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Pattern Jammin' January

Looks like we have some cold chasing moisture on the GFS inside 163hrs...meh
 
Kylo said:
Webber posted on this earlier but I am surprised at how much the EPS is struggling with it's MJO forecast. Not sure if that is contributing to the model differences but I dug this up from mid Dec. On the left is Euro forecast from Dec 14 for where it should be roughly today. Not even close.

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I see the EPS still has an even lower amp vs the still very strong GEFS! I had expected today the EPS would get stronger as opposed to a
little weaker.
 
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I know we need cold, but I hate how active the northern stream is. Kind of neutralizes our STJ as far as snow is concerned. Cutter city. Bah humbug
 
Still no change to a cold dominated pattern on the latest FV3 (0Z). Just cold in and out.
 
Tonight’s 00z runs left something to be desired. Print out tonight’s 00z snowfall maps, staple them together and tape a dollar bill to the front. So that way when you give it to somebody they’ll have something????‍♂️
 
Analogs, don’t fail us now! You’re all we got!
 
06z gfs says I’ll be golfing by mid January
4a8f3e47bf61d9a03bea377460ea2161.png



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Euro looked more interesting with H5, the trough goes more neutral tilt and a low pops in the Atlantic with cold nearby days 8 and 9. Anyone have maps?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GEFS has abandoned us. It’s starting to look like a piece of crap
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Bummer...EPS wins again. Pattern isn't a complete disaster though, I should say the modeled pattern, and wouldn't take to much to get it better. Though, we have seen this in past winters where the modeled colder patterns fail to come into the day 7-10 range. Like the post I had on the weeklies yesterday.

Queue the gif of someone kicking the can down the road.

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_fh252_trend.gif
 
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Kylo said:
Keep in mind, we will be in high amp ph6 for MJO first 7-10 days of Jan and that's very warm for us.

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But then ph 7 >1, things change, which would be toward mid-January.

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Yeah I still think that first map would only be valid probably the first 3 days of Jan or so as the trough will most definitely migrate east. It’s hard to trust the phase 6 maps with this expected SSW... I would think the SSW event would become the driver. It’s hard to tell with all the robust MJO talk... But I agree things will definitely change by mid January. I still think a snow chance exists from Jan 5-11 give or take a day.

The weeklies have been kinda bad, but they still agree with the GEPS here...

fea5f7e0fd9e4a7b1b17802a637ff5b9.jpg


Blocking sets in on most seasonal modeling mid month through February, which should give us the best chance.


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Kylo said:
Bummer...EPS wins again. Pattern isn't a complete disaster though, I should say the modeled pattern, and wouldn't take to much to get it better. Though, we have seen this in past winters where the modeled colder patterns fail to come into the day 7-10 range. Like the post I had on the weeklies yesterday.

Queue the gif of someone kicking the can down the road.

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Yeah that doesn’t look BN to me. Maybe I should have my eyes checked. We always knew January was going to suck though. Pushing everything back week aftern week is the frustrating part. Not so much the ‘warm temps’ and good ol fashion ‘rain’. The MA forum is starting to panic a bit. That’s cause for concern
 
Jon said:
Yeah I still think that first map would only be valid probably the first 3 days of Jan or so as the trough will most definitely migrate east. It’s hard to trust the phase 6 maps with this expected SSW... I would think the SSW event would become the driver. It’s hard to tell with all the robust MJO talk... But I agree things will definitely change by mid January. I still think a snow chance exists from Jan 5-11 give or take a day.

The weeklies have been kinda bad, but they still agree with the GEPS here...

fea5f7e0fd9e4a7b1b17802a637ff5b9.jpg


Blocking sets in on most seasonal modeling mid month through February, which should give us the best chance.


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About that SSW. Lot of very smart people are scratching there heads on whether it propagates downward. In fairness the same smart people say the models don't handle this well so we shall see. Even if it doesn't propagate down then we have a canonical weak nino, which usually means end of January gets colder in the east and then Feb is fairly solid.

I lean towards end of January into February and we have a 2-3 week window. The blocking has been transient so far and doesn't look any better the next couple of weeks. We have a big trop PV right over the pole. I don't anticipate that changing which means we are hoping for PNA/-EPO to drive things somewhat like 2015. I think if we had another 2015, where we had a 2-3 deep cold and snowy across the SE most would be happy.

Wonder when the last time we had a Dec/Jan +AO/+NAO that flipped in Feb. Most of our blocky winters started off blocky.

 
Kylo said:
About that SSW. Lot of very smart people are scratching there heads on whether it propagates downward. In fairness the same smart people say the models don't handle this well so we shall see. Even if it doesn't propagate down then we have a canonical weak nino, which usually means end of January gets colder in the east and then Feb is fairly solid.

I lean towards end of January into February and we have a 2-3 week window. The blocking has been transient so far and doesn't look any better the next couple of weeks. We have a big trop PV right over the pole. I don't anticipate that changing which means we are hoping for PNA/-EPO to drive things somewhat like 2015. I think if we had another 2015, where we had a 2-3 deep cold and snowy across the SE most would be happy.

Wonder when the last time we had a Dec/Jan +AO/+NAO that flipped in Feb. Most of our blocky winters started off blocky.

