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Pattern Jammin' January

Kylo said:
Also thought this was interesting. 5 day period January 21 from the past 3 weeklies run. Last Thursday we had a typical canonical nino look, then Monday was kind of meh with andoned Npac low, SER and western trough. But today was an improvement from Monday with HLB but still no Npac low. Maybe strat starting to work.

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The weeklies don't look good to me at all until 1/20 IMO. Trough is in central us not eastern and there's a huge WAR off the east coast until then. Even then there's still not much ridging up near the pole. Ensembles still look meh till the end. Losing confidence in the blockbuster back end of winter.

I still have the feeling we repeat the last 5 years. +PNA/-EPO at best and we fight off the WAR/SER. Miller B's are us if anything until that changes I think.
 
Just wondering, since all the models have been all over the place, seven days out is apparently beyond their mode for accuracy,.... there is some cold air presently pressing towards the southeast, there are several storms moving across the south, why are we so focused on model forecast weeks and months out? they change multiple times a day? We could have a system within a week bring decent snows across much of the south....as far as long term cold,...I'm watching the north pole to see when the LP centered over it slides off... then I figure we are about a week to 10 days from possible long lasting cold.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I mean would it be a horrible thing if we didnt have a winter ? Think about all the homeless or the poor who cant afford to keep their houses warm. And what about people who have to work outdoors? I am pretty sure none of those people would mind a mild winter.
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Troll level: Expert
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I mean would it be a horrible thing if we didnt have a winter ? Think about all the homeless or the poor who cant afford to keep their houses warm. And what about people who have to work outdoors? I am pretty sure none of those people would mind a mild winter.
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What about people that make a living on it snowing. Skiing industry creates a lot of jobs. Snow plow folks.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Just wondering, since all the models have been all over the place, seven days out is apparently beyond their mode for accuracy,.... there is some cold air presently pressing towards the southeast, there are several storms moving across the south, why are we so focused on model forecast weeks and months out? they change multiple times a day? We could have a system within a week bring decent snows across much of the south....as far as long term cold,...I'm watching the north pole to see when the LP centered over it slides off... then I figure we are about a week to 10 days from possible long lasting cold.
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This is an excellent post! I follow this forum but rarely post. Largely because my model reading skills are sub par compared to many, but also because this forum often has more drama, emotions, and up and downs than a middle school girls cheerleaders party! It is often laughable. Many of our past great storms were not even a real threat until they are a few days away. There have been many, many winters where the prospects have been much, much more bleak on Dec. 28 than they are today. As has been mentioned a time or two, even our most revered and hallowed winters were not really wall to wall cold and snow. This is the south. I will take this incredible STJ with the POTENTIAL for the temps to flip cold in the not to distant future. we have lived thru much worse WRT winter weather.
 
Kylo said:
What about people that make a living on it snowing. Skiing industry creates a lot of jobs. Snow plow folks.
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I just think that overall, cold and snow does more harm than good. If a mild winter means less people dying from slippery roads or freezing to death or shoveling snow, then i am all for it. I am not saying that snow and cold cant be fun, because it can. I am just trying to offer some perspective.
 
I just heard thunder here in Upstate sc. doesn’t that mean 7-10 days it supposed to snow? Obviously a wise tale.


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The thing that constantly amazes me is that we seemingly either have periods of extreme warmth or extreme cold in the winters today. Whenever I was a child in the 90's, I never remember these extended periods of warmth that seemingly occur at least once every winter. However, I do remember them becoming more prevalent whenever I was in the high school during the early/mid 00's. The pattern will most likely change at some point in time during the season, but there's no use in arguing about something that we can't control/may or may not happen. I haven't had any system deliver more than an inch of snow at my location since February 12, 2010 and it's certainly frustrating when seeing places far to the South latitudinally score big over the past few years. We can only hope for the best!
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
The thing that constantly amazes me is that we seemingly either have periods of extreme warmth or extreme cold in the winters today. Whenever I was a child in the 90's, I never remember these extended periods of warmth that seemingly occur at least once every winter. However, I do remember them becoming more prevalent whenever I was in the high school during the early/mid 00's. The pattern will most likely change at some point in time during the season, but there's no use in arguing about something that we can't control/may or may not happen. I haven't had any system deliver more than an inch of snow at my location since February 12, 2010 and it's certainly frustrating when seeing places far to the South latitudinally score big over the past few years. We can only hope for the best!
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Unless this is one of those bad recent winters, like 2012 or 2016 just as an example, I think the pattern will change eventually, but unless we want to go chasing, you, me, and a few others are chasing that -NAO unicorn to have a better than lousy shot at seeing some good accumulating snow. I'm sure it's not completely necessary (did 1/28/14 have the -NAO? I remember so much from that event but don't remember the -NAO), but it's more needed for there, here, central SC (maybe even upstate?), and some areas in NC.
 
