• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Should note again I'm not a big fan of ULLs at all, but watch this if it stays closed. It's more of an western SE deal but it could drop some snow there.
 
This ULL on the run is dropping some snow in the western SE. It's interesting because this looks quite different on H5.
 
Eff this

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_28.png
 
Gfs has a very weird setup. It does produce snow for so far for west Texas, south Arkansas, north Mississippi and north Alabama.
 
It's getting there for sure, it's still a good ways out. After this 0z GFS run, I'm really excited of what the 0z FV3 will show. If it was colder (which is still a possibility) this system would bring a lot of frozen precip that's for sure.
 
DarkKnight said:
Gfs has a very weird setup. It does produce snow for so far for west Texas, south Arkansas, north Mississippi and north Alabama.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure this is an ULL that is finally producing without a spring pattern:

1545971091305.png

I hate 'em, but they can drop some big time snows if you're in the right area. Interesting thing about this run is it was the first time this was a ULL though, on H5 this looks quite different from 18z, of course GFS lol.
 
Well, I will be interested in the gfs ensembles for sure tonight. I would like to see if the upper low setup that this run has support for its ensembles.
 
DarkKnight said:
Amazing how we go to a overrunning setup to a depending on a upper level low...
Click to expand...

Losing the northern stream. See how the 552dm line is trending north. With that happening you are getting more separation and allowing the s/w to amp. An ULL is about the only hope if this continues. The bad part is it is way early for this to happen, so expect more amping and a farther north track.
 

Attachments

  • gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh144_trend.gif
    gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh144_trend.gif
    1.2 MB · Views: 35
So far on the fvs-gfs at 120 the cold air push and cold air up north looks some better then the old gfs.
The FVS just looks better in my opinion. But I am no expert.
 
FVS a nice hit for south Arkansas, north miss/ala and northeast Georgia. And also some of tenn and North Carolina..9AFBD9AF-8762-42DA-A4A6-EE4AB87FD39E.pngB6841002-730A-45B3-8F0D-61268E80D7BB.png3613DCF4-9A51-4BF0-B46C-D2FC69A4193E.png98DBD7BB-FF80-47AE-A295-C2E51466156A.png
 
FV3 says yes again to a winter storm for the western parts of the SE and the northern half of NC. Don't think it's a ULL either, let me check.

Edit: Nope, just overrunning. So yeah, while the GFS would work for some, let's trash it. :) Overrunning is better.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
FV3 says yes again to a winter storm for the western parts of the SE and the northern half of NC. Don't think it's a ULL either, let me check.

Edit: Nope, just overrunning. So yeah, while the GFS would work for some, let's trash it. :) Overrunning is better.
Click to expand...
I would believe the new gfs at the junction. It has been more consistent with this threat.
 
This is 0z gefs. For to post this while ago. So there some support from the gfs members for a threat.3BEBAC3A-741F-433C-92A5-643D171CE77F.jpeg
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Correct me if i'm wrong but it looks better than its last run
Click to expand...

It is, it's more south. However it might be a little bit north of the 12z that opened eyes.

Just guessing based off that FV3, it's an ice storm to 1-2 inches of snow outside of the northern half. I'll probably be on tablet by the time it's loaded, but the ice accretion map will be interesting.

Also hoping the Euro gets more on board. I'll be sleeping by then though.
 
Clem282340 said:
Look at that warm nose right over the upstate sc
Click to expand...
It’s the mountains. Cold air is always late to the party when our high pressure placement is to the west. This setup sucks out loud for us. Our time will come in a few more weeks
 
dunno whats up with the Euro but I cant get any precip maps to load :mad: even on the pay site
 
models are super inconsistent right now for sure. I will say it’s a little concerning to see that we are pushing that time frame back again. I will also say I don’t like seeing the SOI so + We need some drops in that to help keep pushing things along. Kudos to the GFS and GEFS for stalling out the MJO in the super crappy phases. Y’all correct me if I’m wrong, but we need some good NEG bursts to keep pushing the MJO eastward right?
2F87838B-04FB-423A-8E8D-26B3A53D105E.png
 
I think the MJO is controlling winter right now, once she moves into cold phases in mid January we all will be happy, models are still pointing to that “ backloaded winter” we all like to say. Weeklies pointed to it last night as well. We are getting closer so as always we sit a wait and wait. Good times ahead boys and girls. I will stay optimistic until Webb or 1300 tells me to jump.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
deltadog03 said:
models are super inconsistent right now for sure. I will say it’s a little concerning to see that we are pushing that time frame back again. I will also say I don’t like seeing the SOI so + We need some drops in that to help keep pushing things along. Kudos to the GFS and GEFS for stalling out the MJO in the super crappy phases. Y’all correct me if I’m wrong, but we need some good NEG bursts to keep pushing the MJO eastward right?
View attachment 9631
Click to expand...
Yes, let's get it to phase 8 and then it can stall as long as it wants.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top