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Pattern Jammin' January

Faco Thomas said:
Hopefully we won't have to wait too long for this pattern to change.It would be disappointing if we don't get snow or Significant cold with this SSW that is occurring.
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We won't be waiting much longer for the pattern to change. Also, it will be getting really cold, no doubt about it.
 
I think the old Gfs is dying off it’s about to be replaced with a way better model. Look at the two models at 00z way more detail with the Gfs v2 .. soon it will take over
 
Here comes the cold on the 0z FV3, and maybe some over running. You can see those pieces of energy along the STJ.
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lol the difference between the CMC and GFS at day 10 is absurd here, only about 50 degrees...
 
Wow, almost 100 hours of below freezing in Huntsville on the fv3. ????
Then getting close to 10 degrees for the lows.
 
And what happens on the fv3 off STJ gets killed by the attic air. ??? wow. Precip dies in west Texas.

But one thing to take away from this is. I think the cold is coming. But I don’t think it will be this exteme is I don’t think it will kill our moisture feed. Only time will tell.
 
Also something I overlooked. Close to a hit at day 9 on the fv3 gfs. Wouldn’t take much for this to a hit..

8B2F4DBE-C9F6-412E-B321-537A3E4624B4.png
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The northern stream press is so strong on the FV3 that it would be hard for a system to develop. However, it's possible that pulses of energy could move along the STJ and bring snow areas along the south.
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Well. Y’all have been whining and crying about how we need some cold air. Here it is. Good luck getting the STJ to pump something through that. Hope you guys are happy ??‍♂️
FV3 also got a finger of sub freezing temps south of Tampa late in the run. Fun times
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DarkKnight said:
Wow, almost 100 hours of below freezing in Huntsville on the fv3. ????
Then getting close to 10 degrees for the lows.
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Looks like they left the long range cold bias in the new GFS! :(
GFS liked to drop 1070 mb highs into the Great Plains at days 7-10 , on the reg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Well. Y’all have been whining and crying about how we need some cold air. Here it is. Good luck getting the STJ to pump something through that. Hope you guys are happy ??‍♂️
FV3 also got a finger of sub freezing temps south of Tampa late in the run. Fun times
View attachment 9506
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We all know that’s a little over done, but some of Larry’s stats showed a pattern coming up, using analogs, that lead to Deep South snows, I-10 and 20 kind of stuff that whiffs the Upstate!? Oh the irony
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Well. Y’all have been whining and crying about how we need some cold air. Here it is. Good luck getting the STJ to pump something through that. Hope you guys are happy ??‍♂️
FV3 also got a finger of sub freezing temps south of Tampa late in the run. Fun times
View attachment 9506
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That’s Feb 1899 kind of shiznit right there!! Think that was 1062-64 mb, i think!?
 
Extrapolate this look 3 more days, day 18 on the GFSv3, and that’s a money look! Board wide crush job, Southern slider, delayed but not denied!F337565E-30EB-4AA0-A786-C1EA14D7ED86.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
We all know that’s a little over done, but some of Larry’s stats showed a pattern coming up, using analogs, that lead to Deep South snows, I-10 and 20 kind of stuff that whiffs the Upstate!? Oh the irony
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They did? If you say so.

Seriously, though, it depends on what factors/indices you analyze. I think you’re getting this from the 5 1958-77 SAV accumulating snows and several N FL snows all occurring within about 1-3 weeks after a major SSW of the caliber of the current one. In all fairness though, you did refer to “some of” the stats rather than all of the stats. Indeed, there are other factors/indices to consider (weak El Niño/-NAO/+PNA/MJO, etc) as well as other storms that occurred during those same periods. It may not be as simple as how you stated. I was going to look up how GSP did in 1958, 1968, 1973, and 1977 but the site I use is not available due to the govt shutdown! Why can’t this site still be available during a shutdown? Server shutdown?
 
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Storm5 said:
For those of us chasing cold . The 00z gefs is much colder vs the 00z gfs OP run


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The GEFS has often been colder than the op GFS because the op GFS has a warm bias not had by the GEFS. In addition, due to colder recent GEFS trends, the overall 1-2 week latest (6Z) GEFS has actually become colder than the latest (0Z) EPS. So, they switched again though that may be temporary.
 
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