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Pattern Jammin' January

Last 2 runs the Gfs and fv3 just vanish the snow, quick change.
 
GaWx said:
More precisely, the longest strong Nov-Mar phase 5 on record is only 8 days (1/1990) and we’re headed to 14+!
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Some tweets about this today too. I think people are seeing what is going on and now see that it’s going to be awhile. Gone are the thoughts of epic cold eastern winter. Dec 1994 has similar MJO progression and of course blow torched. It took a couple of weeks after leaving phase 5 before a return to cold occurred. But, phase 6 ain’t great either so could be longer this go around.

B0A5E8B3-9D92-4BAF-ACFC-18DF3A12BED7.gif
 
Kylo said:
Some tweets about this today too. I think people are seeing what is going on and now see that it’s going to be awhile. Gone are the thoughts of epic cold eastern winter. Dec 1994 has similar MJO progression and of course blow torched. It took a couple of weeks after leaving phase 5 before a return to cold occurred. But, phase 6 ain’t great either so could be longer this go around.

View attachment 9710
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Just looking at the last 15 years, it most likely won’t take more than 14 days after leaving phase 5 to get over to 8. However, it took 3 weeks in 2013 and 2.5 weeks both in 2008 and 2003-2004.
 
18z gefs
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Seems a lot of punting of January and we are sitting here in December still. I understand the wringing of hands, I really do but all most of us need is one good anomalous event to hit our yearly averages in most cases down here. Long way until I start worrying about January "busting".

I hope all of you have a blessed New Year and for tonight, Roll Tide!!!
 
accu35 said:
Last 2 runs the Gfs and fv3 just vanish the snow, quick change.
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Well, I am not shocked that 18z didn’t have the threat either. It works off the 12z data. Let’s just see what the 0z runs says. If it stays course then I would be worried.
 
DarkKnight said:
If it stays course then I would be worried.
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Toss this to garbage, banter or ban me, but ...
It's stayed the course for 6, 7, 8 ... days now ...
...and no one but Larry (@GaWx) is more optimistic than I (and he and I both have good cause to look at every glass half full way down here) ...
Best!
Your Curmudgeon ... :mad:
 
GaWx said:
Just looking at the last 15 years, it most likely won’t take more than 14 days after leaving phase 5 to get over to 8. However, it took 3 weeks in 2013 and 2.5 weeks both in 2008 and 2003-2004.
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I went further back and found it also took 2.5 weeks in 2001, 1999, 1985, and 1981. The alltime longest was a whopping near 4 weeks in 1995. Upon further review, I’d say patience is needed as it taking 2.5 weeks from when it leaves phase 5 to when it reaches phase 8 is very realistic based on there having been 8 cases taking at least 2.5 weeks since 1975. That would be near Jan 17 IF it were to take 2.5 weeks though each phase is better than the preceding one with phase 7 itself often being a pretty good one. Phase 7 would obviously be reached sooner.

One thing to note, however, is that none of these 8 cases was during El Niño. So, perhaps that means it should take no longer than 2 weeks. That would be near 1/14-15.
 
GaWx said:
I went further back and found it also took 2.5 weeks in 2001, 1999, 1985, and 1981. The alltime longest was a whopping near 4 weeks in 1995. Upon further review, I’d say patience is needed as it taking 2.5 weeks from when it leaves phase 5 to when it reaches phase 8 is very realistic based on there having been 8 cases taking at least 2.5 weeks since 1975. That would be near Jan 17 IF it were to take 2.5 weeks though each phase is better than the preceding one with phase 7 itself often being a pretty good one. Phase 7 would obviously be reached sooner.

