• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

This phases you are going to have a whopper of a OhV and interior northeast major winter storm.

500mb_geopotential_height_cyclonic_vorticity_CONUS_hr138.png
 
The latest EPS and GEFS have no more than about two cold days over the SE through midmonth. At one point runs early in the week had cold for most of early Jan. So, assuming models are right, we’ve lost the 1st half of Jan and can’t trust any current day 15-16 maps that hint at a colder change soon after. Heck, the models were first hinting at a colder pattern change starting ~12/23 as of 12/10 runs and look where we are now. So, we can only hope that this finally occurs 2nd half of Jan. The 0Z GEFS does have -AO as we head into mid Jan but it has had a -AO bias of about -.50.
Regardless, JB/Pioneer DJF historic SE cold chances of verifying going down which each passing day of delay in cold pattern change. Now he’s referring to the coldest change from Dec to Jan in the SE history, 1985.
 
These aren't earth shattering but are moving in the right direction.
18cf9d2d45c8b6908d1b1f48a34595c0.jpg
60ba51046ecf743e0faee781f48adb6b.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
The latest EPS and GEFS have no more than about two cold days over the SE through midmonth. At one point runs early in the week had cold for most of early Jan. So, assuming models are right, we’ve lost the 1st half of Jan and can’t trust any current day 15-16 maps that hint at a colder change soon after. Heck, the models were first hinting at a colder pattern change starting ~12/23 as of 12/10 runs and look where we are now. So, we can only hope that this finally occurs 2nd half of Jan. The 0Z GEFS does have -AO as we head into mid Jan but it has had a -AO bias of about -.50.
Regardless, JB/Pioneer DJF historic SE cold chances of verifying going down which each passing day of delay in cold pattern change. Now he’s referring to the coldest change from Dec to Jan in the SE history, 1985.
Click to expand...

Assuming the models are right is a big assumption Larry! They’ve been crap as of late I’m not sure they get their act together suddenly...hopefully we can salvage the 10-15 day, I’m not jumping yet....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ptree City's point forecast for Thur night is 33 and rain. That's close enough for me any winter. Just because the models don't show a huge winter storm for the deep south doesn't mean it can't happen. After all my years of watching winters disappoint, my criteria for getting interested are a lot less stringent than most of ya'll, lol. And old boundary, cold close by, impulses kicking out of the southwest...that's enough for me. Since most winters I don't see anything anyway, getting close is exciting. Maybe you just have to be old, and used to heart break, to take what you can get. Torch, or not, if it's 33 and rain is forecast, it's worth watching, just in case. Most of my good storms are "just in case" storms anyway. I live in the deep south where it usually won't happen no matter what any models says, or doesn't say. If it's 33 and may rain, you go outside and look, just in case, you don't look at no damn model and ----- because it's not in the 20's.
 
Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



View attachment 9690
Click to expand...

Not going to fall for this again. The models have been failing with a cold bias and keep revising warmer as of late. These day 15 maps have been nothing more than teases to only be revised later a la Lucy. These day 15 maps have been looking good on and off for the last 3 weeks of runs. Why believe them now? I’m going to need them to move to within day 10 to possibly start to get excited again about a true pattern change. But now we face a noncold first half of Jan vs looking cold just a few days ago.
 
The evolution of the mid week system between the big three is kinda funny with the different solutions . 12z euro
05b6a6dcb25128b82dc1b06e3aa74fd6.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
Not going to fall for this again. The models have been failing with a cold bias and keep revising warmer as of late. These day 15 maps have been nothing more than teases to only be revised later a la Lucy. These day 15 maps have been looking good on and off for the last 3 weeks of runs. Why believe them now? I’m going to need them to move to within day 10 to possibly start to get excited again about a true pattern change. But now we face a noncold first half of Jan vs looking cold just a few days ago.
Click to expand...

But I want to believe :). And it does have to start somewhere. If EPS starts to show it would make us feel better.

But it isn’t close :-(
 
FV3 better that run. A good cold shot around the 9th and Canada is reloaded at the end of the run. The players may not be on the field yet but we might have a stage with decent acoustics.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
dsaur said:
Ptree City's point forecast for Thur night is 33 and rain. That's close enough for me any winter. Just because the models don't show a huge winter storm for the deep south doesn't mean it can't happen. After all my years of watching winters disappoint, my criteria for getting interested are a lot less stringent than most of ya'll, lol. And old boundary, cold close by, impulses kicking out of the southwest...that's enough for me. Since most winters I don't see anything anyway, getting close is exciting. Maybe you just have to be old, and used to heart break, to take what you can get. Torch, or not, if it's 33 and rain is forecast, it's worth watching, just in case. Most of my good storms are "just in case" storms anyway. I live in the deep south where it usually won't happen no matter what any models says, or doesn't say. If it's 33 and may rain, you go outside and look, just in case, you don't look at no damn model and ----- because it's not in the 20's.
Click to expand...

Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.

WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.

Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
 
Batman said:
Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.

WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.

Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
Click to expand...

I think it is like that here, too. We don't get any storms when we have extended periods of really cold weather. And seems like we get our best storms when there is a lot of back and forth with the cold and warmth.
 
We don't want a lag, if you want a better pattern in January. Question is can we salvage the last 10 days of January.

 
Batman said:
Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.

WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.

Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
Click to expand...

Preach brother.
 
Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



View attachment 9690
Click to expand...
It will not take weeks to change the pattern once the MJO moves into a favorable phase. Things will happen fast once it starts. The first thing to look for is the Aleutian low to position itself in a manner to prevent Canada from being flooded with Pacific air. Then the dominoes will fall.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
It will not take weeks to change the pattern once the MJO moves into a favorable phase. Things will happen fast once it starts. The first thing to look for is the Aleutian low to position itself in a manner to prevent Canada from being flooded with Pacific air. Then the dominoes will fall.
Click to expand...

We will see. You still have that post of mine queued up where I said the first half of January was toast :)

Just a reminder on how long MJO lags can take. Smart people are tweeting it could take longer this time.

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-deal-or-no-deal.461/post-132076
 
The eps and euro op are much further NW with the frozen precip vs the other guidance . Hard to bet against the eps
f93c9134c5eb4490e7c109abd998e84a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
But I want to believe :). And it does have to start somewhere. If EPS starts to show it would make us feel better.

But it isn’t close :-(
Click to expand...

Unlike JB always does, I won't keep saying delayed but not denied. He never backs down and often fails as a result. I'm saying delayed and maybe denied, too. At a minimum, we're denied more and more peak winter days with every day the models fail.
By the way, those very cold FV3 runs are looking real bad now.
He may be a blind squirrel but Mack is looking the smartest of all of us.
And to add insult to injury, the new EPS is looking warmer than the 0Z and lousy through the end. ATL lows 40+ most days. 360 hour map sucks, too.
I'm usually quiet when things look bad, but I can't hold back any more.

. Could global warming be a part of this? The Arctic continues way warmer than normal:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
 
Iook at the advantages with a above average pattern, you can grill out, have a nice soccer/football game, nice jogging weather, still tho I gotta admit this pattern is pissing me off
 
Kylo said:
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.



View attachment 9690
Click to expand...

I tend to believe the GEFS now, more than earlier because it's now showing us getting into the colder/favorable MJO phases. Before it showing improved conditions in the warm phases, so whatever it was spitting out before was bologna. Now it makes more sense. EPS still shows the MJO making a B-line to the COD which we've discussed ain't happening so we can take what it shows and toss it IMO. The GEFS is starting to show -AO up top so that's a start. If this is the start of the turn around right at mid month, I'm fine with that. It's not great at that point, but it's the light at the end of the tunnel. That's right on time for us to get cranking late January and if it gets better from there next week we're gold I think.

However my concern is the below. That stinking loop around. Other models are showing it too. If the stall, loop around happens and we're stuck in phase 6 we're toast. I'm not sure I'm a believer in phase 7 either honestly as those analogs are based on nino, and we're not in a full nino state yet based on the +SOI. So really until we get into 8 and we get the SOI- I think we fail IMO. MJO is just driving the ship, no matter what the models say. When the MJO and the ensembles align, that's where the truth lies.

Deep down I think we get there, but we may be waiting on a Fab Feb.

1546114908126.png
 
Last season in upstate sc at least. I can’t speak for others. We had a few inches in December then January was warm. Then we saw a little 1-2 inch snow in February. This year probably going to be similar


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I just looked at the Dec SOI for 48 El Niño’s going back to 1876. The highest Dec SOI is only +4! We’re near +9! That maybe a hint of what’s now wrong and what may need to change.
 
We’ve been in high amp
phase 5 MJO, by far the worst place to be. Is it possible the models fail the most while initializing in strong phase 5?
 
GaWx said:
I just looked at the Dec SOI for 48 El Niño’s going back to 1876. The highest Dec SOI is only +4! We’re near +9! That maybe a hint of what’s now wrong and what may need to change.
Click to expand...
Larry,
What need to change are naked expectations.
Models do what they do ... they are not weather ...
Best!
Phil
 
Webberweather53 said:
The acceleration of the Brewer Dobson Circulation due to the Stratospheric Warming event in the northern hemisphere is cooling the tropical stratosphere down to the tropopause which will likely have some impact on the MJO going forward.
View attachment 9673
Click to expand...

We're getting a double whammy of stratospheric warming events from both the northern & southern hemispheres, (the S Hem is undergoing a final warming event). The Brewer Dobson Circulation is going to be kicked into overdrive the next several weeks.

