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Pattern Jammin' January

Good thread from HM tonight. Thinks once in MJO phase 7-8 we will get a flip to cold over conus like 1994-95 but it will somewhat lag even after we enter phase 7. So after I read this thread, I believe his thoughts are a pattern change being entrenched late Jan, which seems consensus anyway (mid to late Jan)...



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Do winters exist where there is virtually no northern stream? Only arctic highs dropping down with an active STJ? I guess we need energy from the north to deliver the cold airmass? It’s late. Just thought I would stick my foot in my mouth one more time before bed
 
GEFS was much worse at 00z. If you want to challenge this statement you can go to TT and look for yourself
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Do winters exist where there is virtually no northern stream? Only arctic highs dropping down with an active STJ? I guess we need energy from the north to deliver the cold airmass? It’s late. Just thought I would stick my foot in my mouth one more time before bed
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Yeah. Back in the day we used to have very strong HPs and have to worry about suppression with a lot of systems. That seems more rare these days for some reason. I also miss tracking a triple phaser or phasing in general with multiple waves...seems like if we get a phase now its with the northern stream and a s/w and that occurs much later...Meh, forecasting was much more fun 5-10 years ago lol


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The acceleration of the Brewer Dobson Circulation due to the Stratospheric Warming event in the northern hemisphere is cooling the tropical stratosphere down to the tropopause which will likely have some impact on the MJO going forward.
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06z gefs
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I still believe/hope. I think this looks impressive and you start see winds reverse at lower levels. Not only that, but reinforced at day 8-10 at upper levels. I am not patient so yeah, going to suck waiting to see if it (HLB) happens.

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We have seen the GEFS model the AO negative the past week or so in the extended only to back off. The EPS isn't enthused, yet. But, got to start somewhere. Hopefully by the first week or two of January the EPS starts to show signs for end of January.

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All 4 GFS runs show virtually the same pattern at hour 384 as hour 0. I hope the back portion of winter pays off.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Not a good setup for ATL or Bham but great for parts of MS and TN. It seems these setups tend to trend for the worse.


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Yeah it’s a much better setup for northern miss, eastern Arkansas, northern LA , tenn and the northern part of Alabama near the tenn line vs areas to the east


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Rain Cold said:
All 4 GFS runs show virtually the same pattern at hour 384 as hour 0. I hope the back portion of winter pays off.
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Well the GEFS do look better at the end of the run. The EPS still are really bad end to end.

But yeah, the first 10-15 days of January look to be AN. And it sure doesn’t look like we are on the cusp of a flip by the 15th either.

Sucks having to resort to end of ensemble runs for hope. But, long ways until mid March.
 
At hr 120 there’s slightly more cold air push into nc. Then on previous runs


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Kylo said:
Well the GEFS do look better at the end of the run. The EPS still are really bad end to end.

But yeah, the first 10-15 days of January look to be AN. And it sure doesn’t look like we are on the cusp of a flip by the 15th either.

Sucks having to resort to end of ensemble runs for hope. But, long ways until mid March.
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Earlier this week the GEFS was showing a big ridge out west and an undeniable trough in the east starting around hr200. It showed it for a couple days only to completely flip and push that ridge back east making the eastern trough go *poof*. I mean eventually we have to have a sh*t pattern showing up on the ensembles only to have it flip for the better inside hr200. This barn burner can’t last forever
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Earlier this week the GEFS was showing a big ridge out west and an undeniable trough in the east starting around hr200. It showed it for a couple days only to completely flip and push that ridge back east making the eastern trough go *poof*. I mean eventually we have to have a sh*t pattern showing up on the ensembles only to have it flip for the better inside hr200. This barn burner can’t last forever
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It can last, we have had plenty of winters where day 10+ ensembles showed favorable pattern only to never come. We are well on our way to this being the 4th AN winter in a row. It just wants to be warm right now. But, we have had winter storms during that time too.

I have been thinking for the past couple of weeks sometime after Jan 20th. Now, I am thinking early Feb. I know people will come stampeding in to say, ‘what, how can you punt January”. The EPS isn’t close at all... the pacific, the Atlantic and Arctic are all a mess. Usually takes weeks to fix something like that.

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The great weeklies from 2 days ago has already busted.

I don’t come on here hoping for warmth, I want snow/cold just as much as anyone. Just frustrated.

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IMHO we need an ULL since we have very little cold air to work with.

OT note.... I have to give kudos to the GFS and GEFS on the MJO forecast. To me, it’s beating the tar out of the euro and eps. Btw, if the GEFS and some gfs runs are right with it... we are not looking to good for at least the next 2 weeks. Ugh!!
 
Kylo said:
It can last, we have had plenty of winters where day 10+ ensembles showed favorable pattern only to never come. We are well on our way to this being the 4th AN winter in a row. It just wants to be warm right now. But, we have had winter storms during that time too.

I have been thinking for the past couple of weeks sometime after Jan 20th. Now, I am thinking early Feb. I know people will come stampeding in to say, ‘what, how can you punt January”. The EPS isn’t close at all... the pacific, the Atlantic and Arctic are all a mess. Usually takes weeks to fix something like that.

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I know an AN Alaska is a symptom of what’s going on behind the curtain but until that happens I don’t see how we get cold air anywhere near East coast. AK seems to be dominated by low after low atm. It won’t be easy to change that. Someone somewhere in the world is seeing a great pattern. Not so much for posters on this forum
 
Doesn't look good right now. I should be happy with the last storm. It just seems it is too much to ask for more than one good storm here a winter.
 
Storm5 said:
No one would be complaining if the cmc verified which we all know won’t happen. This sure isn’t a warm look in the 8-10 day period . Too bad it’s the cmc
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GEPS trying to hold serve for Day 10
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Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



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Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



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Seems like we’ve been hearing this since early December, and here we are , still looking for it!?
 
Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



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Yeah, Plenty of time for Day 10-15 to workout. Nice run. Cross polar flow, ++heights near Greenland while not a true block, the trough has little wiggle room and has no choice but to dig east, especially with the pacific low jogging west slightly...the ridge would orient more west. Models struggling with mid month for sure.


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