Kylo
Member
The latest EPS and GEFS have no more than about two cold days over the SE through midmonth. At one point runs early in the week had cold for most of early Jan. So, assuming models are right, we’ve lost the 1st half of Jan and can’t trust any current day 15-16 maps that hint at a colder change soon after. Heck, the models were first hinting at a colder pattern change starting ~12/23 as of 12/10 runs and look where we are now. So, we can only hope that this finally occurs 2nd half of Jan. The 0Z GEFS does have -AO as we head into mid Jan but it has had a -AO bias of about -.50.
Regardless, JB/Pioneer DJF historic SE cold chances of verifying going down which each passing day of delay in cold pattern change. Now he’s referring to the coldest change from Dec to Jan in the SE history, 1985.
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.
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Not going to fall for this again. The models have been failing with a cold bias and keep revising warmer as of late. These day 15 maps have been nothing more than teases to only be revised later a la Lucy. These day 15 maps have been looking good on and off for the last 3 weeks of runs. Why believe them now? I’m going to need them to move to within day 10 to possibly start to get excited again about a true pattern change. But now we face a noncold first half of Jan vs looking cold just a few days ago.
Ptree City's point forecast for Thur night is 33 and rain. That's close enough for me any winter. Just because the models don't show a huge winter storm for the deep south doesn't mean it can't happen. After all my years of watching winters disappoint, my criteria for getting interested are a lot less stringent than most of ya'll, lol. And old boundary, cold close by, impulses kicking out of the southwest...that's enough for me. Since most winters I don't see anything anyway, getting close is exciting. Maybe you just have to be old, and used to heart break, to take what you can get. Torch, or not, if it's 33 and rain is forecast, it's worth watching, just in case. Most of my good storms are "just in case" storms anyway. I live in the deep south where it usually won't happen no matter what any models says, or doesn't say. If it's 33 and may rain, you go outside and look, just in case, you don't look at no damn model and ----- because it's not in the 20's.
Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.
WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.
Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
Love this post because it echoes my thoughts and you resemble my geography. I have lived about 30 miles SW of ATL. In that time I have experienced 15 snowless winters. Some of our coldest winters (like 02-03) netted me no snow. Some of our warmest like 01-02 ( a blow torch winter if there ever was one) and last year, netted me big snows when the pattern did turn briefly cold. I know that expectations in places like NC can and probably should be different than mine, but history tells me if I am waiting for extended extreme cold and numerous storms, I will be disappointed. I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.
WRT the current weather, I will take the STJ pattern with precip. every few days and take my chances that we will get our chances at some cold and snow. I have never trusted a favorable MJO or SSW to produce winter weather. Seen too many if/then on these two factors and then see them under perform. I would love to see them align with the current el nino and produce some blockbuster cold and storms from mid Jan and beyond, but again, not holding my breath. I am also saying that even if a cold pattern does not eventually over take us, the STJ could provide several opportunities for winter weather throughout the SE.
Lastly, today is warm. The next few days will be rather mild/warm, but this is no blowtorch. I have seen a winter blowtorch and this is not and will not be a blowtorch winter.
It will not take weeks to change the pattern once the MJO moves into a favorable phase. Things will happen fast once it starts. The first thing to look for is the Aleutian low to position itself in a manner to prevent Canada from being flooded with Pacific air. Then the dominoes will fall.Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.
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It will not take weeks to change the pattern once the MJO moves into a favorable phase. Things will happen fast once it starts. The first thing to look for is the Aleutian low to position itself in a manner to prevent Canada from being flooded with Pacific air. Then the dominoes will fall.
But I want to believe. And it does have to start somewhere. If EPS starts to show it would make us feel better.
But it isn’t close :-(
Another solid run of the GEFS. That's a few runs in a row of building heights over the pole. Splits the pig vortex just north of AK. +NAO pattern but take what we can get. Still a ways to go before sustained cold returns.
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Larry,I just looked at the Dec SOI for 48 El Niño’s going back to 1876. The highest Dec SOI is only +4! We’re near +9! That maybe a hint of what’s now wrong and what may need to change.
The acceleration of the Brewer Dobson Circulation due to the Stratospheric Warming event in the northern hemisphere is cooling the tropical stratosphere down to the tropopause which will likely have some impact on the MJO going forward.
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Larry,
What need to change are naked expectations.
Models do what they do ... they are not weather ...
Best!
Phil
The models usually have some hint. And the worry is that they keep on losing/delaying the pattern change (for 3 weeks now).
Expectations are usually high and have to be taken with a grain but they were extra high for many to start this time fueled largely by the monthly Euro DJF fcast and a few others along with the Pioneer combined with weak/mod Niño climo and enhanced by the SSW. The chances of DJF for us being cold averaged are rapidly dripping. That being said, all it takes for a memorable winter is one good winter storm and late Jan-early Mar can still give that.
Just look at how bad the EPS has been. Well all models for that.
10-15 from 5 days ago v/s today run
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Are these errors made worse now because we’ve in strong phase 5 for 10 days and will end up with a two full weeks in there?
Do you think we get slammed in February and early March cause that’s what I’m starting to think. Which no matter what anyone says February and March produce the best winter storms in my areaThat’s what I am thinking. It’s stunning that the SOI is as high as it is and I really don’t see a -SOI on the models now. This winter is so odd.
Models are not the weather! Old man winter, and mother nature say "what models? We don't need no stinkin' models!!!" When I was a young winter weather enthusiast my model was the airport reporting on weather conditions at 10k feet, and a minute of happy talk entertainment weather on the tv machine, and some times I got surprised. Today we have amazing models, and sometimes we get surprised, lol Imagine that. Do not trust your gagets.....when the big rock from space comes you won't be using your gadgets. You'll be talking to spiders, watching wooly worms, and sniffin squirrel whizz, to determine the weather, or oh, yes, observation, and you'll still be surprisedLarry,
What need to change are naked expectations.
Models do what they do ... they are not weather ...
Best!
Phil
Do you think we get slammed in February and early March cause that’s what I’m starting to think. Which no matter what anyone says February and March produce the best winter storms in my area
Models are not the weather! Old man winter, and mother nature say "what models? We don't need no stinkin' models!!!" When I was a young winter weather enthusiast my model was the airport reporting on weather conditions at 10k feet, and a minute of happy talk entertainment weather on the tv machine, and some times I got surprised. Today we have amazing models, and sometimes we get surprised, lol Imagine that. Do not trust your gagets.....when the big rock from space comes you won't be using your gadgets. You'll be talking to spiders, watching wooly worms, and sniffin squirrel whizz, to determine the weather, or oh, yes, observation, and you'll still be surprised![]()
Per this link, the longest strong phase 5 since1975 during Nov-Mar has been only about 10 days and longest in moderate 5 12 days (Dec 94). Compare this to what’s going to end up as 14 days of strong phase 5 this month: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt