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Pattern Jammin' January

That’s a perfect miller A next week. Depends on how much cold wraps in on backside of this. This thing still bares watching


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Screenshot_20181228-171901.png 18z gfs does not completely close off the upper level disturbance until it's over central nc, also more faster/progressive on this run but it is the 18z ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 9655 18z gfs does not completely close off the upper level disturbance until it's over central nc, also more faster/progressive on this run but it is the 18z
Click to expand...

That gfs run is a improvement. Previous runs had the low track inland right through South Carolina. This run tracks the low off shore hugging the coast. If we can get this to trend colder we may have something. Right now the mountains would see a good snow from this.


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HUNtsville now has chance of snow showers wed through fri
Wednesday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 47.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Seems like we’ve been seeing positive trends in modeling for like 4 weeks, and here we are , still looking longingly for a great pattern!
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I haven’t seen any positive trends in any model for any period of time recently. I’ve seen some good patterns modeled infrequently out in la la land. But I haven’t seen anything trending positively on any model. The only real trend has been for a SSW to occur. How that ends up influencing the pattern is literally anyone’s guess.

Regarding the NAO discussion, a couple of things come to mind. First, the term “Southeast” refers to a large area. It moves me to wonder if the same correlations hold true for, say, western TN or northern MS as Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC? My guess is that it would be easier to get more frequent winter storms in western and northern areas of the SE than more eastern and southern areas without a -NAO.

Secondly, the -NAO suppresses the height field, shunting the jet southward, and slows the flow. Just on its face, that seems like a good background to have in the southeast. I don’t take that to mean we can’t have winter storms without it, but my experience, particularly over the last several years of -EPO/+PNA conditions, tells me that without a mechanism in place to suppress the flow, eastern and southern areas in particular are going to be mixy and sloppy most of the time.
 
FV3 is not bad for the western part of the southeast and Tennessee. Doesn't back the GFS up on NC snow though.
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven’t seen any positive trends in any model for any period of time recently. I’ve seen some good patterns modeled infrequently out in la la land. But I haven’t seen anything trending positively on any model. The only real trend has been for a SSW to occur. How that ends up influencing the pattern is literally anyone’s guess.

Regarding the NAO discussion, a couple of things come to mind. First, the term “Southeast” refers to a large area. It moves me to wonder if the same correlations hold true for, say, western TN or northern MS as Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC? My guess is that it would be easier to get more frequent winter storms in western and northern areas of the SE than more eastern and southern areas without a -NAO.

Secondly, the -NAO suppresses the height field, shunting the jet southward, and slows the flow. Just on its face, that seems like a good background to have in the southeast. I don’t take that to mean we can’t have winter storms without it, but my experience, particularly over the last several years of -EPO/+PNA conditions, tells me that without a mechanism in place to suppress the flow, eastern and southern areas in particular are going to be mixy and sloppy most of the time.
Click to expand...
AKA: The Fixer
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Stormlover do you think central Alabama have a chance as well
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Based on the most recent models, areas north and west of the I-59 corridor would stand the best shot, with the best chance being in Northern MS, SW TN & maybe Arkansas & North LA.

That’s based on just the last model run or so...a lot will likely change in the next few days.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Darkknight do you think areas in West Central Alabama around Tuscaloosa can have a chance as well
Click to expand...
Ilovesnow28 said:
Stormlover do you think central Alabama have a chance as well
Click to expand...
It's fine to ask once, but every few runs or so and two posts in a row is a bit much. Please refrain from asking constantly. :)
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven’t seen any positive trends in any model for any period of time recently. I’ve seen some good patterns modeled infrequently out in la la land. But I haven’t seen anything trending positively on any model. The only real trend has been for a SSW to occur. How that ends up influencing the pattern is literally anyone’s guess.

Regarding the NAO discussion, a couple of things come to mind. First, the term “Southeast” refers to a large area. It moves me to wonder if the same correlations hold true for, say, western TN or northern MS as Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC? My guess is that it would be easier to get more frequent winter storms in western and northern areas of the SE than more eastern and southern areas without a -NAO.

Secondly, the -NAO suppresses the height field, shunting the jet southward, and slows the flow. Just on its face, that seems like a good background to have in the southeast. I don’t take that to mean we can’t have winter storms without it, but my experience, particularly over the last se
Click to expand...

Very good post.
 
