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Pattern Jammin' January

RollTide18 said:
Looks pretty good for us in the Deep Deep South, maybe this will make you feel better @Arcc, it’s not much but it can always trend better, 850s look good, 2m temps look good compared to that the ULLs earlier this month where the temps were too warm.

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It looked very interesting last night as well. Needs some work but it's definitely do able. I'm surprised not much is talked about what the Euro showed last night.
 
That look being shown looks money for a central and south central alabama snowfall. Models never seem to get the northern edge of the precip field right, and it almost always works out. That is a super interesting look that definetley has my attention. What did the Euro show last night?
 
tennessee storm said:
Not be Debbie downer .. but euro wasn’t to exciting ... except you like transient cold air ... cool rains
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In general yes, but for a quick strike, not quite. I haven't looked at the surface, but interesting look at 500mb with weak surface reflection in the GOM.
 

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The latest look on the FV3 has warm nose writtin all over it for Central SC. Those types of set ups never work for us. Cold air is always delayed.
 
RollTide18 said:
Looks pretty good for us in the Deep Deep South, maybe this will make you feel better @Arcc, it’s not much but it can always trend better, 850s look good, 2m temps look good compared to that the ULLs earlier this month where the temps were too warm.

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Looks like all we need is a slightly stronger cold push and we would have a storm couldn’t get interesting over the nxt few days. The models have continued o show something like yesterday’s 0z Canadian showing the big snow
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Looks like all we need is a slightly stronger cold push and we would have a storm couldn’t get interesting over the nxt few days. The models have continued o show something like yesterday’s 0z Canadian showing the big snow
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We need three things, more separation between s/w, one of the waves to dig out west and one to push through and a stronger ridge out west. As crazy as it sounds, it's not far fetched to say it's not that there are similarities to12/08/17 at 500mb
 
Arcc said:
We need three things, more separation between s/w, one of the waves to dig out west and one to push through and a stronger ridge out west. As crazy as it sounds, it's not far fetched to say it's not that there are similarities to12/08/17 at 500mb
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Do you think we can have this happen or are we just waisting our time?
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Do you think we can have this happen or are we just waisting our time?
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No I think it could happen. The models in the past have been known to be too fast with southern waves and the ridge out west has been modeled too weak at times this year. And finally atleast if modeled correctly cold air is decently available.

So I agree with Tide above, probably our best chance of winter weather for AL this year *if* this look holds or improves, but you know how that goes.
 
Arcc said:
We need three things, more separation between s/w, one of the waves to dig out west and one to push through and a stronger ridge out west. As crazy as it sounds, it's not far fetched to say it's not that there are similarities to12/08/17 at 500mb
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I mentioned this earlier this morning, the 5H pattern is at least workable with some slight changes, would probably be more of a threat to central and eastern NC if there is more separation and a late blooming wave at the trough base. At least something out there to watch
 
Ensembles look like they've fallen to crap the last day or two. I think that until the mjo gets settled and we get into phases 8-1-2 we're just not going to be in a good pattern. That still looks like another 2 weeks away at least. I mean Euro says COD in a week. GFS says high amp phase 7? When we see these two agree on phase 8 with consistency, that's when we get back in the game on the models IMO, whenever that is. I'm still holding out hope for January 15 on. I've always said come January 1 if things don't look good long range, then I'll start to worry. I've got about 5 more days before I start pushing the goal posts. It seems like the mjo is running things, and there's just no consistency. So we wait.

Forget the SSW IMO. Split, no split, coupling, maybe no coupling. lol. Just as likely not to do anything for us than to help us, IMO. Last year the MA/NE really benefited in March from the SSW. It would be poetic that we actually do get a major one early enough to help us in February but it doesn't propagate down to the trop. Watch the mjo and that I think tells the tale of winter this year, and timing.

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WxWatch said:
I'm actually going to extend the estimated window for the possible winter storm. I'm estimating the window between the 2nd and the 9th.
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Who do you think sees this winter storm?


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Jessy89 said:
Who do you think sees this winter storm?


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A good portion of the southeastern area. It's hard to say the exact areas right now. But, with a colder pattern in that estimated window, you can bet a lot of people will see an increase chance at frozen precip.
 
Jon said:
Yeah I still think that first map would only be valid probably the first 3 days of Jan or so as the trough will most definitely migrate east. It’s hard to trust the phase 6 maps with this expected SSW... I would think the SSW event would become the driver. It’s hard to tell with all the robust MJO talk... But I agree things will definitely change by mid January. I still think a snow chance exists from Jan 5-11 give or take a day.

The weeklies have been kinda bad, but they still agree with the GEPS here...

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Blocking sets in on most seasonal modeling mid month through February, which should give us the best chance.


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The SSW event and MJO are both driving each other concurrently and the continued kicking of the can down the road in NWP with the PV split and large scale pattern is partially a function of the slower and more amped tropical forcing which the Euro is doing atrocious with, the GFS less so. Likewise, the SSWE will entice a larger MJO event in the WP in early-mid Jan which could have ramifications for ENSO next year if the subseasonal wave is strong and persistent thru phase 7.
 
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Kylo said:
I know Raleigh scored already so can't complain to much but yeah, this isn't going as I hoped either. Looking at this below, we have a big +AO/+NAO with a lovely atlantic ridge through the early/mid part of January. Smart strat people are saying they are not seeing the forecasted mSSW propagate down, which happens, and thus we are left without help from that to develop blocking. #SMH

This is obviously not another 2010 type winter, blocky and cold end to end, that we can all agree on. There is some bad weak nino analogs that are closer to this type look than good ones. I don't come on here hoping for warm weather...I come on here and look at these models hoping for some good news. The JMA seasonal does look great, and MJO does look promising as we get towards mid-January. Weak nino, low solar, a strat that looks very weak at 10hpa. All this says we should see a favorable pattern later in January into February.



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I know it’s easy to get lost in all the big dogs that winter but 2009-10 was not wall-to-wall cold we had a pretty formidable thaw in January 2010 that ended with the storm on the 29th & 30th. I still like the idea I alluded to last week where the next significant threat for wintry weather around here shows up when the MJO reaches phase 7, that puts us in the 2nd-3rd week of January (Jan 7-20)
 
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There has been a lot of bad news concerning the pattern Change. Seem like the model back off on the cold pattern and now it seems like we have to wait until mid or even late January for a cold pattern. Very disappointing and this could be yet another winter where Aiken/Augusta could have a snow less winter.Really don't want another 2014-2015 winter considering while February was cold,most areas south/East of the I 85 corridor didn't have a winter storm(outside of areas some areas in South Carolina that gotten snow from the early November snow event).
 
Storm5 said:
Cmc is close for some next week . Of course the cmc has a cold bias
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Hmm that is very interesting. The GFS is as well, now showing two distinct waves. We may be in business if we get a stronger second wave.
 
Webberweather53 said:
2009-10 was not wall-to-wall cold we had a pretty formidable thaw in January 2010 that ended with the storm on the 29th & 30th. I still like the idea I alluded to last week where the next significant threat for wintry weather around here shows up when the MJO reaches phase 7, that puts us in the 2nd-3rd week of January (Jan 7-20)
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Good point.....I should clarify as i didn't intend to mean every day was BN. I meant, every month was solidly BN, the warmups were the minority, cold won out that winter. We had blocking almost all winter too. But, I think RDU has already beat 09/10 in the snowfall department for this winter and it's not even Jan1.
 
The crux of the issue with SSWs is that nobody can tell how they will affect the pattern other than to say that a disrupted vortex is generally better than a super wound up vortex. And a SSW can disrupt the vortex. Personally, I think it’s fun to talk about, but you might as well flip a coin to determine whether or not it will be helpful. That said, I’d rather have it in the toolkit than not.

Most people had Nino in their winter forecasts this year. Most of those showed the second half of winter being the more favorable period for cold and snow. We’ll know in about two weeks whether we’ll have a shot at getting a good last half of the winter or not. If we get into the end of January without a favorable pattern on the horizon, then we’ll know what that means too.
 
Rain Cold said:
The crux of the issue with SSWs is that nobody can tell how they will affect the pattern other than to say that a disrupted vortex is generally better than a super wound up vortex. And a SSW can disrupt the vortex. Personally, I think it’s fun to talk about, but you might as well flip a coin to determine whether or not it will be helpful. That said, I’d rather have it in the toolkit than not.

Most people had Nino in their winter forecasts this year. Most of those showed the second half of winter being the more favorable period for cold and snow. We’ll know in about two weeks whether we’ll have a shot at getting a good last half of the winter or not. If we get into the end of January without a favorable pattern on the horizon, then we’ll know what that means too.
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We need to pin this: I’m sure over 70% of the SE Winter storms happen after mid January. I’ve said since November I felt like February was the month and I still think the same. Nothing I see changes this opinion of mine.


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FV3 is trending deeper with the southern wave and more separation. That is what we need, the northern wave to pull through first and the second to dive into Texas.
 
FV3 says yes to a winter storm for the western parts of the southeast this run. Think it's the best it's looked so far and honestly I'm going to be ill with this one if it works out as the way it looks on the model as I don't really want to travel this soon and it has me missing snow in Lafayette by 9 days.
 
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