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Pattern Jammin' January

Jon said:
Anyone want e12?

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I would trade everything Storm normally offers to trade and then some.


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PEA_RIDGE said:
IM AT WORK . WE HAVE TO TYPE IN ALL CAPS IN DISPATCH @ 9-1-1
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Gotcha! You get priority posting when a winter storm finally shows up. I don’t want to see “blizzard warning”. I mean, I want to see BLIZZARD WARNING, SAVE YOURSELVES!” ?
 
The CFSv2 is probably the best of any modeling for the pattern for January. Yeah, it's not cold but it shows aleutian low and ridging in central/western Canada. The low heights over the pole is anti cold but it is what it is.
Screen Shot 2018-12-30 at 8.45.14 AM.pngScreen Shot 2018-12-30 at 8.45.26 AM.png
 
What is being modeled isn’t pretty and I don’t think they are going to change anytime soon.


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For those of us with a chance for seeing some wintry precip mid-to-late week with the upper low, the main shortwave is moving into Washington state now so should be fully sampled for today's 12z runs.
 
2007 is a curious analog, AN normal through end of January with dramatic flip. It's popped up on CPC analogs too. Didn't produce much snow across the east as it was dry.
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cyclogent said:
For those of us with a chance for seeing some wintry precip mid-to-late week with the upper low, the main shortwave is moving into Washington state now so should be fully sampled for today's 12z runs.
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There should be a thread for this, it affects posters on this forum and good ensemble agreement and it's inside day 5. You should fire it up.

For such a hostile pattern it's great that there is a threat to track for some.

GEFS Ensembles United States Snowfall 192.png14-km EPS Probability Precip Snow United States Snowfall 192.png
 
Kylo said:
My sentiments when I woke up too but was hoping to pretend the EPS didn't run last night.

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Luckily for us, EPS has been horrible especially at day 15. You can’t trust a full conus ridge with positive heights moving into Greenland and a GOA low/Aleutians low. You change the Greenland +heights to a trough and we can believe this...I’ll gladly eat crow if that verifies as depicted.





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Rain Cold said:
Is that the deluxe stratospheric AO or the regular one?
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Hah...it's the one that counts for us. But as Jon talked about above the EPS looks really bad but can it be trusted. We still have no agreement on the MJO forecasts from these models. Until that happens we won't be able to trust either one. But compare the day 15 EPS/ GEFS. The GEFS is better, you can visualize how that could evolve into a colder pattern later in Jan/Feb. But the EPS is turn the lights out on winter...if it's correct.

14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 360.pngGEFS Ensembles undefined undefined 354.png
 
Can someone explain to me what is wrong with this map and what’s causing a giant ridge in the states?
Trough in the pacific, ridge in the west. Why wouldn’t there be a trough in the east? Western ridge too Far East? Ridge not close enough to Greenland? In the next couple of frames the little bitty trough up in the NE peters out and the two ridges connect. ???9130B684-E750-41DE-913A-4B7FCDF9C473.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Can someone explain to me what is wrong with this map and what’s causing a giant ridge in the states?
Trough in the pacific, ridge in the west. Why wouldn’t there be a trough in the east? Western ridge too Far East? Ridge not close enough to Greenland? In the next couple of frames the little bitty trough up in the NE peters out and the two ridges connect. ???View attachment 9749
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We don't want a trough down in GOA, that close to the west coast, nor low heights over AK. We need the low to pull back west of AK. Here is a nice visualization of pac low retrograding west with eastern trough developing. The end of the GEFS does show the pac low consolidating and pulling back west but it has been doing that for about week now. The EPS doesn't show this at all.
retro.gif
 
Kylo said:
Hah...it's the one that counts for us. But as Jon talked about above the EPS looks really bad but can it be trusted. We still have no agreement on the MJO forecasts from these models. Until that happens we won't be able to trust either one. But compare the day 15 EPS/ GEFS. The GEFS is better, you can visualize how that could evolve into a colder pattern later in Jan/Feb. But the EPS is turn the lights out on winter...if it's correct.

View attachment 9750View attachment 9751
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This is what I’d expect if we get a death ridge for Jan 14th...

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Verification scores ranked recently for Day 10 in all modeling and it’s also surprising to see the Euro did as worse at Day 10, hitting 0.1 correlation for North Hemisphere 500mb heights. The Canadian beat out the Euro and GFS, FV3 as well.

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If they’re that bad, imagine what the scores for Day 15 look like? Also 15 day ensemble would be slightly better scores you’d imagine but maybe not, given how it’s generated it relies on the OP being somewhat close to reality.


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As Jon pointed out earlier what the ensembles are showing seems strange, could be how they “smooth out” everything or they are just seeing a pattern where all of North America will be warm other than Alaska, which does not make much sense to me. Expect a lot of confusion and changes until the models get some grasp on the MJO, if ever.
 
Jon said:
This is what I’d expect if we get a death ridge for Jan 14th...

6376a922dbfaacb312d52ffcae757e37.jpg


Verification scores ranked recently for Day 10 in all modeling and it’s also surprising to see the Euro did as worse at Day 10, hitting 0.1 correlation for North Hemisphere 500mb heights. The Canadian beat out the Euro and GFS, FV3 as well.

cfedfb174f25faf9c5976b580a08b180.jpg


If they’re that bad, imagine what the scores for Day 15 look like? Also 15 day ensemble would be slightly better scores you’d imagine but maybe not, given how it’s generated it relies on the OP being somewhat close to reality.


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I agree with you. The ensembles probably are wrong past day 10 but the past couple of weeks they have been wrong for showing a potential return to cold, it ends up verifying worse for us. But, that makes sense with MJO and +SOI. We keep hoping the MJO will go into phase 7-1 and we see a response. I don't think we are going to wake up one day and see the modeling flip to cold in the 6-10, eventually we will see days 12+ on the EPS/GEFS return to cold and it be correct. I sure hope its by mid-January we start to see that.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Can someone explain to me what is wrong with this map and what’s causing a giant ridge in the states?
Trough in the pacific, ridge in the west. Why wouldn’t there be a trough in the east? Western ridge too Far East? Ridge not close enough to Greenland? In the next couple of frames the little bitty trough up in the NE peters out and the two ridges connect. ???View attachment 9749
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There's actually a weak trough that extends down into the SE on that map but the 500 mb heights are still slightly above the 30 year normal thus keeping light reds in the SE. Example: Despite a trough being present, 570 dm at Charlotte is +6 vs the 30 year normal (average) of 564 dm there.

*Corrected: I meant dm rather than mb.
 
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