GEFS looks atrocious. I know there’s light at the end of the tunnel, but I’m not seeing it just yet 15333D24-3BD2-470D-8655-F084E904B1A9.pngED772BD9-2010-4082-9A4D-0755D10956B6.png
Ridge, that was out west, continues to move east each run. ??‍♂️
 
***IMPORTANT -- Please Read ***

RE: Posting and Moderating

A wonderful community of friends and passionate weather enthusiasts has been created here at Southernwx. As with any community, relationships are formed, and knowledge is exchanged. As with any community, sometimes we agree with each other and sometimes we disagree. And as with any community, each of us bears a modicum of responsibility for the atmosphere that is cultivated and enjoyed here.

Our overall objective, together, is to create and maintain an environment where anyone, of any background, with any knowledge level, can come here and learn about and discuss the weather, without fear of being shunned, derided, or subjected to stifling over-moderation. We do not support cliques or encourage insults, and we do not believe that someone can't contribute just because they don't have the same level of knowledge or experience as someone else. We do, however, support respect for each other and respect for the overall objective of the community. To that end, here are a few things to keep in mind, as we all enjoy the weather together:

1) Banter in non-banter threads -- There has been a lot of discussion lately about this lately. And rightly so. This is probably the most important item, so I will spend the most time here. There have been more than a few off-topic posts in this thread. Going forward, please try to keep these to a minimum. During slower times like this, we try to extend a bit more latitude. But please try and not take advantage of that. If a banter post just has to be typed, please try and keep it somewhat relevant to the thread. And if you just typed one a few minutes ago, please try and not type another one for 24 hours. During busy times, let's try and refrain from banter outside of the Banter thread.

Examples:

IMBY posts, Jokes, Wishcasting, Bittercasting, Complaining, Politics, etc. Try to use good judgment with these things. If you must type one of them, then also try to include something relevant about the topic at hand in the post. And PLEASE, for the love of Pete, let's put the bathtub sloshing joke in the bin for a while. It's gotten kind of long in the tooth. Apps Rubber, however, might have a little more gas in the tank.

2) Disagreements -- We are going to disagree. It's just going to happen. And it's perfectly ok. But let's try and do so respectfully. Look to the last page of this thread for a good example of how differing opinions can be communicated respectfully. It's easy to allow ego to dictate action and response in cyberspace. Let's try to remember we are all people and it is a common thread that brings us together here.

3) Over-moderation -- The staff wants to avoid being heavy-handed. We want all of us to be able to communicate freely and have a fun time talking about the weather. What we don't want is posters feeling like they can't post because they are ridiculed. We also don't want posters feeling like they can't post because there is too much clutter and banter in a discussion thread.

4) Deleting/moving posts -- In context with Number 3, we may delete or move a post. If that happens, we will do our best to PM you and tell you why. During busy times, this may not always be possible. Please don't take that as something personal. It isn't.

5) Complaining about other posters -- Let's try not to do this. And that means the passive-aggressive stuff too. We understand that not everyone views things the same way. Some are going to be more negative than others. If this bothers you, just place them on ignore. Complaining about someone's complaining is just as bad as the original complaining. I know this is going to happen sometimes, but again, try to minimize it. And if you're really bothered by the outcome of a weather event to the point that you feel compelled to drop a lot of complaints, please open up a Word doc and type it in there, rather than here.

Thanks for reading this and for all of your contributions here. In the end, no matter how our lives may or may not intersect outside of the digital code of this forum, we all gather here because we all love the weather. This connects everything that this community is about. And this IS a really great place. Going forward, let's all try and keep these things in mind when we engage with each other. Thanks again for reading. Hopefully, we will have some winter weather to track soon.
 
Rain Cold said:
***IMPORTANT -- Please Read ***

RE: Posting and Moderating

A wonderful community of friends and passionate weather enthusiasts has been created here at Southernwx. As with any community, relationships are formed, and knowledge is exchanged. As with any community, sometimes we agree with each other and sometimes we disagree. And as with any community, each of us bears a modicum of responsibility for the atmosphere that is cultivated and enjoyed here.

Our overall objective, together, is to create and maintain an environment where anyone, of any background, with any knowledge level, can come here and learn about and discuss the weather, without fear of being shunned, derided, or subjected to stifling over-moderation. We do not support cliques or encourage insults, and we do not believe that someone can't contribute just because they don't have the same level of knowledge or experience as someone else. We do, however, support respect for each other and respect for the overall objective of the community. To that end, here are a few things to keep in mind, as we all enjoy the weather together:

1) Banter in non-banter threads -- There has been a lot of discussion lately about this lately. And rightly so. This is probably the most important item, so I will spend the most time here. There have been more than a few off-topic posts in this thread. Going forward, please try to keep these to a minimum. During slower times like this, we try to extend a bit more latitude. But please try and not take advantage of that. If a banter post just has to be typed, please try and keep it somewhat relevant to the thread. And if you just typed one a few minutes ago, please try and not type another one for 24 hours. During busy times, let's try and refrain from banter outside of the Banter thread.

