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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
Some gefs support
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By the looks of E13, it includes the over running and from the main low. That's why there's more accumulations and a wide coverage of accumulations over the Carolinas. The low would track off of the FL/GA coast.
 
WxWatch said:
By the looks of E13, it includes the over running and from the main low. That's why there's more accumulations and a wide coverage of accumulations over the Carolinas. The low would track off of the FL/GA coast.
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So, if we want this thing to produce higher accumulation we need to be pulling for a weak low to develop along the front. I think. Correct ???
 
DarkKnight said:
So, if we want this thing to produce higher accumulation we need to be pulling for a weak low to develop along the front. I think. Correct ???
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There could be a very weak low that's embedded, that tracks along the boundary. Then a stronger low may develop on the end of the boundary. With the over running, it may not be all snow. But, with the second main low (if there will be one) there would be more snow because the deeper colder air would be in place.
 
DarkKnight said:
Yup your right... but we do have a mini snowmap for this one now. Also glad to actually see it trending the right way.View attachment 9598
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Good thing is as well is lots of moving parts and still a lot of changes at 500mb from 12z. We need that lead wave to push through and the southern wave to dig and get more neutral.

The interesting thing is this has a lot of similarities to two good hits for central AL(Snowjam of '14 and last December) I would like to see it colder and then try to work in the moisture instead though.
 
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Question on the 2014 January snow how did it start out did it look anything like this when it first showed up on the models then progress the snowfall further south?
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Question on the 2014 January snow how did it start out did it look anything like this when it first showed up on the models then progress the snowfall further south?
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It was actually the opposite and why a major mess was caused. Some areas of the northern part of the Atlanta metro area were just forecast with a "dusting". The thing with that snow was it was very cold though and the main thing that was under forecast was the northern extent of the precip shield.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Question on the 2014 January snow how did it start out did it look anything like this when it first showed up on the models then progress the snowfall further south?
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Had a totally different airmass behind it as well . This system has upper 30s and low 40s the following day . In 2014 in was in the 20s and low 30s the following few days


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GeorgiaGirl said:
It was actually the opposite and why a major mess was caused. Some areas of the northern part of the Atlanta metro area were just forecast with a "dusting".
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Yeah, I think it was originally a 2-3" snow for central AL then dried out and trended south, only to end up 100 miles north than forecasted.
 
Storm5 said:
Had a totally different airmass behind it as well . This system has upper 30s and low 40s the following day . In 2014 in was in the 20s and low 30s the following few days


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That is really the only thing the keeps me from gaining confidence is I'd like to see the cold air settled in quicker and deeper. I've seen it modeled too deep too many times.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, I think it was originally a 2-3" snow for central AL then dried out and trended south, only to end up 100 miles north than forecasted.
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That’s what I was wondering Ik how the storm ended up with with the snow jam in Atlanta but I didn’t know if when it first showed up on the models it was north then trended south before going back north
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
That’s what I was wondering Ik how the storm ended up with with the snow jam in Atlanta but I didn’t know if when it first showed up on the models it was north then trended south before going back north
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I do, I remember the deflation in the thread on TW. It went almost silent for a while. Haha.

I did feel slightly moved for the guys in Montgomery who got freezing rain instead if the 2-4" they were expecting.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
That’s what I was wondering Ik how the storm ended up with with the snow jam in Atlanta but I didn’t know if when it first showed up on the models it was north then trended south before going back north
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That storm was actually model decently by the nam. I will be glad when we do get in the nam range on this. I will be interested on what it has to show. Just wish we could get a updated version of the nam... maybe it will happen soon since they did update the gfs version.
 
Arcc said:
I do, I remember the deflation in the thread on TW. It went almost silent for a while. Haha.

I did feel slightly moved for the guys in Montgomery who got freezing rain instead if the 2-4" they were expecting.
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Really managed to eff up my less than 1 to 2-4” in Atlanta. Quite a mess indeed.

But as others have mentioned, there’s not really an Arctic airmass behind this potential storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is probably worth a read.
https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/
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Just got around to reading. Thanks. That tells me all I really need to know about ssws. Almost half will not have any effect on the trop. This one looks like the non-effect kind currently but its early. Moving on from that thing.

With all the warming at 10mb on the models, all the ensembles still show the trop vortex still chillin at the pole till way out.
 
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Of course we watch this to see if things come together. But without a significant push of cold. I don’t think it works out for most people


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I remember on the night before that storm, saying that I'd accept seeing a dusting to an inch and thought it was possible while being up in Rome, then the next day it started snowing at about 11 AM and did not stop until sometime in the afternoon. One of two pleasant surprises in NW GA for me (have experienced four winter storms up there, but two were pleasant overperformers).

But yeah, this isn't a similar situation.
 
Jessy89 said:
Of course we watch this to see if things come together. But without a significant push of cold. I don’t think it works out for most people


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At the moment This setup would definitely favor the western part of the southeast vs areas to the east


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First look at Euro weeklies: actually slightly better most of weeks 3-6 than the already pretty good looking run from Monday. Only 5 day period in the post 11-15 day period that is warmer is 1/17-22. +PNA intact throughout weeks 3-6.

Edit: -NAO and -AO solid weeks 3-6.
 
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Well, the 18z GFS does show development at the tail end of the boundary. I think there will be interesting runs by far for this time frame within the next several cycles.
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Storm5 said:
At the moment This setup would definitely favor the western part of the southeast vs areas to the east


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Nothing better than swath of snow through central Mississippi and northern Alabama that dies as it hits N. GA.


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Jessy89 said:
Of course we watch this to see if things come together. But without a significant push of cold. I don’t think it works out for most people


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For those on the lee side of the mountains, probably not. It’s still worth watching for those to the west, southwest, and (possibly) further east
 
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