One thing to note, however, is that none of these 8 cases was during El Niño. So, perhaps that means it should take no longer than 2 weeks. That would be near 1/14-15.
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How's about 3/4 full, even if it's damn near empty, Larry ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Toss this to garbage, banter or ban me, but ...
It's stayed the course for 6, 7, 8 ... days now ...
...and no one but Larry (@GaWx) is more optimistic than I (and he and I both have good cause to look at every glass half full way down here) ...
Best!
Your Curmudgeon ... :mad:
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????
Your funny, I had a good laugh at your post. I trend to look at things in a positive way also. Because if you think negative and say bad things it will happen. Sometime it tends to come true. My better half (wife) taught me that. But, I have always have positive outlook even in the bleakest moments of things. ?
Also people should consider moving up to Minnesota if you want to see snow every year.
Going to be a lot of disappointed people down here if they think it’s going to snow every year. ?
Sincerely,
Patrick
 
DarkKnight said:
????
Your funny, I had a good laugh at your post. I trend to look at things in a positive way also. Because if you think negative and say bad things will happen. Sometime it tends to come true. My better half (wife) taught me that. But, I have always have positive outlook even in the bleakest moments of things. ?
Also people should consider moving up to Minnesota if you want to see snow every year.
Going to be a lot of disappointed people down here if they think it’s going to snow every year. ?
Sincerely,
Patrick
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:);):cool::p ... :cool::cool::cool::cool:
 
Stormlover said:
Ugh
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Kudos to Robert for being realistic about the first 10+ days of January. That’s refreshing and makes him more believable when he forecasts cold/wintry.

Also, he said he was wrong instead of saying delayed but not denied like JB does so often. That helps his credibility.
 
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Kylo said:
We will see. You still have that post of mine queued up where I said the first half of January was toast :)

Just a reminder on how long MJO lags can take. Smart people are tweeting it could take longer this time.

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-deal-or-no-deal.461/post-132076
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Kylo said:
Deep breaths, everything will be OK. Nobody cancelled anything, we are just discussing weather. I gave my option, backed it up with some analogs. There are other factors pointing to a prolonged warmup. MJO, SOI.

If you disagree and think we flip in January then spell it out. Would love to hear it, you might be correct.

People need to chill out if someone posts something they may disagree with. This is a weather forum to discuss weather. R E L A X
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Yep, I got the quote. You said that things wouldn't turn until sometime in February. We'll see....
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Yep, I got the quote. You said that things wouldn't turn until sometime in February. We'll see....
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I’m quite disappointed in the model consensus cold teases these last three weeks and especially this week’s tease about the 1st 10 days of Jan. I even made some fairly rare negative posts due to my frustration about losing most of the first half of Jan. However, I still am holding out hope that from about 1/14 on that cold will dominate the SE US since by then the MJO will almost surely at least be in phase 7. Maybe also the SOI will finally go back to negative. As bad as it has turned for early Jan, it can turn back the other way on a dime. Also, by then, hopefully we’ll have sn entrenched -AO finally returning, which the GEFS is hinting at.
 
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Yep, I got the quote. You said that things wouldn't turn until sometime in February. We'll see....
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Good luck, I will be rooting for you.

I think your response was you would bump my post when we are freezing our butts off in January.

Brrrr...

5B5BC1F5-032D-40B0-8440-7DB07E73D8EC.png
 
I start my vacation Tuesday, I'm thinking that I need to do a little chasing on my vacation if next week storm does well for NW MS. Just desperate and snow starved
 
NoSnowATL said:
I don’t do Facebook. How bad is it?


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Well I'm going to be dead wrong on the pattern change to colder as we begin January. Its just not happening. Instead, most of North America, including us in the South, are going to start turning warmer and warmer as we go through the first couple weeks of January. Meanwhile Europe to Russia will likely turn bitter cold. The raging Pacific Jet and zonal west to east flow will keep the cold bottled way up for quite a while. We may have a couple slight cool down, esp. when there's a north wind, or lots of cloud coverage, but when it's sunny-it will be quite warm. Just no Arctic air, or anything close to that, in sight for much of the Nation for a while.
Image day 10 of ensemble pattern. Lots of Pacific storms running west to east across the nation, with mild air.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
View attachment 9715
What is NOAA seeing that would lead them to go cold for the last half of January?
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Well that map is saying there is a 55% chance of being BN and 45% chance of EQ or AN. Makes sense, I could see last part of Jan being slightly BN with seasonal temps and above normal rainfall for the SE. What did they show for precip weeks 3-4.
 
SD said:
I believe the discussion pointed to the SSW.

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Which is peculiar because the SSW solution leading to cold in the east is just one possible outcome.


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