Examples:

IMBY posts, Jokes, Wishcasting, Bittercasting, Complaining, Politics, etc. Try to use good judgment with these things. If you must type one of them, then also try to include something relevant about the topic at hand in the post. And PLEASE, for the love of Pete, let's put the bathtub sloshing joke in the bin for a while. It's gotten kind of long in the tooth. Apps Rubber, however, might have a little more gas in the tank.

2) Disagreements -- We are going to disagree. It's just going to happen. And it's perfectly ok. But let's try and do so respectfully. Look to the last page of this thread for a good example of how differing opinions can be communicated respectfully. It's easy to allow ego to dictate action and response in cyberspace. Let's try to remember we are all people and it is a common thread that brings us together here.

3) Over-moderation -- The staff wants to avoid being heavy-handed. We want all of us to be able to communicate freely and have a fun time talking about the weather. What we don't want is posters feeling like they can't post because they are ridiculed. We also don't want posters feeling like they can't post because there is too much clutter and banter in a discussion thread.

4) Deleting/moving posts -- In context with Number 3, we may delete or move a post. If that happens, we will do our best to PM you and tell you why. During busy times, this may not always be possible. Please don't take that as something personal. It isn't.

5) Complaining about other posters -- Let's try not to do this. And that means the passive-aggressive stuff too. We understand that not everyone views things the same way. Some are going to be more negative than others. If this bothers you, just place them on ignore. Complaining about someone's complaining is just as bad as the original complaining. I know this is going to happen sometimes, but again, try to minimize it. And if you're really bothered by the outcome of a weather event to the point that you feel compelled to drop a lot of complaints, please open up a Word doc and type it in there, rather than here.

Thanks for reading this and for all of your contributions here. In the end, no matter how our lives may or may not intersect outside of the digital code of this forum, we all gather here because we all love the weather. This connects everything that this community is about. And this IS a really great place. Going forward, let's all try and keep these things in mind when we engage with each other. Thanks again for reading. Hopefully, we will have some winter weather to track soon.
Click to expand...
Signed,

The Fixer

(Great post)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
***IMPORTANT -- Please Read ***

RE: Posting and Moderating

A wonderful community of friends and passionate weather enthusiasts has been created here at Southernwx. As with any community, relationships are formed, and knowledge is exchanged. As with any community, sometimes we agree with each other and sometimes we disagree. And as with any community, each of us bears a modicum of responsibility for the atmosphere that is cultivated and enjoyed here.

Our overall objective, together, is to create and maintain an environment where anyone, of any background, with any knowledge level, can come here and learn about and discuss the weather, without fear of being shunned, derided, or subjected to stifling over-moderation. We do not support cliques or encourage insults, and we do not believe that someone can't contribute just because they don't have the same level of knowledge or experience as someone else. We do, however, support respect for each other and respect for the overall objective of the community. To that end, here are a few things to keep in mind, as we all enjoy the weather together:

1) Banter in non-banter threads -- There has been a lot of discussion lately about this lately. And rightly so. This is probably the most important item, so I will spend the most time here. There have been more than a few off-topic posts in this thread. Going forward, please try to keep these to a minimum. During slower times like this, we try to extend a bit more latitude. But please try and not take advantage of that. If a banter post just has to be typed, please try and keep it somewhat relevant to the thread. And if you just typed one a few minutes ago, please try and not type another one for 24 hours. During busy times, let's try and refrain from banter outside of the Banter thread.

Examples:

IMBY posts, Jokes, Wishcasting, Bittercasting, Complaining, Politics, etc. Try to use good judgment with these things. If you must type one of them, then also try to include something relevant about the topic at hand in the post. And PLEASE, for the love of Pete, let's put the bathtub sloshing joke in the bin for a while. It's gotten kind of long in the tooth. Apps Rubber, however, might have a little more gas in the tank.

2) Disagreements -- We are going to disagree. It's just going to happen. And it's perfectly ok. But let's try and do so respectfully. Look to the last page of this thread for a good example of how differing opinions can be communicated respectfully. It's easy to allow ego to dictate action and response in cyberspace. Let's try to remember we are all people and it is a common thread that brings us together here.

