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Pattern Jammin' January

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@Rain Cold dont put me in timeout for posting this LR stuff but it’s something to look it. Wave entering Baja with good cold pressView attachment 9561View attachment 9560
Only 2 weeks away...
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As long as you don’t mention the term “mid-south” you’re good. Besides, we get most of our snow at two weeks out.

And just on a side note, if it’s ok with everyone, during winter storms, I will preemptively ban all posters getting snow along and north of the US 1/64 corridor in Wake County while my sleet mixes with rain!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I love miller B , apps rubbers! That’s how we get our biggest snows! I’m sure Jan 88 was a miller B! SMDH
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Right now, it’s a Miller 372. That should line up with the MJO getting into Phase 6ish and the SSW twin daughter split.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I know the models are still up and down but I still feel confident of a cold down mid January. Unfortunately 2 weeks always feels like 2 months.


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I feel like we’re riding with every single model run but we really just need to be patient the pattern seems to get better as we go on
 
Tarheel1 said:
Be patient and in March, we will be looking for the daughter vortex lobes! :(
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YESSS!!! I can't wait until we have a March 1993 redux, only with temperatures in the mid 30s and rain/sleet/snow non-accumulating slop. I love the way mother nature mocks us and can't wait for more
 
Rain Cold said:
Haha that’s almost the exact opposite.
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What the heck is up with the weeklies. I still have concern we don’t flip to any kind of sustained cold/threat pattern until end of January. Many ninos have below normal temps first 7-10 days of January then we get warm for 10-14 days until finally we get to Fab Feb.

Strat has to work for us eventually.
 
Kylo said:
What the heck is up with the weeklies. I still have concern we don’t flip to any kind of sustained cold/threat pattern until end of January. Many ninos have below normal temps first 7-10 days of January then we get warm for 10-14 days until finally we get to Fab Feb.

Strat has to work for us eventually.
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Lord, with this kinda talk, we're into March ... can down the road kickin' ... which frankly, I must confess, despite all this Modiki and Pioneer and MJO crap (the latter of the three which I confessedly spout incessantly) ... has been on the Gainesville radar since Turkey Day ... :mad:
 
RollTide18 said:
Guess we’re back to being pessimistic again, for reasons I don’t know why.
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Agreed. Lot of folks on this board already have a big snow event for the winter. RDU above average if they don’t get another flake, same with GSO to INT. Will be considered a great winter regardless.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I love miller B , apps rubbers! That’s how we get our biggest snows! I’m sure Jan 88 was a miller B! SMDH
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GaWx said:
What is this GFS you guys are discussing? I’ve already forgotten it still exists.
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we can’t help but look at it. It’s the default map when you go to Tropical tidbits ??‍♂️
 
I'm not sure if any of you have noticed this possibility. We could have a significant winter threat sometime shortly after the New Year. The frontogenetic boundary front stalls on New Years or shortly after. What could trigger a storm in the southern stream is an upstream shortwave to influence that shortwave that is at the western ridge axis. The deep cold air would already be in place before the storm develops (if there will be a storm system.)
So, we could have over running, and then an actual winter storm system.
6d300dcf834fbe8d8d4d7e342789daca.jpg
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not sure if any of you have noticed this possibility. We could have a significant winter threat sometime shortly after the New Year. The frontogenetic boundary front stalls on New Years or shortly after. What could trigger a storm in the southern stream is an upstream shortwave to influence that shortwave that is at the western ridge axis. The deep cold air would already be in place before the storm develops (if there will be a storm system.)
So, we could have over running, and then an actual winter storm system.
6d300dcf834fbe8d8d4d7e342789daca.jpg
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The models showed something to that extent a couple days ago. Then backed away from that idea.


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Jessy89 said:
The models showed something to that extent a couple days ago. Then backed away from that idea.


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You know how the models do, they "flip flop" all the time. I think we'll see the actual winter storm system again on future model runs. Estimated time range for the possible winter storm, 2nd-4th.
 
Guess if we going to use negatively and complaining please feel free to use our banter & venting forum. Thank you ???
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not sure if any of you have noticed this possibility. We could have a significant winter threat sometime shortly after the New Year. The frontogenetic boundary front stalls on New Years or shortly after. What could trigger a storm in the southern stream is an upstream shortwave to influence that shortwave that is at the western ridge axis. The deep cold air would already be in place before the storm develops (if there will be a storm system.)
So, we could have over running, and then an actual winter storm system.
6d300dcf834fbe8d8d4d7e342789daca.jpg
Click to expand...

This timeframe is definitely still worth keeping an eye on I think. May not be a big one but it seems like if it plays out well it could bring a couple inches of snow for some areas of the southeast.

Larry, I do wish the FV3 was the top choice on tropicaltidbits, since the GFS is going to be dead soon.
 
Flash flood watch for LIX (New Orleans NWS watch area) for the system coming through the MS valley tomorrow and tomorrow night.
 
Rain Cold said:
As long as you don’t mention the term “mid-south” you’re good. Besides, we get most of our snow at two weeks out.

And just on a side note, if it’s ok with everyone, during winter storms, I will preemptively ban all posters getting snow along and north of the US 1/64 corridor in Wake County while my sleet mixes with rain!
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Thank god

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Rain Cold said:
As long as you don’t mention the term “mid-south” you’re good. Besides, we get most of our snow at two weeks out.

And just on a side note, if it’s ok with everyone, during winter storms, I will preemptively ban all posters getting snow along and north of the US 1/64 corridor in Wake County while my sleet mixes with rain!
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
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