Batman said:
This is an excellent post! I follow this forum but rarely post. Largely because my model reading skills are sub par compared to many, but also because this forum often has more drama, emotions, and up and downs than a middle school girls cheerleaders party! It is often laughable. Many of our past great storms were not even a real threat until they are a few days away. There have been many, many winters where the prospects have been much, much more bleak on Dec. 28 than they are today. As has been mentioned a time or two, even our most revered and hallowed winters were not really wall to wall cold and snow. This is the south. I will take this incredible STJ with the POTENTIAL for the temps to flip cold in the not to distant future. we have lived thru much worse WRT winter weather.
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I suggest ignore feature for some posters, seriously as you know from reading some live and die by each model run..... we let a lot go right now just because it's slow and I know it's difficult to weed thru the trivial complaints, sarcasm, complaints, etc but hang in there. Once business picks up those will be addressed in more earnest, in the mean time just ignore a handful of posters to increase your reading pleasure.
 
I think we’re still in a good position. The first half of January I expect to be back and forth between cold and warm then once mid January comes around we flip to a more sustained cold and then February really cools off for us. Also mild winters aren’t good at all many of our fruit crops require chill hours to produce until last year peach crops in Georgia were being weakened because they didn’t get the right amount of chill hours. Also in our livestock without the winter we wouldn’t have a break in the parasitic worms that plague them in a warm and wet climate. Winters more important than just getting some snow.
 
Kylo said:
Euro going for some backside action.

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Yep it's all in on that ULL.
ecmwf_T850_seus_8.png
 
Kylo said:
5 contour cutoff will get it done. It's a shame there isn't just a little cold air around to work with.

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Remember a week or two ago, when an ULL feature was supposed to give AL, TN, GA a lot of snow!? ;)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Unless this is one of those bad recent winters, like 2012 or 2016 just as an example, I think the pattern will change eventually, but unless we want to go chasing, you, me, and a few others are chasing that -NAO unicorn to have a better than lousy shot at seeing some good accumulating snow. I'm sure it's not completely necessary (did 1/28/14 have the -NAO? I remember so much from that event but don't remember the -NAO), but it's more needed for there, here, central SC (maybe even upstate?), and some areas in NC.
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Many big SE winter storms were during a +NAO. It is a myth that having a -NAO is crucial when reality (history) says no it isn’t. Why else has the SE had major winter storms during all phases of NAO fairly evenly spread out?

Edit: By far a more important index for major SE snow is a +PNA. How do I know this? The same source, actual daily historical data (snow and PNA/NAO since 1950). Major SE snows is not nearly as spread out through all phases of PNA.
 
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GaWx said:
Many big SE winter storms were during a +NAO. It is a myth that having a -NAO is crucial when reality (history) says no it isn’t. Why else has the SE had major winter storms during all phases of NAO fairly evenly spread out?

Edit: By far a more important index for major SE snow is a +PNA.
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Preach it Larry


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GaWx said:
Many big SE winter storms were during a +NAO. It is a myth that having a -NAO is crucial when reality (history) says no it isn’t. Why else has the SE had major winter storms during all phases of NAO fairly evenly spread out?

Edit: By far a more important index for major SE snow is a +PNA. How do I know this? The same source, actual daily historical data (snow and PNA since 1950).
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Not sure and someone else could probably chime in say @1300m but if I'm not mistaken a -NAO is preferred for significant winter threats in parts of the SE, especially NC as I've read that on the NC Climate website somewhere before. Anyway it seems the more we learn the less we know..... we've all seen winter storms during +/-NAO, +/-PNA, "bad" phases of the MJO, +/-SOI, +/-AO, etc. What we really need is cold air to collide with rising moisture to produce frozen precip, I don't care what acronym influences it ;):)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Unless this is one of those bad recent winters, like 2012 or 2016 just as an example, I think the pattern will change eventually, but unless we want to go chasing, you, me, and a few others are chasing that -NAO unicorn to have a better than lousy shot at seeing some good accumulating snow. I'm sure it's not completely necessary (did 1/28/14 have the -NAO? I remember so much from that event but don't remember the -NAO), but it's more needed for there, here, central SC (maybe even upstate?), and some areas in NC.
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No, a -NAO is not absolutely necessary to get a winter storm. Even with a -NAO, that does not mean that there will be a storm guarantee.
 
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