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Pattern Jammin' January

Good thread from HM tonight. Thinks once in MJO phase 7-8 we will get a flip to cold over conus like 1994-95 but it will somewhat lag even after we enter phase 7. So after I read this thread, I believe his thoughts are a pattern change being entrenched late Jan, which seems consensus anyway (mid to late Jan)...



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Do winters exist where there is virtually no northern stream? Only arctic highs dropping down with an active STJ? I guess we need energy from the north to deliver the cold airmass? It’s late. Just thought I would stick my foot in my mouth one more time before bed
 
GEFS was much worse at 00z. If you want to challenge this statement you can go to TT and look for yourself
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Do winters exist where there is virtually no northern stream? Only arctic highs dropping down with an active STJ? I guess we need energy from the north to deliver the cold airmass? It’s late. Just thought I would stick my foot in my mouth one more time before bed
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Yeah. Back in the day we used to have very strong HPs and have to worry about suppression with a lot of systems. That seems more rare these days for some reason. I also miss tracking a triple phaser or phasing in general with multiple waves...seems like if we get a phase now its with the northern stream and a s/w and that occurs much later...Meh, forecasting was much more fun 5-10 years ago lol


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The acceleration of the Brewer Dobson Circulation due to the Stratospheric Warming event in the northern hemisphere is cooling the tropical stratosphere down to the tropopause which will likely have some impact on the MJO going forward.
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06z gefs
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I still believe/hope. I think this looks impressive and you start see winds reverse at lower levels. Not only that, but reinforced at day 8-10 at upper levels. I am not patient so yeah, going to suck waiting to see if it (HLB) happens.

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We have seen the GEFS model the AO negative the past week or so in the extended only to back off. The EPS isn't enthused, yet. But, got to start somewhere. Hopefully by the first week or two of January the EPS starts to show signs for end of January.

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All 4 GFS runs show virtually the same pattern at hour 384 as hour 0. I hope the back portion of winter pays off.
 
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