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End of January into February with a 2-3 week window would be a fail given the hype going into this winter as there is ZERO guarantee we would score during that window .

We keep adjusting the goal posts in 2-3 week intervals . That’s never a good sign


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Storm5 said:
End of January into February with a 2-3 week window would be a fail given the hype going into this winter as there is ZERO guarantee we would score during that window .

We keep adjusting the goal posts in 2-3 week intervals . That’s never a good sign


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I know Raleigh scored already so can't complain to much but yeah, this isn't going as I hoped either. Looking at this below, we have a big +AO/+NAO with a lovely atlantic ridge through the early/mid part of January. Smart strat people are saying they are not seeing the forecasted mSSW propagate down, which happens, and thus we are left without help from that to develop blocking. #SMH

This is obviously not another 2010 type winter, blocky and cold end to end, that we can all agree on. There is some bad weak nino analogs that are closer to this type look than good ones. I don't come on here hoping for warm weather...I come on here and look at these models hoping for some good news. The JMA seasonal does look great, and MJO does look promising as we get towards mid-January. Weak nino, low solar, a strat that looks very weak at 10hpa. All this says we should see a favorable pattern later in January into February.



14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 312.png
 
Kylo said:
I know Raleigh scored already so can't complain to much but yeah, this isn't going as I hoped either. Looking at this below, we have a big +AO/+NAO with a lovely atlantic ridge through the early/mid part of January. Smart strat people are saying they are not seeing the forecasted mSSW propagate down, which happens, and thus we are left without help from that to develop blocking. #SMH

This is obviously not another 2010 type winter, blocky and cold end to end, that we can all agree on. There is some bad weak nino analogs that are closer to this type look than good ones. I don't come on here hoping for warm weather...I come on here and look at these models hoping for some good news. The JMA seasonal does look great, and MJO does look promising as we get towards mid-January. Weak nino, low solar, a strat that looks very weak at 10hpa. All this says we should see a favorable pattern later in January into February.



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I agree with you on when the best pattern will set up, but like the recent storm we can still get snow outside of blockbuster patterns. No doubt snow chances would increase with blocking which is likely to come mid month and forward.

Everyone should have known this winter would be back loaded and not wall-to-wall. Lol. It’s not even January yet and people are freaking out smh...


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Arcc said:
If this winter fails we should ban the words analog, SSW, polar vortex, and blocking and -NAO, because who knows what that means. No sense in people using fake words anymore.
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Add Modoki, JB, Pioneer, and anything concerning the private act of sloshing your tub. Keep that info to Facebook.
 
Arcc said:
If this winter fails we should ban the words analog, SSW, polar vortex, and blocking and -NAO, because who knows what that means. No sense in people using fake words anymore.
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I wouldn’t say that, keep in mind, the last three big time snowstorms for me (3”+ snow and sleet/zr) have come on Feb 12th, Jan 28th, and Jan 16th. The Deep South really scores big in that month window from Jan 15th-Feb 15th. So there’s still time, I can understand being bummed out with the models but at least it’s not torching.
 
Next week starting to look interesting, gfs and fv3 both have a overrunning event. 6z colder also.
 
Jon said:
I agree with you on when the best pattern will set up, but like the recent storm we can still get snow outside of blockbuster patterns. No doubt snow chances would increase with blocking which is likely to come mid month and forward.

Everyone should have known this winter would be back loaded and not wall-to-wall. Lol. It’s not even January yet and people are freaking out smh...


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Chill buddy. We know it can snow with imperfect patterns, we haven't had blocking in years. Nobody is freaking out, we are discussing the weather. smh
 
Here in Columbia, it has rained 9 of the last 10 weekends including the rain that will fall this weekend, if you count Fri-Sun the weekend. 7 of the last 10 of those have been Friday's.

Now let's hope when the cold finally does come, that we don't get stuck with a dry cold.
 
RollTide18 said:
I wouldn’t say that, keep in mind, the last three big time snowstorms for me (3”+ snow and sleet/zr) have come on Feb 12th, Jan 28th, and Jan 16th. The Deep South really scores big in that month window from Jan 15th-Feb 15th. So there’s still time, I can understand being bummed out with the models but at least it’s not torching.
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I know that, I'm lightening the mood. Even in the worst winters, the chance is high for one big dog chance for most of us. Now that chance may have been wasted on the one that hit NC. But, we can hope.
 
accu35 said:
Next week starting to look interesting, gfs and fv3 both have a overrunning event. 6z colder also.
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Looks pretty good for us in the Deep Deep South, maybe this will make you feel better @Arcc, it’s not much but it can always trend better, 850s look good, 2m temps look good compared to that the ULLs earlier this month where the temps were too warm.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
 
RollTide18 said:
Looks pretty good for us in the Deep Deep South, maybe this will make you feel better @Arcc, it’s not much but it can always trend better, 850s look good, 2m temps look good compared to that the ULLs earlier this month where the temps were too warm.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
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Looks like 2014 part 2 . Sign me up


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Kylo said:
Chill buddy. We know it can snow with imperfect patterns, we haven't had blocking in years. Nobody is freaking out, we are discussing the weather. smh
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Really? How did you take offense to that post? Yes we are discussing weather and I’m literally agreeing with you in my replies to you. What’s the problem?

Also I don’t even know you, buddy.

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