThat sound you hear is my driver hitting golf balls![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GFS showing a glimmer of hope for TX OK and AR. Starting to look like a Fayetteville spcl
Looks great! Eastern Canada is looking cold. Good signs to get it cold here too with the trough orientation. Let’s see if we can get that look to hold or improve for a couple of days...Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Cehck out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
I like the look post D10 and onward. Now usually I would favor the eps but not right now. I think the GEFS is doing a better job overall.Wow, is the GEFS drunk? Another much improved run at 0Z! Below normal temps start in SE 1/9 now. What happened? Check out the western NA ridging building higher and higher! Even better than 18Z.
![]()
GFS has a little +NAO bias there....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Agree .... When it comes to the unknown MJO propagation, the GFS ensembles are the path of least regret. I don't even look at the Euro in times like these.I like the look post D10 and onward. Now usually I would favor the eps but not right now. I think the GEFS is doing a better job overall.
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42
This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
I'll chase that one because they normally get the big ones. Plus I'll be on vacationInteresting system for the mid Atlantic on the GFS and Euro that has seemed to pop from nowhere near Day 9.
![]()
The ensemble means increased over NC on both models. Still far out enough for the modeling to have drastic changes, like the euro overnight. But the overall track looks like a MA/NE threat.
![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I wouldn’t put much faith on any model past day 5... it’s that simple ....I'll chase that one because they normally get the big ones. Plus I'll be on vacation
Yeah your right about, that's very trueI wouldn’t put much faith on any model past day 5... it’s that simple ....
I wouldn’t put much faith on any model past day 5... it’s that simple ....
Last 3 Days of the SOI:
15.98
6.64
-0.42
This is a pretty fast drop. If it can stay negative for a while, it will help usher in some of the changes we want. Usually there's about a 10 day lag time. I see no reason not to have the middle of January circled for a better, more winter-like, pattern.
EPS has her heading towards cod...It's no wonder EPS looks so different, has MJO heading back over towards warm phases (4-5). EPS has one member that is like the GEFS (ph7)
View attachment 9781
EPS has her heading towards cod...
Left side, COD, statistically can work wonders for most of us ...Which is good news actually according to Larry’s stats
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"
"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
So the GEFS has been much better with the MJO forecast but horrible with how this effects the upcoming pattern, while the EPS has been horrible with the MJO forecast but better with the upcoming pattern? Or both just plain suck right now? Do models actually "factor" in (for lack of better term) the MJO progression into how the pattern will evolve? Stupid questions? Probably but honestly I had to step away for a couple of days because reading this place was depressing lol and I'm just a wannabeFrom Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"
"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
Possibly but if I had a dollar for every time the CMC set up for glory I'd have enough money to build a mansion on 20' pylons at the beach to protect it from all of the CMC hurricanes I'd also received....Glory setting up on 12z CMC? Maybe so.![]()
Just slight differences.....Nice storm for Boston in the 8th-10th period on the 12z gfs .....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wave enters SoCal and exits Delaware. Not likely..Nice storm for Boston in the 8th-10th period on the 12z gfs .....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
From Radiant mets this morning talking about recent GEFS cold bias in 11-15:
"Cold GFS in 11-15 Day Not Progressing Forward Well"
"As discussed in the section above, the GFS Ensemble is notably colder than both the Euro Ensemble and our forecast, coming in +40 GWHDDs vs our forecast and +29.8 vs. Euro for the next fifteen days. In part, we lean toward the warmer Euro given warmer forecast trends in the last several days as well as historical model skill. However, it is also worth noting that the colder outlook shown by the GFS in the 11-15 Day is strikingly similar to what the model was showing for the current 6-10 Day period when it was 11-15 Days out. The composite maps above show the nearly-identical current 11-15 Day projection and the 11-15 Day projection from five days ago (for current 6-10 Day), and although the model is still notably colder than our forecast it has been trending much warmer over the last five days. Though not shown, the 500 mb height trends have also been similar with the current GFS Ensemble 11-15 Day projection showing ridging into western Canada/Alaska, a feature also shown in the 11-15 Day from five days ago which has not progressed forward."
AgreedWave enters SoCal and exits Delaware. Not likely..
Idk about you but I’m still hugging that EPS 1,000hr fantasy snow map from last weekGreat read...thanks for sharing! We went through this last Feb. Models, kept showing better patterns by last week of Feb, then end of Feb, then it was first week of March. It did come, 2nd week of March. We haven’t even reached the EPS fantasy stage yet. We need the EPS/GEFS to both agree on a day 10+ pattern that looks good, then we add 7-10 days to that before it verifies and we feel the effects. Assuming it comes.