More precisely, the longest strong Nov-Mar phase 5 on record is only 8 days (1/1990) and we’re headed to 14+!
Some tweets about this today too. I think people are seeing what is going on and now see that it’s going to be awhile. Gone are the thoughts of epic cold eastern winter. Dec 1994 has similar MJO progression and of course blow torched. It took a couple of weeks after leaving phase 5 before a return to cold occurred. But, phase 6 ain’t great either so could be longer this go around.
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Well, I am not shocked that 18z didn’t have the threat either. It works off the 12z data. Let’s just see what the 0z runs says. If it stays course then I would be worried.Last 2 runs the Gfs and fv3 just vanish the snow, quick change.
Toss this to garbage, banter or ban me, but ...If it stays course then I would be worried.
Just looking at the last 15 years, it most likely won’t take more than 14 days after leaving phase 5 to get over to 8. However, it took 3 weeks in 2013 and 2.5 weeks both in 2008 and 2003-2004.
I went further back and found it also took 2.5 weeks in 2001, 1999, 1985, and 1981. The alltime longest was a whopping near 4 weeks in 1995. Upon further review, I’d say patience is needed as it taking 2.5 weeks from when it leaves phase 5 to when it reaches phase 8 is very realistic based on there having been 8 cases taking at least 2.5 weeks since 1975. That would be near Jan 17 IF it were to take 2.5 weeks though each phase is better than the preceding one with phase 7 itself often being a pretty good one. Phase 7 would obviously be reached sooner.
One thing to note, however, is that none of these 8 cases was during El Niño. So, perhaps that means it should take no longer than 2 weeks. That would be near 1/14-15.
????Toss this to garbage, banter or ban me, but ...
It's stayed the course for 6, 7, 8 ... days now ...
...and no one but Larry (@GaWx) is more optimistic than I (and he and I both have good cause to look at every glass half full way down here) ...
Best!
Your Curmudgeon ...![]()
????
Your funny, I had a good laugh at your post. I trend to look at things in a positive way also. Because if you think negative and say bad things will happen. Sometime it tends to come true. My better half (wife) taught me that. But, I have always have positive outlook even in the bleakest moments of things. ?
Also people should consider moving up to Minnesota if you want to see snow every year.
Going to be a lot of disappointed people down here if they think it’s going to snow every year. ?
Sincerely,
Patrick
We will see. You still have that post of mine queued up where I said the first half of January was toast
Just a reminder on how long MJO lags can take. Smart people are tweeting it could take longer this time.
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-deal-or-no-deal.461/post-132076
Yep, I got the quote. You said that things wouldn't turn until sometime in February. We'll see....Deep breaths, everything will be OK. Nobody cancelled anything, we are just discussing weather. I gave my option, backed it up with some analogs. There are other factors pointing to a prolonged warmup. MJO, SOI.
If you disagree and think we flip in January then spell it out. Would love to hear it, you might be correct.
People need to chill out if someone posts something they may disagree with. This is a weather forum to discuss weather. R E L A X
Yep, I got the quote. You said that things wouldn't turn until sometime in February. We'll see....
I start my vacation Tuesday, I'm thinking that I need to do a little chasing on my vacation if next week storm does well for NW MS. Just desperate and snow starved
Well I'm going to be dead wrong on the pattern change to colder as we begin January. Its just not happening. Instead, most of North America, including us in the South, are going to start turning warmer and warmer as we go through the first couple weeks of January. Meanwhile Europe to Russia will likely turn bitter cold. The raging Pacific Jet and zonal west to east flow will keep the cold bottled way up for quite a while. We may have a couple slight cool down, esp. when there's a north wind, or lots of cloud coverage, but when it's sunny-it will be quite warm. Just no Arctic air, or anything close to that, in sight for much of the Nation for a while.I don’t do Facebook. How bad is it?
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Good luck, I will be rooting for you.
I think your response was you would bump my post when we are freezing our butts off in January.
Brrrr...
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they just haven't changed their forecast yet but I'm sure they will.View attachment 9715
What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?
I believe the discussion pointed to the SSW.View attachment 9715
What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?
Why? that is from the 12th on, not the next two weeks.they just haven't changed their forecast yet but I'm sure they will.
I'm just being pessimistic. sorry.Why? that is from the 12th on, not the next two weeks.
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What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?
Anyone want e12?
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E12 looks like a January 2011 redux. GSP/ATL scores big while RDU gets the shaft. A lot of promise on the ensembles despite the bleak operational runs.Anyone want e12?
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That’s a strong high pressure in Colorado. 1050 wonder if that could happen.
I believe the discussion pointed to the SSW.
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