3) Over-moderation -- The staff wants to avoid being heavy-handed. We want all of us to be able to communicate freely and have a fun time talking about the weather. What we don't want is posters feeling like they can't post because they are ridiculed. We also don't want posters feeling like they can't post because there is too much clutter and banter in a discussion thread.

4) Deleting/moving posts -- In context with Number 3, we may delete or move a post. If that happens, we will do our best to PM you and tell you why. During busy times, this may not always be possible. Please don't take that as something personal. It isn't.

5) Complaining about other posters -- Let's try not to do this. And that means the passive-aggressive stuff too. We understand that not everyone views things the same way. Some are going to be more negative than others. If this bothers you, just place them on ignore. Complaining about someone's complaining is just as bad as the original complaining. I know this is going to happen sometimes, but again, try to minimize it. And if you're really bothered by the outcome of a weather event to the point that you feel compelled to drop a lot of complaints, please open up a Word doc and type it in there, rather than here.

Thanks for reading this and for all of your contributions here. In the end, no matter how our lives may or may not intersect outside of the digital code of this forum, we all gather here because we all love the weather. This connects everything that this community is about. And this IS a really great place. Going forward, let's all try and keep these things in mind when we engage with each other. Thanks again for reading. Hopefully, we will have some winter weather to track soon.
Click to expand...
Great post. I agree definitely about #3 and #5. A friendly atmosphere overall from all members is what makes a great board.
 
Rain Cold said:
***IMPORTANT -- Please Read ***

RE: Posting and Moderating

A wonderful community of friends and passionate weather enthusiasts has been created here at Southernwx. As with any community, relationships are formed, and knowledge is exchanged. As with any community, sometimes we agree with each other and sometimes we disagree. And as with any community, each of us bears a modicum of responsibility for the atmosphere that is cultivated and enjoyed here.

Our overall objective, together, is to create and maintain an environment where anyone, of any background, with any knowledge level, can come here and learn about and discuss the weather, without fear of being shunned, derided, or subjected to stifling over-moderation. We do not support cliques or encourage insults, and we do not believe that someone can't contribute just because they don't have the same level of knowledge or experience as someone else. We do, however, support respect for each other and respect for the overall objective of the community. To that end, here are a few things to keep in mind, as we all enjoy the weather together:

1) Banter in non-banter threads -- There has been a lot of discussion lately about this lately. And rightly so. This is probably the most important item, so I will spend the most time here. There have been more than a few off-topic posts in this thread. Going forward, please try to keep these to a minimum. During slower times like this, we try to extend a bit more latitude. But please try and not take advantage of that. If a banter post just has to be typed, please try and keep it somewhat relevant to the thread. And if you just typed one a few minutes ago, please try and not type another one for 24 hours. During busy times, let's try and refrain from banter outside of the Banter thread.

Examples:

IMBY posts, Jokes, Wishcasting, Bittercasting, Complaining, Politics, etc. Try to use good judgment with these things. If you must type one of them, then also try to include something relevant about the topic at hand in the post. And PLEASE, for the love of Pete, let's put the bathtub sloshing joke in the bin for a while. It's gotten kind of long in the tooth. Apps Rubber, however, might have a little more gas in the tank.

2) Disagreements -- We are going to disagree. It's just going to happen. And it's perfectly ok. But let's try and do so respectfully. Look to the last page of this thread for a good example of how differing opinions can be communicated respectfully. It's easy to allow ego to dictate action and response in cyberspace. Let's try to remember we are all people and it is a common thread that brings us together here.

3) Over-moderation -- The staff wants to avoid being heavy-handed. We want all of us to be able to communicate freely and have a fun time talking about the weather. What we don't want is posters feeling like they can't post because they are ridiculed. We also don't want posters feeling like they can't post because there is too much clutter and banter in a discussion thread.

4) Deleting/moving posts -- In context with Number 3, we may delete or move a post. If that happens, we will do our best to PM you and tell you why. During busy times, this may not always be possible. Please don't take that as something personal. It isn't.

5) Complaining about other posters -- Let's try not to do this. And that means the passive-aggressive stuff too. We understand that not everyone views things the same way. Some are going to be more negative than others. If this bothers you, just place them on ignore. Complaining about someone's complaining is just as bad as the original complaining. I know this is going to happen sometimes, but again, try to minimize it. And if you're really bothered by the outcome of a weather event to the point that you feel compelled to drop a lot of complaints, please open up a Word doc and type it in there, rather than here.

