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Pattern Jammin' January

If you want bone chilling cold, this is the look. Cross polar flow with a raging -EPO/+PNA. The two strongest low centers on earth are over the Hudson and west PAC. Anomolies are underdone across NA IMO.

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Yall with knowledge on PV, what would this mean for us? After fighting it hard, the GFS now is inline with the same idea.

gfs_Tz10_nhem_22.png


gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_22.png
 
The gfs is sh***y, how do you go from 39 degrees to 60+ in a area, and not only that but warmth creeped up from the gulf coast to clt in one run ? And inside 180 hours,(talking about the new years storm) I shouldent even be heated over a going to be dead inconsistent model
 
Folks. I think we've finally turned the corner. I think there's no holding back now. the GFS suite has gotten so much better since this morning. That was the lone holdout and it has given way. Now let's see what this Jan-Feb can bring. So much potential has been on paper. Now I think we'll start to see it in real wx.

Next up: 0Z GEFS. Will it be as good as 18z? Dpn't be surprised if it isn't as good as 18Z since 18Z was so good and model runs like to go back and forth somewhat, especially during major pattern changes with a big dispute over the MJO and a looming strongest major SSW in 10 years.
 
I haven't had a lot of time to catch up on modeling, but I am liking the look for early January for the Deep South, oddly. It's a bit early for us, but there is some serious cold possibly coming that may work to suppress a trailing wave or two and get something weaker going in the Gulf that may take a good track for I-20. The bigger system around the 3/4th may be a miss, for that area though.

Too far out for details since the cold hasn't materialized yet, but it's becoming apparent it's likely coming sooner than later.
 
Short-term MJO forecast verification nod to the GFS, with the MJO nearing 3.0 sigma amplitude in phase 5. (shocker... not). The EPS suite could look considerably different in a few days once its MJO forecast corrects slower & more amped, but in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month

CANM_phase_20m_small.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Short-term MJO forecast verification nod to the GFS, with the MJO nearing 3.0 sigma amplitude in phase 5. (shocker... not). The EPS suite could look considerably different in a few days once its MJO forecast corrects slower & more amped, but in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month

View attachment 9548
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Also you should note that the MJO is already stronger than every member of the EPS suite out to day 1!
 
Greensboro has officially had its wettest year on record and few more inches to go. Bet Wilmington and Asheville have to be as close. Places in our mtns, valley towns in NC around Transylvania County that have had over 125 inches this year. Greensboro has also had over 20 inches of snow for the calendar year or darn near close. Been an busy weather year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Short-term MJO forecast verification nod to the GFS, with the MJO nearing 3.0 sigma amplitude in phase 5. (shocker... not). The EPS suite could look considerably different in a few days once its MJO forecast corrects slower & more amped, but in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month

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Look at how much time it’s spending in the crappy phases vs the good ones.
 
Kylo said:
Pretty good model agreement between GEFS/EPS.

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GEFS looks much better IMO, with better blocking up top and a stronger pacific low. 6Z GEFS is plenty cold early January all the way to the end of the run. I think it looks dry though as it's lost the split flow type of setup. I'm not sure what view is best to observe how active the STJ is however.

I feel like we've been chasing this pattern FOREVER.....what's today's status of our Bigfoot sighting, the SSW? I hear there have been real sightings still, but the effects are still unknown. Bigfoot is so elusive, but he's out there!!
 
NCSNOW said:
Greensboro has officially had its wettest year on record and few more inches to go. Bet Wilmington and Asheville have to be as close. Places in our mtns, valley towns in NC around Transylvania County that have had over 125 inches this year. Greensboro has also had over 20 inches of snow for the calendar year or darn near close. Been an busy weather year.
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And the thought of adding this much more. From Raleigh NWS:

"In all, the WPC 7-Day QPF forecast ending at 7pm Jan 1st calls
for anywhere between 2" (mainly east of I-95) to 5" (primarily
western Piedmont) with locally higher amounts certainly a
possibility"
 
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SnowNiner said:
GEFS looks much better IMO, with better blocking up top and a stronger pacific low. 6Z GEFS is plenty cold early January all the way to the end of the run. I think it looks dry though as it's lost the split flow type of setup. I'm not sure what view is best to observe how active the STJ is however.

I feel like we've been chasing this pattern FOREVER.....what's today's status of our Bigfoot sighting, the SSW? I hear there have been real sightings still, but the effects are still unknown. Bigfoot is so elusive, but he's out there!!
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I’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .

I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7


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Storm5 said:
I’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .

I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7


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that's exactly what's gonna happen
 
Storm5 said:
I’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .

I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7


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Yeah, that look has definitely worked in the past with northern stream energy "digging". I just hate that whole digging process. I want it to snow as easy as possible. Keeping the storm south is hard enough with the STJ energy.
 
Storm5 said:
I’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .

I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7


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I think the biggest issue with split flow systems is it requires the jet to undercut your ridge out west. While if you have a strong -EPO or -NAO it doesn't matter, but if not, I've seen it replace arctic air with modified Pacific air and end up too warm.

I'm still waiting on that one special southern stream wave that doesn't require a huge phase aka '93. Until then I'll favor what had worked several times over the past ten years.
 
Wasn’t it the phase over the Deep South in ‘93 that helped so many deep southerners get a memorable storm. The phase caused the cold air to get sucked into the storm and give historic snows so far south. It wasn’t overly cold before the storm.
TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
Wasn’t it the phase over the Deep South in ‘93 that helped so many deep southerners get a memorable storm. The phase caused the cold air to get sucked into the storm and give historic snows so far south. It wasn’t overly cold before the storm.
TW
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That was a triple phase in 93. Everything lined up just right. It really was a winter hurricane.


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Arcc said:
I think the biggest issue with split flow systems is it requires the jet to undercut your ridge out west. While if you have a strong -EPO or -NAO it doesn't matter, but if not, I've seen it replace arctic air with modified Pacific air and end up too warm.

I'm still waiting on that one special southern stream wave that doesn't require a huge phase aka '93. Until then I'll favor what had worked several times over the past ten years.
Click to expand...


Never mind, in '93 the lead southern wave dug down the western ridge, and didn't come from the southern stream.
 
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