• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

12z GFS is a Syracuse special. Total poundage through the end of the run. Major toss
 
Storm5 said:
I’m not worried about getting the cold . I’m far more concerned about overbearing cold that will suppress the southern storm track and or the southern jet taking a break and we are left banking on a Vort diving down the backside of a tall western ridge. For our area, that scenario has payed off well over the last 8 years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Im about convinced that is the best way we get snow. Ive been waiting for the southern stream superwave out of a split flow since i started watching forums 15 years ago. Im still waiting. However I run out of fingers for the threats from the setup mentioned above.
 
HM has been putting lots of great content on his twitter feed. Some of it is just above my head, but this stuck out:
 
Winning
2b3a508f01eb707a91a943d79f94bf6d.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
To the powers that determine this: Can we have a special toss of the 12Z GFS if we promise not to toss the 18Z? Please let us toss this.
Click to expand...
Yep, what could go wrong, did go wrong, lol. How can they be so wrong so far out?? It's like weather disappearing magic, lol. It's ain't natural, Larry, it just ain't right!
 
GaWx said:
To the powers that determine this: Can we have a special toss of the 12Z GFS if we promise not to toss the 18Z? Please let us toss this.
Click to expand...
Larry,
I was about to PM you and ask much (in fact, exactly) the same, along with a follow-up: Have we moved to an alternative universe?
Phil
 
I'm not believing that 12z GFS run, warmth? I don't think so. Tossing that run and all runs that show dumpster fires. It's going to get cold, I mean cold! I bet some days in early Jan. won't warm above 35°
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not believing that 12z GFS run, warmth? I don't think so. Tossing that run and all runs that show dumpster fires. It's going to get cold, I mean cold! I bet some days in early Jan. won't warm above 35°
Click to expand...

There are a lot of moving parts in the atmosphere right now, models will swing dumpster fire to ice age until it figures out the pattern change. I will give it until New Years. Might be day to day for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NoSnowATL said:
There are a lot of moving parts in the atmosphere right now, models will swing dumpster fire to ice age until it figures out the pattern change. I will give it until New Years. Might be day to day for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
True, there are a lot of moving parts. But, a SSW event is likely, a "daughter" PV is very possible that it will drop down into the mid latitudes. It may last for many, many of days, but I don't think it will be locked into place. I say this because, it's possible the PV will fluctuate, going back further north and coming down further south at times. If a PV gets locked into place, the STJ would propably cut off. During the times of the PV going further north, that's when the window opens for the opportunity for a weather system. It's very possible that the PV will come down further south again, as a storm pops up in the southern stream giving us the window for frozen precipitation.
 
Storm5 said:
Yep nothing is consistent. Ensembles are flipping just as much as the OP runs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, that’s what I am hoping. Yeah, it’s below normal in the SE in the day 10-15 but this will be disappointing if yet another winter with a +NAO. No blocking, Atlantic ridge. Guess we get it done like we have been...+PNA.

As someone usually says...just kicking the can down the road.

7D38753C-4F06-4A0D-AE2B-E0F7BB07163E.png
 
Kylo said:
Yeah, that’s what I am hoping. Yeah, it’s below normal in the SE in the day 10-15 but this will be disappointing if yet another winter with a +NAO. No blocking, Atlantic ridge. Guess we get it done like we have been...+PNA.

As someone usually says...just kicking the can down the road.

View attachment 9482
Click to expand...

Well this is shocking....Not


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
Yeah, that’s what I am hoping. Yeah, it’s below normal in the SE in the day 10-15 but this will be disappointing if yet another winter with a +NAO. No blocking, Atlantic ridge. Guess we get it done like we have been...+PNA.

As someone usually says...just kicking the can down the road.

View attachment 9482
Click to expand...


I’ll take this , at least it’s cold
400764bdb4ffcb0142fe895d9ff5d2f7.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even tho a -NAO is pretty important, it's pretty overrated, pna/epo/ao is more important to me
Click to expand...

It’s not overrated but it sure is rare, we haven’t had a winter month with a -NAO since winter of 2013, 6 years ago. Feb 2013 had a weak -NAO, so 20 out of the past 21 winter months have been positive. Ugghhh

I will happily take a -AO/-EPO combo but we got some work to get that. The bloody trop PV is consolidated right over the pole.
 
The CFS has been very, very consistent with this look. It's not backing away from the SSW, good times are coming and so is old man winter!
631ac733797028d63c17713ad810296a.jpg
 
Well, it doesn't look like we will be lacking precip. I have been out of the loop the past few days, but noticed TWC has rain this Thursday night all the way to the next Thursday, then it has rain and snow until next Saturday. That sounds like a miserable week if we just get rain. Hoping it turns colder and we get some snow Jan 3-5.
 
One day, maybe one day, the cold will be around for the moisture!?? 095907F6-8118-4D70-8872-117D63A595FF.png
 
Storm5 said:
Larry , time to toss the 18z gfs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

And the latest weeklies...let's just do one trash run tonight.

For good news, the GFS does follow up the NY's strat attack with another significant warming. This is better than snow.

stratgif.gif
 
Weeklies do look great to end January and start February. Don't ask what happens before that.
14-km EPS 46-DAYS Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 912.png
14-km EPS 46-DAYS Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 1080.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top