If you want bone chilling cold, this is the look. Cross polar flow with a raging -EPO/+PNA. The two strongest low centers on earth are over the Hudson and west PAC. Anomolies are underdone across NA IMO.


E11 for cash out please.![]()
![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It knows it's being fired, so it stopped performing well.I for one am glad that things are looking good for cold weather coming up for the upcoming month
Yup, this is that threat.The cmc is all in on the cold next week along with a possible threat along the way . But remember , it has a cold bias
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Me and @tarheel get crushed..edit: although this setup verbatim would not work imby imo. Still looks pretty on paperYup, this is that threat.![]()
Yeah The Euro isn't much better. Back to cold on the 3rd. Oh the difference 2 runs make.Even the GEFS is flipping like crazy on snowfall. 6z is horrible. View attachment 9544
Short-term MJO forecast verification nod to the GFS, with the MJO nearing 3.0 sigma amplitude in phase 5. (shocker... not). The EPS suite could look considerably different in a few days once its MJO forecast corrects slower & more amped, but in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month
View attachment 9548
Look at how much time it’s spending in the crappy phases vs the good ones.Short-term MJO forecast verification nod to the GFS, with the MJO nearing 3.0 sigma amplitude in phase 5. (shocker... not). The EPS suite could look considerably different in a few days once its MJO forecast corrects slower & more amped, but in line w/ the long-term post-2000 tendency, I'm expecting a legitimate threat for wintry weather to appear in NC once the MJO nears phase 7 sometime around mid-month
View attachment 9548
Look at how much time it’s spending in the crappy phases vs the good ones.
Look at how much time it’s spending in the crappy phases vs the good ones.
Greensboro has officially had its wettest year on record and few more inches to go. Bet Wilmington and Asheville have to be as close. Places in our mtns, valley towns in NC around Transylvania County that have had over 125 inches this year. Greensboro has also had over 20 inches of snow for the calendar year or darn near close. Been an busy weather year.
GEFS looks much better IMO, with better blocking up top and a stronger pacific low. 6Z GEFS is plenty cold early January all the way to the end of the run. I think it looks dry though as it's lost the split flow type of setup. I'm not sure what view is best to observe how active the STJ is however.
I feel like we've been chasing this pattern FOREVER.....what's today's status of our Bigfoot sighting, the SSW? I hear there have been real sightings still, but the effects are still unknown. Bigfoot is so elusive, but he's out there!!
that's exactly what's gonna happenI’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .
I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That's extremely telling great observation!Also you should note that the MJO is already stronger than every member of the EPS suite out to day 1!
I’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .
I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I’d take the look and take my chances all day with energy diving down the western ridge .
I feel like split flows always disappear once we get a good established pattern . It will be funny though when we get the cold and the southern jet shuts off and we go from systems every 3-4 days to one every 5-7
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wasn’t it the phase over the Deep South in ‘93 that helped so many deep southerners get a memorable storm. The phase caused the cold air to get sucked into the storm and give historic snows so far south. It wasn’t overly cold before the storm.
TW
I think the biggest issue with split flow systems is it requires the jet to undercut your ridge out west. While if you have a strong -EPO or -NAO it doesn't matter, but if not, I've seen it replace arctic air with modified Pacific air and end up too warm.
I'm still waiting on that one special southern stream wave that doesn't require a huge phase aka '93. Until then I'll favor what had worked several times over the past ten years.