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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
Merry Christmas from the FV3. The 06z run was very cold
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I just saw this and also that the last 3 FV3 runs are much colder than the respective GFS runs out in week 2. I mean I don’t know that they could be much further apart at H5 and the surface! So, had this already been operational and the old GFS no longer been running, we wouldn’t have even seen these disappointing (mild) GFS runs at all and been more confident about the cold pattern change coming in early Jan., especially with the colder trend of the recent GEFS runs☃️.

Can we get a special SouthernWx grant for a toss of the op GFS from now on? ;) After all, it has a clear and significant warm bias, especially out in week 2. I hope the FV3 doesn’t have a cold bias though. The good news is that the GEFS current version has hardly any bias and it is going to continue to run into early 2020.
 
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GaWx said:
I just saw this and also that the last 3 FV3 runs are much colder than the respective GFS runs out in week 2. I mean I don’t know that they could be much further apart at H5 and the surface! So, had this already been operational and the old GFS no longer been running, we wouldn’t have even seen these disappointing (mild) GFS runs at all and been more confident about the cold pattern change coming in early Jan., especially with the colder trend of the recent GEFS runs☃️.

Can we get a special SouthernWx grant for a toss of the op GFS from now on? ;) After all, it has a clear and significant warm bias, especially out in week 2. I hope the FV3 doesn’t have a cold bias though. The good news is that the GEFS current version has hardly any bias and it is going to continue to run into early 2020.
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This is for you Larry !!!
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GaWx said:
I just saw this and also that the last 3 FV3 runs are much colder than the respective GFS runs out in week 2. I mean I don’t know that they could be much further apart at H5 and the surface! So, had this already been operational and the old GFS no longer been running, we wouldn’t have even seen these disappointing (mild) GFS runs at all and been more confident about the cold pattern change coming in early Jan., especially with the colder trend of the recent GEFS runs.

Can we get a special SouthernWx grant for a toss of the op GFS from now on? ;) After all, it has a clear and significant warm bias, especially out in week 2. I hope the FV3 doesn’t have a cold bias though. The good news is that the GEFS current version has hardly any bias and it is going to continue to run into early 2020.
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Yes.... approved tossing of the old heading out the door GFS. As far as SouthernWx is concerned, GFS has left the building

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Kylo said:
I know this is a big “if” but I wonder any other January had this high of amplitude phase 7.

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I have never seen anything like the degree of divergence between the GEFS and EPS with the MJO. Last winter there was a divergence and Webb was involved in those discussions, but the divergence was nothing like this. That’s when I learned the GEFS USUALLY (not ALWAYS) does better in phases 6-7 from when it is still in phase 5. Indeed, in that case the GEFS ended up verifying more closely. However, I just had a long discussion with a Radiant met. about the MJO. They think this GEFS MJO is bogus this time and are going much more with the EPS much lower amp and quicker transition to phase 8. They said the last time the GEFS showed a high amp like this in that area (in Nov?) that it verified too strong. He is going with a slightly higher amp and slightly slower move (a small deference to GEFS) but a more similar timing to the EPS over to the cold phase 8. Besides, the cold 11-15 of the ensemble consensus jibes much better with a low amp 7-8 than with a super high amp of 6-7.

If you look at this, it is giving additional hints as to why the GEFS will likely verify way too strong:

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#thumb

In addition to the low amp quicker move of the EPS, we have the JMA and CDN which have way lower amp and a faster move like the EPS.

JMA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/JMAN_phase_51m_full.gif

CAN (though this run is 2 days old):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/CANM_phase_20m_full.gif


So, the GEFS is way out on its own with its record or near record strong phase 6-7. Therefore, regardless of what Webb taught us about the GEFS often doing better than the EPS from phase 5, this met and I are going with the EPS MJO likely verifying more closely than the insane GEFS in this case. I think it will correct somewhat toward the GEFS and end up between but somewhat closer to the EPS/JMA/CAN consensus most likely. We’ll see.