Screen Shot 2018-12-29 at 3.29.02 PM.png
Screen Shot 2018-12-29 at 3.28.52 PM.png


As seen in the diagram below, sudden stratospheric warming events at the poles are associated with large-scale adiabatic sinking, the sinking essentially compresses and warms the air. Thus, air in the stratosphere over the tropics has to rise more quickly to replace it, which leads to anomalous adiabatic cooling down to the tropical tropopause that is capable of triggering convection in the tropics and having a significant impact on the MJO by altering the upper level wind shear and static stability.


The-Brewer-Dobson-circulation-in-the-PDE-The-Hadley-Ferrel-and-Polar-cells-are-visible.png
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
What need to change are naked expectations.
Models do what they do ... they are not weather ...
Best!
Phil
Click to expand...

The models usually have some hint. And the worry is that they keep on losing/delaying the pattern change (for 3 weeks now).
Expectations are usually high and have to be taken with a grain but they were extra high for many to start this time fueled largely by the monthly Euro DJF fcast and a few others along with the Pioneer combined with weak/mod Niño climo and enhanced by the SSW. The chances of DJF for us being cold averaged are rapidly dripping. That being said, all it takes for a memorable winter is one good winter storm and late Jan-early Mar can still give that.
 
GaWx said:
The models usually have some hint. And the worry is that they keep on losing/delaying the pattern change (for 3 weeks now).
Expectations are usually high and have to be taken with a grain but they were extra high for many to start this time fueled largely by the monthly Euro DJF fcast and a few others along with the Pioneer combined with weak/mod Niño climo and enhanced by the SSW. The chances of DJF for us being cold averaged are rapidly dripping. That being said, all it takes for a memorable winter is one good winter storm and late Jan-early Mar can still give that.
Click to expand...

Just look at how bad the EPS has been. Well all models for that.

10-15 from 5 days ago v/s today run

FAF2FB89-F05E-466B-BD6C-6F1B392BB5B0.pngB13E5539-D91E-4D84-85D5-57CE189E2EF4.png
 
GaWx said:
Are these errors made worse now because we’ve in strong phase 5 for 10 days and will end up with a two full weeks in there?
Click to expand...

That’s what I am thinking. It’s stunning that the SOI is as high as it is and I really don’t see a -SOI on the models now. This winter is so odd.
 
Kylo said:
That’s what I am thinking. It’s stunning that the SOI is as high as it is and I really don’t see a -SOI on the models now. This winter is so odd.
Click to expand...
Do you think we get slammed in February and early March cause that’s what I’m starting to think. Which no matter what anyone says February and March produce the best winter storms in my area
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
What need to change are naked expectations.
Models do what they do ... they are not weather ...
Best!
Phil
Click to expand...
Models are not the weather! Old man winter, and mother nature say "what models? We don't need no stinkin' models!!!" When I was a young winter weather enthusiast my model was the airport reporting on weather conditions at 10k feet, and a minute of happy talk entertainment weather on the tv machine, and some times I got surprised. Today we have amazing models, and sometimes we get surprised, lol Imagine that. Do not trust your gagets.....when the big rock from space comes you won't be using your gadgets. You'll be talking to spiders, watching wooly worms, and sniffin squirrel whizz, to determine the weather, or oh, yes, observation, and you'll still be surprised :)
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Do you think we get slammed in February and early March cause that’s what I’m starting to think. Which no matter what anyone says February and March produce the best winter storms in my area
Click to expand...

Yes I do. I think we get a 2-3 week window in Feb and a couple of chances. I think eventually MJO, strat and nino climo all come together in Feb. I think we torch March though.
 
dsaur said:
Models are not the weather! Old man winter, and mother nature say "what models? We don't need no stinkin' models!!!" When I was a young winter weather enthusiast my model was the airport reporting on weather conditions at 10k feet, and a minute of happy talk entertainment weather on the tv machine, and some times I got surprised. Today we have amazing models, and sometimes we get surprised, lol Imagine that. Do not trust your gagets.....when the big rock from space comes you won't be using your gadgets. You'll be talking to spiders, watching wooly worms, and sniffin squirrel whizz, to determine the weather, or oh, yes, observation, and you'll still be surprised :)
Click to expand...

Tony,
I try cases. I look and listen; body language and inflection. From that and not the words themselves I know where things are going.
Weather is much the same; one needs a 6th sense. Models are 1 - 5. Not 6. Models are a tool, and a good one. But not the end-all.
What's going on with trees, birds, wind, sky and on and on in October and November are just as, if not far, more telling.
Spoken with truth and conviction by an old
Curmudgeon,
Phil
 
The eps is trying to progress to something better during days 10-15.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top