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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
12z GFS and CMC are still much different in regards to the cold next week


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I wish that just one time the cold predicted by the CMC 5-10 days out would verify. Seems like it never has when it was different and more severe than what the other models were showing
 
12z gefs
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1300m said:
That is $ in the bank. I'm increasingly confident we'll see a (possibly multiple) winter weather threat(s) between the 1/7 and 1/20 period.

gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_7.png


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Banks closed for the holidays! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Banks closed for the holidays! :(
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we might be waiting for a while over here on the east side. We’ll go from cutter to runner then we will get crushed by a major Miller A rain event around Feb 10. Fun times ahead( Mack ????‍♂️☹️
 
1300m said:
That is $ in the bank. I'm increasingly confident we'll see a (possibly multiple) winter weather threat(s) between the 1/7 and 1/20 period.

gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_7.png


gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_10.png
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Just waiting for the right time to cash it in.

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Why does the GFS look so sh*tty at 500mb? It’s a convoluted mess with no order and before someone says “it’s just another possible solution”, just don’t. Ok
 
1300m said:
That is $ in the bank. I'm increasingly confident we'll see a (possibly multiple) winter weather threat(s) between the 1/7 and 1/20 period.

gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_7.png


gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_10.png
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Canadian agrees which is nice to see.

Always funny to see the Canadian with those crazy BN temp anomalies for the Rockies.

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Rain Cold said:
Look at how much time it’s spending in the crappy phases vs the good ones.
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What I’m really concerned with is how we’re fixing to run the table on the cold phases from mid Jan thru much of Feb, the slower short term movement only delays the practically inevitable pattern change that’s coming. Unlike the last several previous MJO waves this one is strong and moving much slower and it could be virtually February before we hit the Indian Ocean which also favors colder temps here in late winter and spring. This aligns nicely with favored Niño climo for wintry weather from late Jan thru early March. I’ve got a hunch we might crank out another event the 2nd or 3rd week of January before we even hit this canonical Nino window.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Why does the GFS look so sh*tty at 500mb? It’s a convoluted mess with no order and before someone says “it’s just another possible solution”, just don’t. Ok
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It’s a step down process! AR, TN have to get their snow first, then it steps down over us and crushes ATL to Augusta! :(
 
Storm5 said:
It’s trying but yeah it’s struggling . The eps has been all
Over the place lately

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Webber posted on this earlier but I am surprised at how much the EPS is struggling with it's MJO forecast. Not sure if that is contributing to the model differences but I dug this up from mid Dec. On the left is Euro forecast from Dec 14 for where it should be roughly today. Not even close.

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How is it yesterday looked like January would be cold. Now it’s backed off a good bit on the cold?


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Yep, we always clutch out with a winter storm right when cold is leaving, can't say the same for the storm back in January last winter
 
RollTide18 said:
GFS close to something during the middle of next week

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Man, I’ve seen that look a few times a ways out, and it has turned out nice on down the road. Wish it would get some ensemble support and maybe materialize
 
Parker said:
Man, I’ve seen that look a few times a ways out, and it has turned out nice on down the road. Wish it would get some ensemble support and maybe materialize
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Yeah that looks familiar , only difference is the air behind the system this time seems to be much warmer


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Last edited:
GFS keeping it seasonable and hinting at a mid January thaw. She’s really going out in style.


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This may pose a problem in terms of getting sustained cold after the PV disruption.


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ATLwxfan said:
GFS keeping it seasonable and hinting at a mid January thaw. She’s really going out in style.


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Yep. With the exception of a couple of days its at or above average, some days much above.
 
ATLwxfan said:


This may pose a problem in terms of getting sustained cold after the PV disruption.


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His Eurasia snowcover theory, should keep everyone up at night!
 
@Rain Cold dont put me in timeout for posting this LR stuff but it’s something to look it. Wave entering Baja with good cold press232ADF95-FB64-4E12-A672-8F6CCEFD57DD.pngD7CCDEAC-EB03-441E-9FFA-740944F0B2F5.png
Only 2 weeks away...
 
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