As this met put it, when you have both a gigantic tropics (MJO) disagreement and a rare very strong SSW (Arctic) happening at the same time, it is no wonder why the models are struggling and will likely continue to struggle. He emphasizes for the 11-15 always going with the consensus of the various ensemble runs much more than the operational runs. By the way, he agreed that the FV3 may not have the warm bias of the GFS, but he said it is actually more volatile from run to run and is thus not a big fan of it.
 
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I believe in the FV3, and still looking for some winter storm fun starting the weekend of Jan 4.
 
Kylo said:
I know this is a big “if” but I wonder any other January had this high of amplitude phase 7.

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Only one was close and that was in 2018, when Jan 31 peaked at 3.93 in phase 6 (just before crossing over into phase 7) and at 3.93 in phase 7 on Feb 6 vs this GEFS prediction of just over 4.00. That was the case Webb was discussing with us last year when interestingly a similar very high amp phase 6-7 prediction of the GEFS from when it was in phase 5 actually verified very closely and much better than the EPS. However, the EPS was then at a good bit higher amp into phases 6-7 than it is now. So, the divergence is greater this time.

So, partially based on this, I think the EPS will again end up being at too low an amp in phases 6-7 and moving too quickly. So, I think it will correct over the next few days. However, I’ll be very shocked if we end up with a repeat of the record high Jan/Feb phase 6-7 amp (3.93) of last winter since it had not happened at even all that near that strength back at least to 1975 and because the EPS was then not forecasting as low an amp as it is now showing.
 
So the FV3 and CMC says the Polar Express is coming to the mid south the first week of Jan... the GFS says we'll be playing golf in our short sleeves... Euro says something in between... how can there be so much confusion on temps only 10 days away?
 
I'm driving with a close friend of mine just after New Years from southeast Texas to Phoenix, AZ for this year's AMS Conference and we plan to do a lot of sight seeing along the way in the southern Rockies & four Corners regions.

I've never seen more than 18" of snow on the ground before and the Euro is throwing me a huge bone with a parade of storms to open up the New Year and feet of snow in the mountains of Arizona & New Mexico.

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png
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My body is ready.
 
They should have left the GFS and Euro alone. I believe both were better before they changed them despite how stupid the old GFS was at times.
 
The 12z FV3 looks more like the GFS in the medium range and backed off the crazy cold


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From a @webberweather post here on 1/25/18:

“The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect").”

Also from Webb then:
“The EPS didn't even have the MJO making it much above 1.5 a few days ago and several days prior it kept the MJO in the COD before it had a chance to cross into phase 7 & 8, it's clearly moving the goal posts in favor of the GFS. According to Kim (2014), the EPS has a profound dampening bias w/ the MJO in the Pacific (which is even more profound than the CFS/GFS's over amplification biases there. Like I explained earlier this one of the few and rare instances I'd give the GFS credence, the ECMWF has been playing catch up for the past few weeks if you've been following the daily forecasts...”
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At that time (1/25/18) when it was in a similar position to today in high amp 5, the GEFS had a fcast of an amp of 4 in phases 6 and 7. See 1st image below.
Then the EPS amp had risen to 2.5 in phases 6 and 7 from being within the circle more than a few days back per Webb. See 2nd image below.
Today, the GEFS once again has a 4 in 6-7 (deja vu). See 3rd image.
However, the EPS forecast for phases 6-7 has a much lower than 2.5 amp that it has been holding more or less for several days and it has agreement from the JMA and CAN fwiw. It’s highest in phase 7 is only ~1.3. See 4th image.

What’s my latest prediction? The EPS will correct in the direction of the GEFS to a higher amp but not nearly to 4.0 since that’s only happened once on record in Jan or Feb (last winter as mentioned) and the EPS forecast for phases 6-7 is at a much lower amp currently vs last winter when the MJO was about where it currently is in phase 5.
 

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It’s what you want to see going forward. Really locked in. Nothing transient about it from 180’ish til the end of the run. It’s only a matter of time before someone gets crushed. I think the first event of the year will hit going into the second week of January. It will be an southern overrunning event mainly for areas west of he mountains. Areas east will pick up some slop.
 
Bout 12 squirrels in the back yard right now digging around. They gettin ready for the pipe bustin cold!
 
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