Thanks for reading this and for all of your contributions here. In the end, no matter how our lives may or may not intersect outside of the digital code of this forum, we all gather here because we all love the weather. This connects everything that this community is about. And this IS a really great place. Going forward, let's all try and keep these things in mind when we engage with each other. Thanks again for reading. Hopefully, we will have some winter weather to track soon.
Click to expand...
Also, I would like to add one more thing. If you have a problem with something or anything else, you can message any of us mods and we will get try to get the answer or point you in the right direction.
 
The cmc cold bias vs the gfs
6e9508e665d0ef3311a43c53c59b2efb.jpg
f16f9c01368acba2528b8244561e0994.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ok come on guys!!!! Did we not read raincold post that was posted a few hours ago about banter!!!! I just got done moving 5 post that should been made in banter forums.
 
Rain Cold said:
***IMPORTANT -- Please Read ***

RE: Posting and Moderating

A wonderful community of friends and passionate weather enthusiasts has been created here at Southernwx. As with any community, relationships are formed, and knowledge is exchanged. As with any community, sometimes we agree with each other and sometimes we disagree. And as with any community, each of us bears a modicum of responsibility for the atmosphere that is cultivated and enjoyed here.

Our overall objective, together, is to create and maintain an environment where anyone, of any background, with any knowledge level, can come here and learn about and discuss the weather, without fear of being shunned, derided, or subjected to stifling over-moderation. We do not support cliques or encourage insults, and we do not believe that someone can't contribute just because they don't have the same level of knowledge or experience as someone else. We do, however, support respect for each other and respect for the overall objective of the community. To that end, here are a few things to keep in mind, as we all enjoy the weather together:

1) Banter in non-banter threads -- There has been a lot of discussion lately about this lately. And rightly so. This is probably the most important item, so I will spend the most time here. There have been more than a few off-topic posts in this thread. Going forward, please try to keep these to a minimum. During slower times like this, we try to extend a bit more latitude. But please try and not take advantage of that. If a banter post just has to be typed, please try and keep it somewhat relevant to the thread. And if you just typed one a few minutes ago, please try and not type another one for 24 hours. During busy times, let's try and refrain from banter outside of the Banter thread.

Examples:

IMBY posts, Jokes, Wishcasting, Bittercasting, Complaining, Politics, etc. Try to use good judgment with these things. If you must type one of them, then also try to include something relevant about the topic at hand in the post. And PLEASE, for the love of Pete, let's put the bathtub sloshing joke in the bin for a while. It's gotten kind of long in the tooth. Apps Rubber, however, might have a little more gas in the tank.

2) Disagreements -- We are going to disagree. It's just going to happen. And it's perfectly ok. But let's try and do so respectfully. Look to the last page of this thread for a good example of how differing opinions can be communicated respectfully. It's easy to allow ego to dictate action and response in cyberspace. Let's try to remember we are all people and it is a common thread that brings us together here.

3) Over-moderation -- The staff wants to avoid being heavy-handed. We want all of us to be able to communicate freely and have a fun time talking about the weather. What we don't want is posters feeling like they can't post because they are ridiculed. We also don't want posters feeling like they can't post because there is too much clutter and banter in a discussion thread.

4) Deleting/moving posts -- In context with Number 3, we may delete or move a post. If that happens, we will do our best to PM you and tell you why. During busy times, this may not always be possible. Please don't take that as something personal. It isn't.

5) Complaining about other posters -- Let's try not to do this. And that means the passive-aggressive stuff too. We understand that not everyone views things the same way. Some are going to be more negative than others. If this bothers you, just place them on ignore. Complaining about someone's complaining is just as bad as the original complaining. I know this is going to happen sometimes, but again, try to minimize it. And if you're really bothered by the outcome of a weather event to the point that you feel compelled to drop a lot of complaints, please open up a Word doc and type it in there, rather than here.

Thanks for reading this and for all of your contributions here. In the end, no matter how our lives may or may not intersect outside of the digital code of this forum, we all gather here because we all love the weather. This connects everything that this community is about. And this IS a really great place. Going forward, let's all try and keep these things in mind when we engage with each other. Thanks again for reading. Hopefully, we will have some winter weather to track soon.
Click to expand...
Reposting this again...^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Please read this!!!!!!^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
 
0z FV3, I do notice some differences at H5 vs the 18z run. The positive tilt trof is being held back just a bit, also the northern stream is pressing down a bit further south.
458ac1626e052bc451635e793da709d0.jpg
 
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